Irrelevant Bush? McCain gets 20% of Dems vs. Hillary? ARG poll results

[Pirate Smile]

From Taegans Political Wire

Looking Ahead to 2008

Guest contributor Dick Bennett of the American Research Group analyzes his latest poll findings, including the newly-released party breaks for the 2008 presidential primary races and a general election matchup between Hillary Clinton and John McCain in seven states.


It's interesting to note John McCain's strength among independents in the primary preferences. The lowest McCain gets among independents is 48% in South Carolina. McCain earned this support in 2000 and it makes him a strong front-runner. What is most surprising is that his support remains after 7 years and that the current political environment actually enhances it -- McCain should be thanking Bush for whacking him so hard after the New Hampshire primary in 2000 because now McCain amazingly is untouched by Bush's failings and any Republican misdeeds. This inoculation, although unpleasant for McCain at the time, seems to have a long life. Also, my experience with presidential candidates of both parties is that those running behind ("Yes, but how do you plan to win?") always point to independents as a way to keep their campaigns alive (Joe Lieberman was the last to do it in 2004), but McCain's support among independents prevents that on the Republican side.

On the Democratic side, support among Democrats for Hillary Clinton is less intense. This lack of intensity can be seen in the ballot match-ups with McCain. McCain receives over 20% of the Democratic vote against Clinton in 4 states, three of which are "blue" states. Clinton may be the front-runner, but it is more in the sense of the 1976 or 1992 primaries. A large field will help her, but one candidate becoming the "anti-Hillary" will hurt her because she does not gain additional support as the field narrows. Our interviewers report that the intense negatives for Clinton reach across party lines as there are some Democrats with as strong reactions against her as Republicans, so the real race will be who can become the anti-Hillary the fastest.

In a new national survey on the national economy, Bush's job ratings are unchanged even though people are less pessimistic about the future of the economy and their own personal finances. Bush does take a hit among some Republicans when ratings of the economy turn down and he does get most of them back when the ratings improve, but his ratings do not improve among others. This is most unusual and a part of the "post 9/11" world.

There also seems to be a disconnect happening with Bush, with voters eager to look at/for new leadership. It may be impossible in the post 9/11 world for voters to view presidents as irrelevant, but a sizeable group of voters did during the final year of George H. W. Bush's presidency and it seems to be happening to his son. While it is based on a limited and non-projectable sample, our panel's response to the 2006 State of the Union address provides an example of the disconnect. The poor response to the speech falls on Bush and his speechwriters. As was obvious from his previous addresses, Americans are not interested in hearing about explanations of past performance and are very interested in hearing about the future. By the time the 2006 speech got to the future, our panel members, including Republicans -- an exception from past addresses, did not find the president's vision very engaging. This is a formula speech. How do you fail at that? I contend that a major part of the problem is this disconnect and that the White House is unaware of it as was the White House in 1990 and 1991.

-- Dick Bennett is president of the American Research Group.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/02/23/looking_ahead_to_2008.html

[central scrutinizer]

1. Would that be John "I hate gooks" McCain?

The same one who laughed and joked with Bushco while people were clinging to roofs in New Orleans?

[xchrom]

2. this is what comes of leaving these repuke hero images unchallenged.

mccain is a hero in an alternate universe.

he was, unfortunately, a pow -- he has more than made up for that with his innumerable betrayals of the american people with his time in dc.

[Kahuna]

7. Right. Kerry legitimized him when he allowed the VP speculation

to go on.

[Pirate Smile]

10. For the love of his country he should have done the VP thing

and we would have had a unity government with sky-high approval and a President Kerry.

No more ruling by polarization and secrecy, with sanity in foreign and domestic policy.

I would have taken it.

[formernaderite]

11. arghh...I fought hard to forget that...

I've never been able to stomach McCain, nor understand his attraction to some on the left.

[xchrom]

12. indeed. we had some more of the media spotlight then.

we gave it away on reagan -- we had better not with mccain.

[sendero]

3. If this doesn't spell out...

.. just how weak a Clinton candidacy would be, I don't know what would.

[Yupster]

15. But if the primary season is compressed like last time

there won't be time for an anti-Hillary candidate to emerge.

By the time the other candidates have sorted themselves out the race will be over.

I'm for a longer primary season.

I also think all 50 states should be picked out of a hat each primary season so the order of the primaries is randomized and changed each four years.

I don't see whyNew Hampshire and Iowa should have such a major say every time while big states like California often have no say at all since the race is over before they vote.

[sendero]

19. I totally agree...

.. that it is time to stop letting unrepresentative states like Iowa and NH pick our nominee, that is for sure.

[emulatorloo]

4. Everybody (except me) LOVES John McCain

If he gets the Repug Nomination, he is almost unbeatable.

[ProSense]

13. I still don't buy it. These 2008 polls are all kooky (too many variables)

Other polls have McCain behind Guiliani and tied with Rice:

WNBC/Marist Poll. Feb. 13-15, 2006. Asked of Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.5.

"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are ?"

2/13-15/06
Condoleezza Rice 22
Rudy Giuliani 22
John McCain 22

Without Rice, Bush:

2/13-15/06
Rudy Giuliani 28
John McCain 24
Newt Gingrich 8

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Feb. 9-12, 2006. N=400 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

Rudy Giuliani 33%
John McCain 28%
George Allen 7 %

Snip...

Condoleezza Rice (vol.) 1%

http://www.pollingreport.com/WH08rep.htm


General Election:

WNBC/Marist Poll. Feb. 13-15, 2006. N=931 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

.

"If the 2008 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are ?"
2/13-15/06

RudyGiuliani (R) 48 %
Hillary Clinton (D) 47 %
Unsure 5 %

http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#misc

[MasonJar]

5. McCain is just reaping the benefit of the anti-Bushites. He lost my

respect when he kissed up to the big W, and when he called for more war.

[Pirate Smile]

9. He was and is all for the Iraq War. That should be hung around

his neck like an albatross.

[July]

6. If McCain ends up their candidate, we've got to get the facts out.

His occasional blunt remark has endeared him to people who know nothing else about him. His voting record and his slavish following of Bush (after being smeared by him) have to be mentioned, over and over and over again.

[Pirate Smile]

8. The media will campaign for him all on their own.

[July]

14. Sadly, you are right. nt

[iconoclastNYC]

16. Press take on Dean - unelectable. Hillary - inevitable!!!

Nothing more needs to be said about the DLC's connection to the corporate media.

[AtomicKitten]

17. Why get your panties in a bunch??? It's just speculation.

This is just a little game the media plays. The media has lots of stock material on Hillary, having been first lady for 8 years and all that, but she is slipping in the Dem polling. Instead of 3:1 ahead of her next closest possible contender, she's at 2:1.

Instead of all the hang-wringing and gnashing of teeth and really nasty attitudes about that theoretical possibility, it would behoove people to kick back, let the media do their thing, and not give a rat's ass. There's nothing we can do to change their reindeer games, that's just what they do, so let it slide.

Of more concern is the alleged 20% crossover vote, creepy to me as a Californian because the pain still stings recalling idiots in my state thinking Schwarzenegger was a great idea. Those same people don't think so now. And my "I told you so" is little consolation. I think McCain is the most dangerous opposition.

My most fervent prayer is for Al Gore to step into the fray and kick the every lovin' shit out of whatever Republican they put up.

[depakid]

18. Wouldn't surprise me

The far right spent 100's of millions demonizing her for years and years. That's got to have a substantial effect.

The McMedia has also spent a considerable amount of time & money making the right wing McCain out to be some sort of moderate.

Not that I trust any of these stupid polls- but those numbers are more or less what I'd expect to see.