Sinking Economy

[unlawflcombatnt]

Friday's Durable Orders showed a huge monthly decline, marking a -10.2% change from the previous month. Not only did Durable Orders decline sharply, the decline was MUCH worse than predicted by the "experts." As of Monday, February 20th, the Market anticipated only a -0.3% change in Durable Orders. By Thursday, February 23rd, the anticipated decline had been revised further to -2.0%. The actual -10.2% change was markedly worse than expected. Below is a graphic representation of this decline.



Below is a copy from Briefing.com showing the actual numbers.



This information can also be found at Briefing.com's Durable Orders

Non-defense durable orders declined 8.1%. Capital goods orders fell even more, with a 1 month change of -23.1%. (The previous day's prediction was for a change of only 0.0%. Off just a little.) Most of this change was in Non-defense Capital goods, which experienced a -20.0% change from the previous month. (The previous day's anticipated change was only -0.2%. Again, off by a just a tad.) Machinery orders declined 2.5%.

The capital goods order decline of 23% suggests a similar decline in true capital investment. It indicates a huge decline in demand for capital goods, as well as a decline in demand for production those capital goods facilitate.

These numbers are NOT indicative of an economy that is "strong, and getting stronger." They're indicative of an economy that is "weak, and getting weaker." They're indicative of an economy that's sinking. And sinking rapidly.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[NMDemDist2]

1. K&N this should go on the front page n/t

[applegrove]

2. Bush didn't get a huge infusion of cash (social security reform) into the

stock market ... like he wanted. That huge sell off of assets didn't happen. They'll have to find another way to pump up the addiction.

[unlawflcombatnt]

3. Exactly

Social Security Privatization's only purpose was to subsidize Wall Street with taxpayers' money. Now the only way they can directly over-invest and overvalue it is with private money. (Though tax deductions for IRAs and 401Ks certainly subsidize it indirectly.)

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[DemInDistress]

5. good point..

bush rewarded Big Oil with Iraq (not yet stable)
bush rewarded Drug Makers new drug plan
bush rewarded Arms Industry and
bush tried to reward Wall Street with a lifetime of Social Security money..

Controls Congress
Controls SCOTUS
I can't see how the chimp wont soon impose Martial Law so as to not lose his grip.

[unlawflcombatnt]

6. M3 no longer reported

The M3 money supply, or the total money supply, will no longer be reported publicly starting in March. Many in the financial industry use this to watch inflation, among other things. Now it will be even harder to accurately measure our economy. Just what the Bush Corporatocrats want -- more secrecy.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[depakid]

8. I have a feeling that certain people will know

what's going on with the money supply. If anything, all that's going to do is make the markets more volatile.

[DemInDistress]

12. secrecy must be maintained at all times or the people

will revolt and take us down. What is going to happen when Iran opens for business? If the US economy crashes will bush declare Martial Law? Dark days storm clouds brewing new wars imminet all part and parcel of the bush crime family. Just my prediction> Martial Law before Memorial Day.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. According to theory the top 2 percenters should be pumping cash

into the economy like there's no tomorrow.


No?

:freak:

[unlawflcombatnt]

4. Briefing.com's Commentary

I also want to point out that, as of this writing, Briefing.com has not changed their commentary since the previous day's (and week's) underestimate of Durable Goods figures. Some might find it interesting to copy down their current commentary and see how much they change it over the next several days. It's very optimistic at present, because it hasn't yet addressed the cliff that Durable Orders fell off of today.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[PsycheCC]

7. Thanks for more clarity in the foggy world of economics!

I really appreciate the way you always give both the numbers and your clear explanation of their meaning.

[unlawflcombatnt]

9. Your Welcome

Thanks for the compliment. I'm trying to make sure the Republican spin machine doesn't once again pull the wool over our eyes as to how the economy is doing. Today's report is not only bad, it's very bad.

The Bush buffoonacracy is in so much hot water in so many other areas that reports like today's often get little attention.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[Doctor_J]

10. We turned the corner!

that's the economic lie. It corelates to "We're makin' progress" in Iraq.

[femrap]

11. That botton line of 'Defense Cap Goods....'

Am I reading that correctly? Defense Cap Goods were DOWN 64.3% in January?

What does that mean? We're gonna pull out of Iraq?

[unlawflcombatnt]

14. Bottom Line

Yes, you read the bottom line right. I can't tell you what it means, however. Maybe the Defense Department is producing consumer goods. Secretly. And only Dick "Quick-Draw" McCheney can declassify this information, since he was given that power by "executive order." So we should ask him.

Just make sure his shotgun isn't loaded when you ask.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[femrap]

16. I thought this Defense Cap. Goods category

represented all of the 'war toys' produced and sold....like all of the stuff from Lockheed, General Dynamics....the stuff that wars are made of....bombs, tanks, etc.

I thought it was the good ol' taxpayers' $ buying this stuff from these war companies...I thought that had been the stuff keeping the economic indicators in the positive.

If this production is not reflected here, then where is it reflected?

[unlawflcombatnt]

22. Defense Capital Goods

You might be right. Technically, capital goods are supposed to represent goods used to produce end products, not the end products themselves. It seems unlikely that the Defense Department is using its capital goods to "produce" anything (except orphans and widows.) The numbers are in the $2-6 billion range, however. This seems a little small if it represents the war toys produced. With a Defense budget in the $450-500 billion range, it seems the war supplies cost would be larger. I can't believe military salaries account for the rest.

Here's a link to Defense Dept. Contracts for February. http://www.defenselink.mil/contracts/2006/ct20060224-12557.html

It looks like most of this is being spent on war toys. I haven't added them together. If this amount is in the same range as Defense Capital Goods expenditures, then war toys probably are what they're referring to.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[Zynx]

23. No. That is just statistical noise.

These month to month numbers vary a lot. Defense orders were up huge in December and then fell back in January. Sometimes the orders fall on weird months.

[unlawflcombatnt]

25. Defense Capital Goods

They're only a small part of the total anyway, in the range of $2-6 billion total. The decline only represented $4.4 billion.

In contrast, non-defense capital orders decreased $17.8 billion, or 20%, down to $71.6 billion. Thus defense capital goods changes are not prime movers of the total capital goods orders.

unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

[AX10]

13. KICK and recomended!

This is headline material!

[unlawflcombatnt]

15. Thanks

Thanks for the compliment and the kick.:)

[CAG]

17. Was this announced during trading hours today? If so, why didn't

we see a massive dive in the markets? If not, will Monday be another black monday?

This variation seems huge; does a 10% swing have any precedence?

[unlawflcombatnt]

18. Largest Decline in 5 1/2 years

This decline has no recent precedence. It was the largest decline in 5 1/2 years. The last decline this large was July 2000's 14.2% drop. (That decline may well have been a forewarning of the recession that was to follow.)

Though the market didn't seem tremendously affected, the price of gold increased significantly, which is usually an indicator of lack of faith in any other investment options. Below is a copy of today's gold prices. The rise started at 8:30 AM, at the same time the Durable Orders report came out. However, this is also when the New York Gold market opens, so the rise may have been related to that as well.



unlawflcombatnt

EconomicPopulistCommentary

Economic Patriot Forum

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[yourout]

19. The whole fake "Strong Economy" is based on borrowed.....

money that is NOT an unlimited supply. When the bottom drops out it will be
a very very tough fall.

[On the Road]

20. Here's the Transport Part:

"The weakness was led by a 27.1 percent plunge in orders for commercial aircraft."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7023668

Maybe related to higher fuel and ticket prices.

[PsycheCC]

24. kick. Good info.

:kick: