Zogby final numbers for today, February 3, 2004...

[flpoljunkie]

http://zogby.com/news/index.cfm

South Carolina Final: Edwards 36%-Kerry 32%; Missouri Final: Kerry 56%-Edwards 17%; Oklahoma Final: Clark 31%-Kerry 29%-Edwards 26%; Arizona Final: Kerry 42%-Clark 28%- Dean 15% New Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Poll Reveals

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Pollster John Zogby: "Edwards is ahead in South Carolina, but Kerry has shown he can run well in a southern state. The two candidates are in a dead heat in two regions, among Democrats, with men, and among union voters. Edwards pulls ahead with strength in the coastal area, among the youngest voters, college educated, and women. Kerry apparently wins among
African American voters. One potential fly in the ointment for Edwards: his margin here is due to solid cross-over appeal from Republicans and Independents. Will they really vote?

"Missouri is a victory for Kerry of enormous proportions and a further sign that he can run well in a diverse state.

"Oklahoma is very intriguing. If Clark holds on, and Edwards wins in South Carolina, then this race continues. But Kerry again has bragging rights for running strong in a state that is a little bit south, a little bit prairie, a little bit populist, and a little bit conservative. Edwards has really come on strong and if today's numbers hold, he is a strong regional candidate.

"A strong victory looms for Kerry in Arizona, with a very respectable showing for Clark. Could Clark translate this into western regional strength? And Dean has moved into delegate-counting position based on good numbers from young, suburban, and union voters.

[displacedtexan]

1. Any idea why Clark isn't polling better in SC?

I'm really surprised that Clark isn't polling as well in SC as he is in OK.
Has anyone offered an explanation or theory?

[isbister]

5. I read something

somewhere recently speculating that Clark's pulling rank on Kerry really hurt him with vets. Don't know how true that is.

[MoonRiver]

6. Odd that it's not hurting him in OK and AZ.

[aquanut]

13. Clarification:

"Clark's pulling rank on Kerry"

Should really be "The media's depiction of Clark pulling rank on Kerry".

Clark never pulled rank on Kerry in any real sense. This whole "story" is a media creation.

[BootinUp]

16. True, but Dole

got Clarks goat, and Clark will have to deal with that. On cable news these days stories can be made out of the slightest missteps.

[PAMod]

11. Clark is the anti-Dean, but is not the anti-anything else.

That doesn't explain his strong numbers in OK, but I think it is the main reason he has all but disappeared elsewhere.

[Lefta Dissenter]

23. Clark is the anti-bush (eom)

[Carolina]

17. total frigging blackout

by the media. John Edwards was on the front page of the STATE newspaper twice last week and local news coverage has been playing it up as a Kerry and Edwards horse race.

Clark spent more time here while the others were focused elsewhere but he's been treated like the invisible man. And sadly most people get their info from TV 'news' and that waste of ink and paper known as THE STATE.

[TheDonkey]

26. Not an excure JK & JE were blacked out in Iowa and stormed it. (nt)

[elb77]

30. two types

of candidates right now. establishment vs. non-establishment. all non-establishment candidates are competing for supporters so kerry soars. but i must say, i think this primary process is archaeic. we should be deciding on a nominee in the same fashion we choose a president. one primary, one day. this limits outside influence by the media, etc. iowa should not decide this whole process. my vote doesn't count anymore. and i, for one, find that very discouraging and disheartening.

[Phelan]

39. The campaign in SC wasn't run as well as it should have been

Clark could have had the state locked up, but for some reason or another which I do not feel like I am at liberty to elaborate the campaign in the state failed the candidate.

Clark should be polling much better, and I actually think from personal canvassing experience he will do much better than expected from the polls. Unless a lot of people I've talked to over the last two weeks are dirty liars.

[isbister]

2. If these numbers hold true

maybe there's two anti-Kerry's left in the race???

[molly]

3. Today is indeed an exciting day!

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. What About Howard Dean?

NT

[MAlibdem]

15. What about him

Stick a fork in him, He's DONE!

[Zech Marquis]

7. wow, I didn't know OK was a 3 way tie

31-29-26 for Oklahoma? :wow: I didn't know Edwards was doing so well THERE. Kerry is doing extremely well in Missouri--that's the big prize today IMHO, and his message is playing well down south. And hat's off to Clark for being in such good shape in Oklahoma too.

[jenk]

8. surveyusa had Edwards 2 points behind Clark in Oklahoma yesterday

he's surging there

[Zech Marquis]

27. that would be HUGE!

and next week I get to vote in the VA primary :bounce: Oh I can't wait!!!

[Rowdyboy]

9. Hopefully, we'll eventually see a two-person race

Either Kerry-Edwards or Kerry-Clark. Then it really gets interesting.

[shawmut]

10. looking down the road

the schedule breaks in Kerry's favor. If Edwards is going to be a strong regional candidate he has the misfortune of having many southern state primaries come right on the heels of large numbers of states outside the south voting on the same day (re: this Saturday and Super tuesday). assuming Edwards wins in SC today, his Waterloo will come on Feb 10th when VA and TN vote. If he can't sweep both states then I don't know how he could go on any longer. Today and the 10th are critical for him.

[JNelson6563]

14. Just around the corner....

Michigan, Washington and Maine. Saturday.

We'll know a lot more after that than we will after today.

Just my .0125

Julie

[annxburns]

12. My two cents ....

.... I really do think it is breaking down to this.

President: John Kerry
Vice-President: John Edwards
Sec of Defense: Wes Clark

Kerry and Edwards will have strong regional balance.
During the campaign, Edwards will emphasize economic fairness and pound W on domestic issues.
During the campaign, Clark will campaign for Kerry and Edwards and keep pounding W on his failures in Iraq.

Dems win the White House.

[Toronto Ron]

18. Make that Sec of State for Clark

Sec of Defense goes to a civilian (rumsfeld, cohen, etc.). I don't think Clark would be interested in that anyway. He would make the ideal Sec of State (assuming the media continues to succeed in wrecking his presidential bid).

[cindyw]

22. Is that a rule or a tradition?

I wanted to point out that Kerry enjoyed a virtual media blackout before Iowa. It benefited him actually. Clark will find he gets more attention if he wins at least one state. It would be beneficial to the party as a whole even if he is not the eventual nominee. His raised stature would almost guaruntee a cabinet position.

[Bucky]

34. I think it's the law. Al Haig shot down SecDef rumors in 1980 b/c of this

As I recall he was saying there was a statute limitation on former military officers serving as secretaries over the armed forces. It's a 20th century law, however, since I know US Grant was Secretary of War under Andrew Johnson for a while.

[Ishoutandscream]

33. With you, Ron, on this one

I'm a Clark supporter, but wouldn't mind seeing a scenario such as this. I think it's unbeatable (yes, I've been very upbeat lately).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. sounds about right

Kerry needs strong 2nds or close 3rds in SC and OK.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. Wow how things have changed.

Today, instead of being worried that Kerry might not win, Kerry supporters are worried that he might not win everywhere.

[dolstein]

21. Correction: Kerry has shown he can run well in the Southern PRIMARY

Zogby is an idiot. Kerry's second place standing in the South Carolina poll doesn't give us any indication as to whether Kerry can compete in the South. John Edwards is the ONLY candidate in the field who has actually won an ELECTION -- not a primary -- in the South.

[King of New Orleans]

24. Haw Edwards won an election outside NC?

Since, Edwards is the only one to have run in an election in the South he's the only one who could have won an election in the South. Has Edwards won an election in the North, or the Midwest, or the West where about 70% of the electoral votes are?

It should be noted that even if Edwards won the nomination S.C. would probably be very low on his list of target states.

[dolstein]

29. Southern nominees have done well outside the South

I don't think anyone doubts that Edwards would carry Massachusetts in the general election. But who honestly thinks Kerry would have a shot of carrying North Carolina?

[w4rma]

31. I think you missed your chance to argue that, dolstein.

It looks like Sen. Kerry has a chance at a sweep.

[Nederland]

36. I believe

That when Dolstein says Kerry doesn't have chance at winning NC he is referring to the general election, not the primary.

[Johnyawl]

25. And Edwards has only won ONE election

in the south. Funny he isn't running for reelection.

We needed someone like Bob Graham to do well. A southerner who's had a career of winning elections in the south.

[katieforeman]

28. Experience makes a politician less electable not more!

Candidates like Kerry and Graham with long careers in politics leave long voting records and many public statements for Republicans to use against them. Don't you think Kerry's history in the Senate of voting to cut defense and intelligence spending will hurt him in the general election? Don't you think his vote againat the first Iraq war and for the second makes him look like a politician who follows not leads public opinion?

Ask the voters in California if they voted for ARNOLD SCHWARZENNAGER because of his extensive experience or his ability to win elections in the past.

John Edwards is the one who will beat Bush because he connects with people and they trust him and like him. That's what Democrats need to win elections.

[spooky3]

32. Welcome to DU, katieforeman and King of New Orleans!

[King of New Orleans]

35. BTW--thanks for the welcomes

Arnold is in way over his head. This ain't the 90s when any former cast member of Predator gould be governor and watch the money flow into state coffers.

Quite frankly, I think experience will count alot in this election especially when you're going up against an incompetent child like GWB.

[John_H]

37. More shameless spin from Zogby

Will Kerry just hire him before he really makes an ass of himself.

[k_blagburn]

38. Zogby Not Reliable

Thats why many dont use them