ARIZONA DAILY STAR POLL

[k_blagburn]

ARIZONA DAILY STAR

Sen. John Kerry continued his rise in popularity among Arizonans planning to vote in today's primary but is locked in a statistical tie for first place with retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

The Massachusetts lawmaker now has the support of 34 percent of "certain" voters surveyed over the weekend in the latest Eyewitness News 4/Arizona Daily Star poll.

Clark has 28 percent and Howard Dean 18 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percent.

http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/dailystar/8313.php

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. If the MOE is 5, and Kerry leads by 6, how is it a statistical tie?

I don't get it.

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

2. If the MOE is 5,

then conceivably Kerry could be down by 5 and Clark up by 5.

[Closer]

3. ...

:freak:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. lol

uh huh.

[HFishbine]

7. That's correct

That is indeed the definition of margin of error. Any reported number may be + or - the margin of error.

[spooky3]

5. MOE means that Kerry's actual % could be 29 to 39 (34 plus or minus

5), and Clark's actual % could be 23 to 33 (28 plus or minus 5). So for example, Clark could be leading 32 to 30 over Kerry. But the odds are (if this poll was conducted well) that Kerry is ahead.

PS, k, you may want to take out the all caps in your post, per GE 2004 rules.

[beyurslf]

6. You double the MOE and anyone within that

range is "tied."

MOE 5 means you can up by 5 more or down by 5 more. So you have to be ahead by more than 10 not to be tied. BTW, a MOE of 5 is a terrible poll. They need a larger sample.

[robbedvoter]

9. Darn media! Again favoring Clark over Kerry! When will this stop?

[WI_DEM]

8. if Dean comes in a strong third with 20% of the vote

or so I would consider it a good showing since he has not spent any money on tv advertising in Arizona during the past week--unlike Kerry and Clark.