Strickland(D) has 17% lead over Blackwell(Ohio Governor Race)

[Tiggeroshii]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20April.htm

April 25, 2006--Our latest survey of the race for Ohio governor shows the likely Democratic nominee, Congressman Ted Strickland, maintaining hefty and growing leads over two potential Republican opponents.

Strickland leads Republican frontrunner Ken Blackwell, 52% to 35%. In March he led Secretary of State Blackwell 50% to 40%. Strickland now leads Republican Attorney General Jim Petro 51% to 31%. Last month his lead was 47% to 34%.

[Missy M]

1. That's great news for Ohio.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. YES!

[bluerum]

3. Run it through the "liebold" simulator and see what you get. nt

[Hippo_Tron]

9. Diebold can't steal this kind of margin

If Blackwell moves back into the 40% barrier, then we'll talk. Of course, there's a good chance that this will happen. I don't think that Strickland will lead by 17 points on election day.

[annabanana]

19. I guess we'll find out...

(how close were those "election reform" referendi?)

[bluerum]

20. You're probably right - I give the voting machines 5-7% off the top.

[NJ Democrats]

4. Good news!

Strickland will win this race. A Deibold fix would be way obvious.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. I hope it makes a difference that this is a governors race.

Strickland himself would probably contest it. If several different polls say he's winning by 20 points and loses by 4, it would be obvious something is wrong. But whether or not he would say anything is another story. IT didn't happen last November when a Diebold fix was obvious for the referendums, so I hope that it makes a difference that this is a governor's race. Of course, aren't recounts illegal in Ohio now? :eyes:

[thereismore]

6. YES! Steal that, Blackheart! nt

[jackster]

7. but but but

CSPAN this morning said Blackwell would be the probable winner......

[OzarkDem]

8. Excellent, probably even bigger lead

Rasmussen always leans at least 3 or 4 points in favor of GOP.

Ted is a great guy, will make a great governor. We're working hard for him.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. We don't lead a statewide race by 17 points in Ohio

Apply common sense. Not Diebold. The partisanship of the state.

We would be a small to moderate favorite in this race if actual odds were available now.

[OhioBlue]

11. Why wouldn't we lead by 17 points?

The Republicans have put up Petro and Blackwell - both embedded in the current corrupt administration for years. Look at Taft's approval rating - last I heard it was single digit.

There are more registered independents than Republicans or Democrats. Petro and Blackwell have both been involved in pay to play, corrupt schemes. Ohio has lost 200,000+ manufacturing jobs. The School system funding has been found unconstitutional by the Ohio Supreme Court, yet nothing has been done to address it and local school systems come to the voters for levy issues constantly which drives a wedge in many local communities.

Petro and Blackwell have been running negative attack ads against each other. Ohio is sick of the Republican rule and their lack of vision or progress.

Of course we can be 17 points ahead in a Statewide race in Ohio. The Republican Governor has a SINGLE DIGIT approval rating. The real questions would be why the hell wouldn't we be....

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I hope you're right

I'd bet every planetary penny otherwise, if an election were held today. We would probably win, but not close to 17 points.

Everything tends to drift back to the beginning so I don't overreact to short term polls or political winds. It's a polarized era and Ohio is a slightly red state.

[OhioBlue]

14. Sorry for my rant

you have a point - when the elections are held, I'm sure it will be closer. The negative attacks of Petro and Blackwell against each other are very likely helping our poll numbers.

I will still be shocked at my fellow Ohioans if Petro or Blackwell is polling within even 8 points of Strickland come November. With Taft in the single digits, the economy and school funding issues - I don't see how any independents would choose to vote for the Republican. Partisan Right wingers - maybe. They have some voice in their head telling them that the next Republican might be better than the last....

The noise machine will rear its ugly head and we shall see what happens - but there is no reason Strickland shouldn't win this one big.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. It wasn't a rant and I appreciate the info

I tend to look at statewide history too frequently instead of current events.

Any win will be awesome. Gov races are my priority and this one is huge. I still count it as a "road game" given the politics of the state. I know the state economy and GOP politicians have been atrocious lately, but I don't see a legit demographic trend moving Ohio blue, similar to Virginia and Colorado. We need to take advantage of the current political realities in the state, via the gov and senate races this year.

[librechik]

12. does Blackwell still get to count the votes, even though he's running?

after all, he got to count the votes when he was Chair of the Republican party in Ohio. The Pukkkes have never heard of conflict of interest, la la la.

[OhioBlue]

15. yes, he will still be the SOS

and in charge of the election process. His actions in '04 were despicable and an embarrassment for Ohio. I am volunteering for Jennifer Brunner for Ohio SOS. She pledges to restore honesty, integrity and fairness back to the election process. Blackwell can screw with the vote within a couple of percentage points, but I don't think he could pull off something that has a large margin.

[saltpoint]

16. Round of applause for those numbers from Ohio, and may the

trend continue toward the deepest possible blue in November.

I would love to see (somehow) Blackwell fail to carry Hamilton County. I know that's a longshot, but what a fine thing it would be to see him lose Hamilton County and have Jean Schmidt so far behind there that she loses her entie district.

It's time for Ohio to send some Democrats into these offices. It's been awfully lonesome without Howard Metzenbaum all these years.

[proud patriot]

17. Good

Keep up the great work Ohio

[saltpoint]

21. Tiggeroshii, I would love to know wha the tilt in this poll is for

various counties.

If there's no link, it's ok. If you know of one, I'd love to see it.

If Strickland and Brown are running strong in the SW of Ohio, it would be just great.

[mwb970]

22. Blackwell is hobbled by his TEL initiative.

He is totally committed to a wacko plan to limit state spending that is opposed by dozens and dozens of school and community groups across the state. It's similar to the measure that failed so spectacularly in Colorado.

Blackwell is the darling of the church people and is a right-wing extremist. So I guess the idea is that Ohioans, battered and sickened by 16 years of all-Republican rule and very sick of our worthless president, will respond by electing as governor a fanatical right-wing religious nut who helped Bush steal the 2004 election here in Ohio.

Right.

[otohara]

23. Thank Gawd

Blackwell is a horrible person.

[BobcatJH]

24. The Blackwell/Petro ads

For those of you out there who aren't living in Ohio, you wouldn't believe how dirty the GOP primary is becoming. I've seen negative ads before. But Blackwell and Petro's ads go so far beyond that, they truly have to be seen to be believed. Each is trying to out-Bible the other, while both are painting the other as corrupt, business-as-usual Republicans. Calling each other hypocrites. Calling each other soft on moral issues. Christ, it's great stuff.

[Vidar]

25. ' hope it's enough.