Gadave
(269 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 02:30 PM
Original message |
My predictions for tonight |
|
I think Edwards will win the expectation games tonight. Kerry will "win" 5 states (with most voters going with someone else), but Edwards will pick up the Joementum and this race will again get interesting.
My surprise of the night, Edwards wins OK, Kerry 3rd.
Dean will onlt break double digits in 2 states max (and sadly he is who I am backing).
Looks like it will be a horse race between Edwards and Kerry, and Dean and Clark can actually benefit by this because as long as one candidate does not break away, there is still a chance of getting enough delegates to stop the front runner.
In any event a good 2 person race will be good for the party.
|
davidinalameda
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 02:41 PM
Response to Original message |
|
I don't see any doubt of that
|
Gadave
(269 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
8. It was pretty close, I almost got that right. |
woofless
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 02:50 PM
Response to Original message |
2. I don't understand. Please explain |
|
how Kerry will "win" 5 states (with most voters going to someone else). If he gets more votes than A or B he beats A or B. If he gets fewer votes, he doesn't. Wassup?
|
creativelcro
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 02:52 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
4. Simple: say you win with 30%. Still 70% did no vote for you. |
beyurslf
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. The same way more people voted against Clinton |
|
than ever voted for him. The same is true for Bush. You can win with less than 50% espcially in a race with so many people.
|
Gadave
(269 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
|
If you don't get close to a majority and blow out your next opponent you did not win, you placed.
For example A - 50 percent B - 25 percent C - 15 Percent Others 10 Percent
(This is pretty much a single winner)
A - 35 Percent B - 25 Percent C - 20 Percent Others - 20 Percent
(This is not a single persons victory, when though the margin is 10 points.)
In the first case there is great reason for the candidate to claim victory. In the second case, the support to to widespread and the press should not act like A destroyed the field.
|
in_cog_ni_to
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 02:51 PM
Response to Original message |
|
He has an excellent chance of taking NM and AZ if we look at the absentee ballots that were cast BEFORE the media started spinning Kerry and Edwards as the party "darlings."
Go Wes!
|
eyesroll
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 02:56 PM
Response to Original message |
|
Kerry -- Will get 15% in every state; will win five Dean -- Will get 15% in two states; no wins Edwards -- Will get 15% in four states; will win South Carolina and come in darn close in Oklahoma (Second or third, with Kerry closely in the other position) Clark -- Will get 15% in five states; will win Oklahoma by a tiny margin (see above) Lieberman -- Will get 15% in Delaware; no wins Kucinich -- No wins, nothing above 15% Sharpton -- No wins, nothing above 15%
15% was the delegate threshold in IA and NH -- not sure if it's the same in all seven tonight, but I'm using that for my predictions. (BTW -- 15% here means "at least 15%.")
In addition, I predict Lieberman will be out of the race by tomorrow. Everyone else will stick around for another week or two, at least. Kucinich and Sharpton are on their own timetables, and thus I don't make predictions about when they will leave. (I do think Sharpton will leave before Kucinich, but that's about it.)
|
Gadave
(269 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Tue Feb-03-04 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #5 |
7. I think your are better than mine |
|
If Edwards took OK, then it I would claim victory. In any event, still a good night for Edwards, but if he would have won OK, the expectations game would have been overwelmingly his.
Edwards looks like ready to step in if Kerry misteps, and its good to have a viable backup if Ketty misteps.
|
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Fri Apr 26th 2024, 03:44 AM
Response to Original message |