Hollings says GDP "Enron-faked," we're in recession!!!

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

So, the plot thickens. Former Sen. Ernest Hollings from South Carolina recently published a fascinating article, noting how all those supposedly wonderful economic numbers Bush likes to put out (on GDP, inflation and unemployment) are all faked as the result of Enron-worthy number-fudging and false accounting.

http://www.charleston.net/stories/?newsID=84520§ion=commentary

It's a fascinating article that reveals A LOT. For one thing, our GDP numbers are fudged like you wouldn't believe. The reason? Our GDP is calculated using consumption (consumer spending) as 70% of the total. This number has been used since the 1946 since for most of the period after WWII, our consumption was roughly matched by production in the US, and so the consumption numbers were a form of numerical shorthand. But, as you all know, our trade deficit has ballooned, our manufacturing has collapsed, our high-end programming jobs are being outsourced, and our real estate market is falling, with consumer debt at an all-time high. IOW, we're consuming but not producing. The upshot? The GDP numbers are total, absolute BS-- if you look at actual production numbers here, they're orders of magnitude smaller than consumption so our actual economic activity is much lower, and in fact we're already in recession with the economy contracting 1.7% last year.

Our annual deficit is actually $720 billion-- it appears lower only because the Bush Administration has (against the law, even!) actually used Social Security obligations to reduce the apparent deficit numbers elsewhere in the government. This would be like taking your debt obligations in one sector and using them to deduct from your overall debts elsewhere-- not even Enron tried something like this! The CPI is actually closer to 8%, i.e. inflation is a lot higher than we thought.

Folks, this is important. To be fair, Bill Clinton pulled some of this crap too, but not to the same extent as Bush. George W. is actually breaking the law with the deficit underestimates, and the true GDP numbers actually put us in recession. We Democrats need to be pointing out this fact, since it indeed resonates with people's personal concerns about the economy.

This is why my economist friend was recently telling me and my other pals to learn French or German or something and move out to Europe. They're much more honest about the economic figures in Europe, so the people and government have a true gauge of where they are and what to do about it. Here in the US, we have Enron-style accountants crunching our numbers and a false prosperity, and we all know where this leads.

[kenny blankenship]

1. Basically, we're BORROWING our GDP?

[norml]

2. Cooking the books is not recommended,

though this thread is.

[autorank]

3. In my state, it's illegal to run a deficit. The last Repup. Gov. did just

that. It saddened me to see Mark Warner, D, take over as governor with $3.0 billion worth of
debt that no one thought could be there...because nobody had ever lied like this. That Repub.
Governor, his name escapes me, became the first security czar for the USA.

I always wondered ... what if Warner had a Democratic Attorney General? Would he have prosecuted
the outgoing governor.

I think that right after we impeach every single judge this illegitimate pResident appointed, there
should be an investigation and then trials, if justified, aiming at putting the perps in jail.

[MADem]

17. That cretin Gilmore... n/t

[autorank]

41. Oh, no, you said his name...:;)

That's our Cretin!

[lady lib]

4. Paul Krugman just wrote a piece called

"CSI: Trade Deficit" 4/24/06 where he says, "there's something wrong with the numbers."

Here's the puzzle: the trade deficit means that America is living beyond its means, spending far more than it earns. (In 2005, the United States exported only 53 cents' worth of goods for every dollar it spent on imports.) To pay for the excess of imports over exports, the United States has to sell stocks, bonds and businesses to foreigners. In fact, we've borrowed more than $3 trillion just since 1999.

-snip-

How is this possible? The answer, almost certainly, is that there's something wrong with the numbers. (Laypeople tend to treat official statistics as gospel; professional economists know that putting these numbers together involves a lot of educated guesswork -- and sometimes the guesses are wrong.) But depending on exactly what's wrong, the U.S. economy either has hidden strengths, or it's in even worse shape than it seems.

In a new paper, Mr. Gros argues -- compellingly, in my view -- that what's really happening is that foreign companies are understating the profits of their U.S. subsidiaries, probably to avoid taxes, and that official data are, in particular, failing to pick up foreign profits that are reinvested in U.S. operations.

If Mr. Gros is right, the true position of the U.S. economy isn't as bad as you think -- it's worse. The true trade deficit, including unreported profits that accrue to foreign companies, isn't $800 billion -- it's more than $900 billion. And America's foreign debt, including the value of foreign-owned businesses, is at least $1 trillion bigger than the official numbers say.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

12. Wow, that's a good piece too!

This IMHO may be one of the most important "sleeper issues" of 2006, i.e. the rampant and fundamental misrepresentation of economic data, and the search for the true numbers. This sort of number-fudging on such an important issue only digs the hole even deeper.

[indepat]

36. Do Repukes have to lie about absolutely everything to sanitize

the insanity of their every initiative?

[DemReadingDU]

26. This was an excellent Krugman article!

I wish there was a link to it for everyone to read it.

As an aside - I've always thought that with so many large companies, like Enron, that cooked their books, why wouldn't our own federal government be cooking its own books too. I don't doubt that our economy will implode one of these days.

edit to add link to Krugman article
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/04/paul_krugman_cs.html

[lvx35]

5. You have GOT to be shitting me!

Our GDP is being calculated by consumer spending in the age of the "global economy"? That's OBVIOUSLY not tied to the definition of GDP! (all goods and services PRODUCED in a country.)

So WTF??? And also, can somebody PLEASE tell me what's going on in China? are they doing this too, or are they ALREADY the worlds largest GDP when ours has been adjusted to reflect reality?

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

7. Good question! Apparently, China has more honest GDP numbers that lowball

China's own GDP numbers use a very different formula that focuses on the production side and obtains the figures directly *from the numbers that are provided from surveys of manufacturers and employers*. China has recently been shifting away from buying US T-bills and moving to encourage domestic development and consumption, but the actual number-crunching for the GDP derives from direct assessments of production numbers from goods producers and from the transaction receipts recorded for service industries. (IOW, insofar as internal consumption fuels production, the production numbers are measured directly, not inferred from misleading consumption statistics.) Knowledge industries (e.g. software), technological development, R&D investment, innovation and improved communications also factor in, but the upshot is that these are all direct measurements on the production side of things. In China, consumption is never used as a proxy for production, and China's GDP numbers may actually be underestimating that nation's true economic strength!

In fact, because China's domestic market has increased so much, the goods they're producing are increasingly fueling further production increases in their own country. Moreover, China is no longer merely dominating the manufacturing field alone, but also high-level software and knowledge industries and general high-tech innovation.

Perhaps the most bizarre irony here, is that even the EU, which the Republicans love to deride as effete and inefficient, is producing at a healthier clip than the US, since the Europeans produce so many high-end, high-quality goods. In fact, it's in large part China's increased domestic consumption that's been pushing up growth and productivity in the EU countries.

[lvx35]

8. Wow. wow. wow.

If your right, that's huge news...regular estimates put China as surpassing us in the next like 15 years, but our GDP is being misreported and China's is not, that interesection point is now, or very soon. That is shocking in the context of everything else, because a picture is starting to emerge here of an America in very, very deep shit. I will be watching the economy carefully.

[Old and In the Way]

6. Bush was marketed to the American people as a businessman...

See, he got this MBA degree. Yeah, they are running our government like a Republican business. And while they are skimming all the profits, they are hiding all the bad news from the stockholders. So they need Diebold to keep them in power, but eventually, it will all come out. Boy, are the stockholders gonna be pissed when they get the real story.

[liberalla]

18. But he was a LOUSY businessman! And crooked too...

I don't know why they were able to sell that to America.
Everything he'd been in charge of failed, and he needed daddy help,
or bin laden family money, etc. to save him.

How many times was he found to have committed insider trading? three or four ???
http://www.truthout.org/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/7/3818


Link for: The Failed Corporate Record of George W. Bush
http://alaric3rh.home.sprynet.com/science/bceo.html

sheesh!

[AuntiBush]

34. Doesn't it Drive One Batty how Anyone Could Have Voted

for them!?1 Americans just don't pay enough attention to history. That's why history is so dog-gone important.

[goclark]

37. Auntie, America DIDN't vote for them

They cooked the votes in a DIEBOLD pan and we let them do it.

We are ready to let them do it again.

And now we find out that they may have cooked the books on the $$'s.

That doesn't surprise me at all! :mad:

[blm]

39. He was also making deals with BCCI and TERRORISTS as a private citizen.

.

[Joe Chi Minh]

44. They were'n't able to sell it to America, were they. I don't know

why posters here keep implying or outright stating that Bush won the last two presidential elections.

[liberalla]

51. I agree. That's maddening.

Just to clarify, I was not implying or stating that bush won the last two elections (or I certainly didn't mean to!).

I personally believe both elections (2000 & 2004) were rigged. I'm not new to this belief. I was worried about a repeat of 2000 long before the 2004 theft occurred. (I also believe 911 was an inside job.)

When I say they were able to sell it to America, I'm not suggesting that the strategy "won" the election for them. What I meant is, how could they think that presenting bush as a "good businessman" was the way to go? How could they say that with a straight face? If I was trying to package him for sale, I don't think that would've been in the formula at all. It's too easy to disprove. Anyone looking into his background would find he's incompetent in the business world also. Except for family connections and power, W would have been in bankruptcy court a few times.

[Joe Chi Minh]

55. All I'm saying is that we have to be more careful about even

SEEMING to accept any of the wholly imaginary frameworks of reference with which the right wing have long used the full panoply of the media, including putative "polls", to mislead the less politically-oriented members of the public. There are plenty on here who are in bad faith, paid operatives. Let's not help them by inadvertently seeming to acquiesce with their deliberately mendacious premises.

Otherwise, instead of seeing through the false premises, all too many people will immediately go on the defensive, as if the Republican fantasy for public consumption were the reality! And we will have inadvertently given aid and succour to those low-life propagandists.

[cpamomfromtexas]

80. Most MBA degrees are not quantitative in nature.

They are not hard numbers degrees. There is a lot of difference in MBA curriculums. Some aren't worth the paper they are written on! A lot of MBA's are KUM BA YAH YAHOO degrees

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

9. More corroboration and some very scary numbers!

Oy. Take a look:

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/opinion/14434445.htm

Gene Meyer (who's an old-fashioned Midwestern straight-shooter on economic matters) breaks it down here. He not only confirms that $700 billion+ number for the annual deficits, but notes that our true national debt is $46 trillion which, to provide a sense of scale, translates into $375,000 for every US citizen, or over $1,000,000 for a family of three!

Folks, I'll be honest, I do not want to be on US soil when this debt is called in (which it will be in about 15 years, tops, based on the maturation schedule of our debt instruments). Moreover, the whole English-speaking world (including the UK and Anglophone Canada) is posting similar debt profiles though not quite on the same scale as here, so it looks as though it's either Continental Europe or East Asia as far as moving to a modern-ish place that's not about to collapse in a river of debt.

My buddy told me that Pimsleur, Berlitz, Living Language and the Tell Me More series have the best language course set-ups for French, German, Italian, Spanish and other major European tongues. There's also Rosetta Stone and Instant Immersion I guess, plus personalized courses. I dunno, but I'm thinking about improving my French awfully fast. These numbers here for the US pull the curtain away to reveal the "wizard," and they're not pretty to say the very least.

[Canuckistanian]

11. uh... Canada, too?

We have a saying in Canada that living next to the US is like sleeping with an elephant - you may be fine for the moment, but you better pay attention to every twitch and grunt, lest the beast rolls over on you.

Are we all so closely tied to the American machine that if it goes down hard, we'll be dragged down with it?

As for the language thing, I'm thinking more along the lines of Mandarin Chinese.....

:scared:

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

13. Yeah, an accident of geography :(

I've overall gotten the sense that Canadians are much more fiscally responsible than the US (consumers and the government), but the problem is that the US has essentially appended almost entire sectors of the Canadian economy to our own (especially raw materials-sorts of things). A Canadian pal of mine said the household debt levels for Canada recently topped $1 trillion which, while still a small fraction of our mess in the US, are beginning to nip at the heels of your own.

I like you all up north and hope that you don't have to get ensnared in our own web of bungling down here, so maybe it's a good idea to, uh, "diversify the portfolio" a bit more with more business transacted with the EU, Japan, China and other countries. The Canadian economy really is nastily exposed if ours goes under, so a little more independence could be lifesaving. Easier said than done, I know, but hopefully you all have enough people up there ticked off about the way Harper is cozying up to Bush, to effect some kind of change. Good luck whatever you manage!

[Canuckistanian]

14. Thanks

I've long suspected what you've just said but hoped against hope that we could recognize and avert the coming meltdown.

The current government here is temporary and unfortunately, they could do some actual damage here before we force another election.

But thanks for the kind words. You're obviously knowledgeable on the subject.

I hope we can work together (as countries) for a more honest and transparent relationship.

[TrogL]

42. Canada has been diversifying its economy

That's why Chretien and later Martin were constantly on "trade delegations" - usually to China.

[area51]

46. employment

I sure hope other countries have employment opportunities in addition to having universal healthcare. I'd love to go to another country so I could go back to work.

[kineneb]

70. languages

Gee, you mean my degree minor in German just might be useful in the real world?

The high schools don't even offer German anymore, which is a shame, since much historical research material is only available in German.

After the Euro was adopted, we were in Europe. I said then that the economic future was not with the dollar, but with the Euro. Damn, I wish we had been able to invest in Euros then, when the rate was right around 1:1.

[On the Road]

73. That $46 Trillion Includes Future Payments

to Social Security and Medicare. He does NOT include future taxes to offset those obligations. It's similar to some of the arguments for Social Security privatization.

I would guess the reason he's portraying it this way is precisely to make people comfortable with the idea of "slash(ing) Social Security and Medicare spending beyond the bone," which is part of his BEST-case scenario.

Normally, government debt refers to actual borrowing, generally by Treasury bill. It does not refer to the difference between imports and exports. It does not refer to promised social benefits, much or most of which will be covered.

The federal government owes $8.3 Trillion. That is too much, and Bush has been completely irresponsible. But it is manaageable by doing what Clinton did. It is not likely to cause an economic collapse.

Rather than being a straight-shooter, Mr Meyer is being a bit of a scare-monger. I tend to be a perma-bear, too, so I know from experience (eg, losing money shorting the market) you have to make sure to balance this kind of thinking with positive news such as technical advances, third-world development, and productivity increases.

Old-style fiscal conservatives are usually uncomfortable with growth and borrowing, and often issue dire warnings all throughout periods of enormous growth such as the last 25 years. Hollings, who I respect, is old-school and may have some sympathy with this position.

[caligirl]

10. great post, I've been trying to tell my hubby about this stuff.

[tuvor]

15. K/R

[skids]

16. Lots more stuff like this...

...can be found here at "ShadowStats":

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

38. Wow, what a fantastic link!

In fact, I think the data here are at least partially assembled by one of the people that Hollings cites. Definitely a bookmark here, and will constantly be referring back to it for technical discussions.

[liberalla]

19. Really good thread. Lots of good links on the economy.

I've become obsessed with the failing economy and the way they are attempting to conceal it.
I flat out do not trust anything they say.

I think we're in for a rude awakening, and a dramatic change in our day to day lives.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

*edited to add link to another great thread on the economy!

The Inevitable Collapse of the Greenback by Mike Whitney

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x207820

[w8liftinglady]

22. thanks for that article..makes me shudder....

[The Backlash Cometh]

20. I suspected so.

Damn. Anybody know of any good jobs someone can have working off their computer at home?

[Festivito]

21. Deficit adding .72T$ toward GDP, M3 adding ?, Oil in Euros. TROUBLE!

CONs accused Clinton of a recession. Why? Because the GDP went down .1T$ in a quarter year (when rounded by them) in the second to last quarter, then went down more during Bush's first quarter. (Clinton had 20 days of that three months.)

Ignoring that the GDP went UP the Clinton-quarter before by 1.5T$ and .5T$ after that measly negative .1T$. Up over 2T$ for the year. And that .1 was Clinton's so-called recession.

.1T$

Compare to Bush borrowing .7T$ annually. That's .18T$ per quarter.

SORRY. Had to vent.

The M3 is no longer reported. Which means the Fed can print dollars making the economy look good for a month or two until the manufacturers overseas start realizing that no one over here needs any, because we are flooded with dollars also. Maybe China, Japan and the Middle East will be kind, and hold those dollars, THEN DUMP THEM ALL AT ONCE SENDING THE DOLLAR DOWN SO FAST WE'LL BE BUYING $150 LOAVES OF BREAD.

Add oil countries starting to trade in Euros, MORE DOLLARS DUMPED. All at once. Catastrophe.

$150 for a loaf of bread. Retirees with no cost of living increases. Interest rates soar. The debt will seem smaller until the interest rates jack up the debt since we cannot pay it. Medicare needs tax dollars. People have borrowed on their health also, not money, they borrowed their health, eating badly. Medicare breaks us, SS goes with it. Toothless democracy.

The MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX wins. No SS. No democracy. Just a country of poor people able to man huge military machine.

[Kolesar]

29. Why isn't this "M3 story" on the front pages of the financial news?

The only place I have read it is at DU (twice, btw).
(Yes, I know, you don't edit the financial news. The question is rhetorical)

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

43. Good question, I'd like to know just exactly *why* the M3

is now going unreported. Generally, fishy things like this have at least a so-called "official" explanation, but on this, there's only silence, which naturally feeds suspicions. What, exactly, does the Fed gain from not reporting the M3 data? It's a very useful and obviously quite relevant piece of information, so what's the incentive to stop reporting it? Since there doesn't seem to be even a half-baked, mildly plausible explanation for it, we naturally will tend to assume that somebody's trying to hide something. That suspicion may well be correct.

[nick303]

63. The given reason is that it was not so useful

M3 had become increasingly subjective and prone to inaccuracy. The reasoning was that trying to track it was a waste of time. I'm not saying that this is necessarily true, but that is the official reason given.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

81. Hmm, that official explanation is curious

I always thought the M3 was one of the most useful measures since it was perhaps the most direct indicator of our money supply and therefore, in technical economic terms, the most germane data point to link goods with the amount of printed currency chasing said goods. I don't buy the Bush Admin's argument that it's "prone to inaccuracy," either, that's the case for most economic measures-- and as we've seen, even basic numbers like GDP and unemployment figures are fudged like mad, so much for accuracy! But since the M3 is more tightly linked to the sheer quantity of paper printed in the Mint, seems to me this would be one of the more reliable measures.

[Hoping4Change]

47. What does M3 stand for?

[redqueen]

53. It's an economic indicator... like unemployment or GDP...

it shows changes in manufacturing ... shipments, inventories, orders, etc.

[Hoping4Change]

76. Thanks so much.

:hi:

[liberalla]

57. The M3 was primarily a measure of the amount of money (USD)

currently in circulation. Which means that now they can print a bunch of new paper and put it in circulation without it being openly reported and easily seen. There's more to it than that, but that was the main purpose of the M3.

On March 23, unnoticed by many, the US Federal Reserve quietly stopped publishing the quantum of broad money (referred to as M3) in the US economy. Simply put, this meant the central bank will not reveal the amount of currency it pumps into the system each year. So, it will now be impossible to distinguish dollar inflows to US economy and new currency that the Fed would print.

So, the Fed, fear analysts, could covertly fund its near $800 billion budget deficit and $700 billion balance of payment deficit, which are more than India's GDP.

These fears have prompted the dollar to plummet to multi-month lows against euro and yen and could seriously impact confidence in the world's favourite currency. A European think-tank has likened the cessation of M3 publication to Richard Nixons unilateral decision to suspend the convertibility of the dollar into gold in 1971.

"In 1971, the dollar became a currency solely based on the rest of the world's confidence. But this confidence mostly relied on the general feeling that US economy and its currency were managed transparently. With the end of M3 publication, this transparency disappears completely. The US now wants the world to trust their word, even in the field of their currency's value. In a world where the confidence in US has never been so low since 1945, the dollar is thus turned into the central player of the beginning global systemic crisis," according to E2020 - European Political Anticipation.

"A falling dollar is the greatest threat to the world economy,"says Pradip Shah, who heads private equity firm IndAsia.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1506648.cms

[Hoping4Change]

77. Thanks for the information. Very illuminating.

DUers rock.

:hi:

[anoraksia53]

58. M3 stands for the number of dollars that

are out there in circulation......Since it's not being reported, no one knows how much new money is being printed. That means it's hard to know how much inflation we're creating by printing money.

Leading up to the next election the governMint wants to be able to print lots of money. In the short term this feels good, cause we can all keep getting loans as there is lots of money circulating. But this is just a short-term feel-good. Inevitably there'll be more US$ circulating, and the foreigners who buy our money (the ones who are buying up our bonds, that is, our debt--the ones we owe money to) won't want to buy any more of our debts cause they'll know we'll never be able to pay it back.

At that point, the shit hits the fan.....the value of the dollar drops.....that means EVERYTHING we import will costs LOTS more. That means food, gas, or anything else that we have manufactured in other countries or where the raw materials came from other countries.

So........by not telling anyone the M3 anymore it keeps the money-printing game a secret. No one knows how many new $$$ we're printing, or how fast. It will hide just how catastrophic the financial situation is......just like how they're already lying about the other numbers.

The governMint wants to keep this going until the next election. They hope voters will be duped and feel good enough financially that they'll vote Republican. ("It's the economy, stupid.")

[earth mom]

62. Thanks for the clear and concise post.

:applause: Welcome to DU!

My husband doesn't have time to read the threads on DU, and sometimes I am way too long-winded when I try and explain what's going on, so your post will be a great shortcut for him (and me too!). O8)

[Hoping4Change]

78. Another wonderful, informed person has joined DU.

Welcome. Thank you for your insight. Glad your here.

:hi:

[nick303]

64. M3 is the broadest definition of the money supply

It doesn't really stand for anything.

I've posted the basic definitions of M1, M2, and M3 below, courtesy of investopedia.

M1 = all physical money like coins and currency. It also includes demand deposits, which are checking accounts.

M2 = M1 + short-length time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds

M3 = M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements (aka repo's), along with other larger liquid assets

[anoraksia53]

71. It's the US money stock

and "US" is the important part. It's the US Federal Reserve Board who decided to stop publishing the M3 info.

http://66.249.93.104/search?q=cache:nouBuNT0Y5YJ:www.advfn.com/money-words_term_2910_M3.html+m3+definition&hl=en&gl=uk&ct=clnk&cd=2&client=firefox-a

[Hoping4Change]

79. Where is there a more amazing group of people than here at DU?

Thanks for this info. Thanks for responding to my plea for clarity! BTW Welcome to DU. Glad your here.

:hi:

[saltpoint]

23. I'm hunching that Hollings is right, and off to the side of just agreeing

with him, it is absolutely wonderful to have his voice back in the public arena.

What an effective human being Fritz Hollings is, and how desperately we need him in the Senate.

His seat fell to lesser lights, that's for sure.

[HereSince1628]

24. Bush break the law? Unlikely. He's got an executive order

that makes him exempt from such things. It's one of those amazing things that a divinely appointed leader is granted...when the president does it, it can't be illegal.

[ShortnFiery]

28. "When the President does it, that means that it it is not illegal"

Right. Unfortunately * and the rest of his Criminal Administration have no capacity to do the honorable thing and resign. I know it's been said numerous times but I never thought that I would presently prefer to have Nixon back, with or without impeachment proceedings pending. :wow: :blush:

[PATRICK]

25. The trouble is

the door is open to fudging everywhere. It is part of boosting the system and even a necessary tool. Bald reality would depress the market. What Bush has done as with all other imperfect realities is commit crimes to the breaking point and beyond through this open door.

To point out certain basic things is to threaten everyone and the system itself. It is a wonder no one pulls the plug on this guy before the entire jig is up. You will get collapse before you get an honest system and getting back to the pragmatic wink and nod days seems an increasingly sour chance.

But the total lie is the first and only defense so when that wall breaks there might be no responsible accountability left to fix anything.

[erpowers]

27. Deficit Number Right I Think

I think the deficit number might be right or it might be even more. I have heard that the deficit is low in that Bush has not added the cost of the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan to the budget. So if it is true that the current wars are not in the budget and Bush is using Social Security to lower the deficit than most likely we have a budget deficit of about $1 trillion or close to that about $900 billion. The cost of the wars is about $200-$300 billion. Does anyone know if the cost of the wars is being put in the budget? The next president is going to have a hard time dealing with the problems left to him/her by Bush. To some degree I agree with those who say they would not want to be president after Bush left office. I think it is going to take a person who really likes politics, cares about the government and the people to deal with this problem. Boy did this country ever get screwed by Bush.

[Onlooker]

30. This is worth forwarding

Excellent article, easy to understand, by a legitimate moderate.

[nickinSTL]

31. This is no great shock to me...but I'm glad someone's saying it

I've been pretty sure we're in a recession for some time.

I don't think the economy has been anywhere near strong since at least mid-2001 (pre 9/11).

I get sick of hearing all the 'economists' on the MSM claiming how the economy is 'healthy' and 'growing' and how unemployment is 'down'. I don't buy it.

[progressoid]

32. OK, now I'm depressed.

[AuntiBush]

33. Anyone Know how to Legitimately Invest

outside the country? Our dollar is seriously plummeting, according to most reports out here anyway.

Amazing how in less then 6 years 1 *&Co have destroyed our nation!

[IndyOp]

35. Legitimately invest? As in with social conscience funds or just anything

in Euros, Yen, Yuan? I got in contact with a local financial advisor by looking here:

Progressive Assets Management
http://www.progressive-asset.com/

I moved my retirement funds with TIAA-CREF out of the US Market and into International Funds in January and my return (which had been 2-3% since 2000) is now up to 12% last quarter and it may go as high as 15% this quarter. Everytime their markets do well, everytime the dollar drops in comparison to the Euro, Yen, Yuan -- these funds jump up.

:eyes:

[wicket]

40. We're so screwed

:scared:

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

45. More tidbits on the unemployment calculation fraud

I was recently speaking with a friend of mine who's emigrated to Europe with his wife and daughter, and he says the entire unemployment calculation system within the US is utterly, laughably bogus. Nobody else in the world artificially inflates their unemployment numbers like the Bureau of Labor Statistics here. Basically, anyone who's been looking for a job for greater than 6 months, who's lost unemployment benefits (i.e., the most desperate and frustrated job-seekers) is dropped from the list. Anyone working odd jobs or basically pulling down less than minimum wage is dropped. Anyone going from temp to temp position is considered.

In Europe, they consider *all these people* to effectively be unemployed, and so the European employment figures are far more forthright about the true state of hiring and job creation, far more honest and accurate and, as a result, useful for policymakers. In the US by contrast, the numbers are routinely fudged lower. Bill Clinton, again, took part in some of this dissembling, but nowhere near the extent as Bush (not much a need to at that point). In fact, the true unemployment rate in the US right now is more than 8 and perhaps 9% when more accurate calculations (akin to those used in Europe) are utilized! No wonder the official numbers have long seemed phony and cooked.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

48. On the topic of picking up a language for expats in Europe

As I said, this is by no means the first time I've heard from a smart, straight-shooting friend of mine about the wisdom of at least preparing for a move to Europe, which has a similar technological industralized economy without all the imperialistic war, number-fudging and other BS perpetrated here. (East Asian countries also offer options but don't have as much on-the-ground advice for expats there.) Despite their current doldrums, the European economies and societies in general have much sturdier footing and a more solid foundation than here. The UK is one option though thanks to Blair's meddling, the UK is being enmeshed in many of the same quagmir-ish traps as Bush's USA, so my friend recommends Continental Europe. Always keep in mind-- you're not leaving the fight, since you can still vote in US elections after you relocate across the Atlantic.

Obviously if you're thinking about taking the expat route and want to find a decent job overseas in e.g. Continental Europe, language fluency is a big plus. For anyone who's interested, my friend in Europe says that he's found the Instant Immersion and Tell Me More! series to be spectacular for learning languages like German, French, Spanish and Italian, though a bit on the pricey side. However, short of enrolling in a course in a language school or continuing ed program, or finding a tutor, these two can get you conversational surprisingly fast. He says is it's actually pretty easy once you have this basis, since all the above languages use the Roman alphabet and share so much vocabulary-- just being in the country for a few months after that brings you up to speed.

The Complete Learning Series and "Now!" series are also strong, while "TeachMe!" is lower cost and less comprehensive but a decent bargain for the money. He says that you probably want a complete learning suite, with both written materials and a good language dictionary plus an audio component (software, tape or CD) to develop listening comprehension. For supplementary help and basic practice building up vocabulary and conversational skills, old-fashioned flashcards either on paper or software form (e.g. Declan's, the "Unforgettable language" and "Before You Know It" series) are ideal, and the "Lingua Match" series has a variation on the same.

My friend really suggested starting now, since it can take a couple years to get everything together, sample the countries and then at least be ready to make the move. The days are long gone when we could consider the US to be the world's safe haven anymore, especially considering our current mess. Sad to say, even if we get one of our own into the Oval Office after 2008, the problems from the past 8 years will prove to be almost intractable. It's a good idea to spread your eggs to a few different baskets.

[0007]

49. Not another dime to the phony war in Iraq. Now is time to

call junior and his crime cabal out in the open for straight answers. Our congressmen & senators must know that we the people are being ripped off. They are equally to blame.

The time has come.

[blm]

50. This article should be sent to EVERY media outlet - local and national.

.

[CPMaz]

52. Why? They ignore it, or bury it,

like they did with Stephen Colbert's satire of the president and his lapdogs in the Washington press corps.

[blm]

54. And Kerry's attack on Swiftliars at Firefighters Convention speech

on Aug19, 2004 - the media didn't show up some how - it was only seen on Cspan - so it never happened.

I know about media complicity, but we can never stop trying. You never know when one person decides that the truth must be heard.

[cassiepriam]

56. Duh, cooking the books is standard. What else is new?

I have not believed any financial numbers from this crew from the get-go.

[anoraksia53]

59. What's scary is

how good they're getting at it. They must have been taking lessons from Enron.

[cassiepriam]

72. They taught Enron! Oil Mafia has been doing this for decades....nt

[anoraksia53]

75. of course

your right!

[Jack Rabbit]

60. (Throws up hands and looks disgusted)

Why am I not surprised? I must confess, this is one I hadn't thought about. I would have thought Krugman would have been the one to tell us about this.

Would His Imperial Incompentency and his aides lie to us? Unfortunately, we know the answer to that question. A regime that would lie about a war will lie about anything.

My next question is: Does Senator Hollings know what he's talking about? Well, yes, he knows what a deficit is and he knows what fudging figures is. He also documents in this piece how it is being done and cites page numbers if anybody wants to check it out. So, if he's wrong, he's wrong honestly.

However, these are serious descrepancies. Words like "fudged" or "jimmied" just don't cover what Hollings is talking about. Hollings is making some very serious charges.

With everything else the junta has done or is alleged to have done, we may not know the whole truth or the full extent of the damage, it any, for several years.

[AX10]

61. Read THIS:

"In the last five years we have lost 2.9 million manufacturing jobs. To keep us going, the government has cut taxes and goosed the economy with $2.5 trillion in "hot" checks to create jobs. Paul Craig Roberts, Ronald Reagan's economist, states: "No sane economist can possibly maintain that a deplorable record of merely 1,054,000 net new private sector jobs over five years is an indication of a healthy economy."

[MissWaverly]

65. he's juggling the books with our social security money

please tell me that our social security money is not paying for his Baghdad palace, also known
as the U.S. Iraq embassy that is as big as 80 football fields!

[Generic Brad]

66. It's an Enron Presidency

At some point the shell game is going to stop. I am just concerned that when it does, whoever is in the White House in 2008 (most likely a Dem) is going to get the blame by proxy.

[GOPBasher]

68. That's one of my greatest fears. I really think that

when the shit hits the fan, Dems will just happen to control the white house and maybe one or both houses of congress; and the country will just blame them.

[eppur_se_muova]

69. "The Enron Presidency"...Oh, what a memorable phrase. Repeat it widely.

You have a gift with words. :)

[Synnical]

67. Kick so I remember to send

To friends . . . and thanks for all the great links provided herein.

Thanks to all of you!

-Cindy in Fort Lauderdale

[hadrons]

74. great find

thanks

[banana republican]

82. OK children this is how it is...

1) Krugman indicated in 2004 that statistics were being cooked. It started off with employment stats since * was the first president since hoover to loose jobs during an administration. I personally don't believe anything * & company says any more.

2) Harry got it right when he said "Take what ever * & co says and believe the opposite"

3) My wife works at the Census Bureau. They gather ALL of the raw data for the CPI, GDP, Crime Stats, and almost any other set of statistics that the gov't publishes. The "RAW" data is then sent to D.C. where it is "ANALYZED"(or ANAL IZED for the uninitiated) resulting in someone pulling a number out of their butt after having looked at the data and then claiming that it is the fact after changing the standards (e.g. how much does oil count).

4)see this post http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2521108

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

83. Excellent chart, thanks

That's one of the most well-organized and useful economic data compilations I've seen in a while, thanks Banana Republican (clever tag, BTW). Again, this explains a lot-- those of us "on the ground" in the US have had a sense that the US economy is in trouble in many respects no matt what the official figures seem to claim.

Your chart explains a lot, and I've had this sense too. Again, even inflation aggregate statistics (which would presumably be the toughest numbers to hide) are still relatively easy to fudge. One can e.g. discount the effects of gas prices for example, or otherwise move criteria around to generate the sort or result one wishes to see.

[banana republican]

84. Which is exactly what is done.

I don't have the firugres at hand but one of the most critical elements if the cost of fuel. Over the years the "weighting" of fuel has changed inorder to keep inflation "under control".

In order to get a true comparison everything should remain the same as the original survey.

[Up2Late]

85. Thanks, I'd heard about this $720 Billion Deficit, but wasn't sure...

...were it came from.

[Independent_Liberal]

86. It's the Enron era. Definitely.

[0007]

87. OMFG! There it is, number don't lie. Men do.