MT Sen Burns (Abramoff mess) in deep trouble according to Keenan poll

[swag]

Dems have a great shot at unseating Senator Conrad Burns, who is neck deep in the Abramoff scandals. Burns' primary opponent, Republican Bob Keenan, has released the results of a poll he recently commissioned on match-ups in the coming primary and general elections.

Dem contenders are State Auditor John Morrison, the leading Dem money-raiser who seems to be weathering revelations of an adulterous misadventure, and State Senate President Jon Tester, who is generally more beloved in the, ahem, liberal blogosphere. Anyway, some results:

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2006/05/03/news/mtregional/znews08.txt

. . .

Only 29 percent of Montana voters believe Burns deserves to be re-elected, with 60 percent thinking it's time to give someone else a chance and 11 percent undecided, the poll found. Thirty-two percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents favored giving someone else a shot at the job.

“That is among the lowest ‘deserves re-election' percentages we have recorded for an incumbent in a quarter-century of polling,” Ayres said.

However, the poll showed Burns has mounted a wide 62 percent to 15 percent lead over Keenan in the June 6 Republican primary, with 19 percent undecided and two others dividing 4 percent. Keenan jumped into the Senate shortly before the filing deadline. The margin of error for the GOP primary is plus or minus 6.98 percentage points.
. . .
The telephone poll of 600 Montana voters taken April 25-27 showed Democrat John Morrison topping Burns, 50 percent to 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. (Numbers may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.) It found Democrat Jon Tester slightly ahead of Burns, 48 percent to 42 percent.
. . .
If the general election were held now, Morrison would lead Keenan, 43 percent to 33 percent, with 24 percent undecided. There was no Keenan-Tester matchup.
. . .
A Democratic primary matchup shows Morrison leading Tester 35 to 28 percent, with 31 percent undecided. Trailing are Robert Candee of Richey with 3 percent, Paul Richards of Boulder with 2 percent and Kenneth Marcure of Missoula with 1 percent. The Democratic poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 8.14 percent.

Dem challengers:

http://www.jontester.us
http://www.johnmorrison.us

[skipos]

1. Rasmussen has Morrison (D) doing better than Tester (D) againts Burns (R)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Montana%20Senate%20April.htm

From April 15th

Tester(D) 44%
Conrad Burns (R) 47%

John Morrison (D) 47%
Conrad Burns (R) 45%

[swag]

2. Thanks, skip.

That's from April, so if the two polls are comparable, we see Burns trending well down and both Morrison and Tester trending up, all of this in spite of Burns flooding the airwaves with radio and TV ads.

[swag]

3. A kick to get a couple of bucks for the Dems to take this Senate seat

http://www.jontester.us
http://www.johnmorrison.us

and because TPM saw fit to post the poll results.