In House Races, More GOP Seats Look Vulnerable

[William769]

WASHINGTON, May 19 — For months, even in the face of an avalanche of bad news for Republicans, Democratic ambitions for capturing Congress have collided with an electoral map created to protect Republicans from ouster. Despite polls showing rising support for Democrats and scorn for Republicans, analysts have said Democratic hopes for big gains remain remote, because so few seats are in contention.

That appears to be changing.

Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election.

In a Republican primary in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Representative Don Sherwood drew 56 percent of the vote against a little-known challenger, a display of weakness in a race that both parties now see as being in play. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has spent at least $1.9 million in the June 6 special election to replace Representative Randy Cunningham, who was forced out in an ethics investigation, in a California district that should be a cinch for Republicans.

On Friday, President Bush flew to the Congressional districts of two Republicans who had once seemed heading for easy re-election — Thelma Drake in Virginia and Geoff Davis in Kentucky — to help them raise money. A White House adviser said the decision to send Mr. Bush reflected concern about the challenges the first-term incumbents face.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/washington/21house.html?ex=1305864000&en=0a0a9c3f1878a86c&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[annabanana]

1. "safe seats" my ass.. . . . . . . eom

[existentialist]

2. Another article on the Drake race pointed out that

while Bush traveled to a fundraiser for Drake in her district, he AVOIDED being seen publicly on the trip.

It seems that in many districts, including Drakes, that while an appearance by Bush may help milk donations from the hard line Republicans, that Republican strategists consider a Bush public appearance on behalf of a candidate a liability rather than an asset.


I think that says something. They are on the run but won't admit it.

[cliss]

4. At some point, this is going to become an issue.

I'm seeing a pattern here. A Repub is looking for campaign financing. Bush shows up.

What happens? The Repub vanishes! They leave, don't go to the fundraising event, or they claim they had "conflicting" plans.

Now in the early stages, this might not make waves. But as the summer wears on and they ALL leave when Bush comes to town, it's going to become a huge embarrassment. The networks are going to have to say something, as he shows up for fundraiser after fundraiser, and they're ALL GONE.

The Case of the Missing Repubs!!!

[creeksneakers2]

3. Dems are doing better because some listened to the net

I think Democrats have done a much better job fighting back since 2004, when the net gained far more influence and insisted on fighting back. Its paying off. I haven't heard anybody, except the DLC types, say we should be more like the Republicans for some time now.

[Scoody Boo]

5. One thing worries me about this...

we have a great opportunity, just like we did in '04, but our leaders found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so to speak.

Our candidates have to be careful here. A lot of the anger directed at Bush right now is because he is NOT CONSERVATIVE enough. Care must be taken to not alienate those may be leaning our way by overreaching.

[Lefty48197]

6. Democrats are the only ones who could POSSIBLY blow this

.