Why do many think Dems have a better chance to take the House than Senate?

[MoonRiver]

I thought Repuke redistricting scam had made taking back the House really difficult. Plus, I'm hearing about a lot of Repuke Senate incumbents in big trouble, poll wise.

[cmd]

1. It's not going to be easy to take either.

It is going to take every one of us working as hard as we can and donating as much as we are able, if we are to make a difference. We must make our appeal to the nonpolitical voters. The Republicans have been very good at doing that. They are not timid about approaching friends and neighbors. We must be just as aggressive.

[rock]

2. Because more seats are up

The House get totally replaced every two years, while only a third of the Senate is up (six year terms). I think I have this right.

[skipos]

3. I can't estimate the house, but the senate is easier to follow

In my opinion, here are the best possible senate pickups from easiest to hardest:
PA, MT, MO, OH, RI, TN, VA

Maybe there are others, I don't know. It will be very hard for Ford to win TN. He'd be the 1st popularly elected black senator from the south, and the 4th popularly elected black senator. TN isn't IL. He does poll best against Corker (R), so hopefully Corker gets the nomination.

Webb defeating Allen will be another extremely tough one, though the polling is closer than you'd expect.

So even if we win PA (very likely), MT (very likely, especially if Morrison gets the dem nomination), MO (pretty close), OH (Brown usually slightly trails in polls), RI (I haven't seen a poll with Whitehouse ahead yet, but maybe it exists) we would still need to win TN or VA for a majority.

If repub turnout is low we might be in luck.

[LynneSin]

4. Because of the number of seats needed

We only need 15 seats net gain in order to take back the house. And some republican stronghold districts are showing signs of weakness like the upcoming CA-50 race. We need a net gain of 6 senate wins in order to regain the senate and there just isn't enough races out there that are truly competitive for us to find those 6 seats. We would have to pull a victory out in a state like Ohio, where we know the voting system is corrupt, in order to regain the senate.

I think we'll make netgains in both but the house is more doable than the senate.

[Lexingtonian]

5. the key Republican seats appear sorta safe

to a lot of "knowledgeable" observers.

We have 44 Democrats in basically safe seats- I don't think anyone believes Cantwell or Menendez will will be defeated.

Democrats should pick up the Vermont, Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, and perhaps Missouri seats at this point- our side is ahead in those, the DSCC has more money than the RSCC, the incumbents are dying politically. Chafee in Rhode Island has been hanging on in the polls, but I don't think that will last into the fall. That gets Democrats to 50.

Were Snowe (Maine) to have bad health problems or defect, that would help a lot. I suspect Spector (Pennsylvania) is going to resign soon after the election, Democrats winning a Senate majority would accelerate that greatly and we'd get a Democratic appointee. But that's probably next winter or spring.

For now majority and solidity of margin in majority turns on whether our side can win one or two more Red State seats in November. Frist's in Tennessee, Allen in Virginia, Ensign in Nevada, Kyl in Arizona are the realistic targets.

The problem with those is that they aren't easy to read/predict, but they do look like Republicans will hang on to them at the moment by a few percent each. Personally, I think the Tennessee race is out of reach. Arizona and Virginia look like 51/49 outcomes to me. Nevada could be the one that goes pretty strongly one way or the other- it depends on how badly Republicans break down nationally. In Republican eyes there isn't a true point in reelecting Ensign if Democrats control the House, Ensign's patrons in the Senate and White House are going down in flames as a result, and Reid far exceeds him in power and representing Nevada in the Senate.

If it looks like Democrats will get House majority and to Senate majority in September or October, I think there will be a morale collapse among Republicans and we get the Virginia and Arizona seats too.

I don't see how the Republican decline really stalls or even slows during this summer or next fall. They have a stalemate or loser issue in immigration, tax cuts and ethics are losers for them, Iraq is going to drag them down further, they're low on ammunition on guns/abortion/gay marriage. The South Dakota petitioning and referendum stuff that will fill the summer news doldrums promises to expose how feeble their "family values" stuff has become. And we're going to have some partisan bloodletting with the budget fight in July.