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If Clark beats Edwards in TN, where would that leave the race?

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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 07:37 PM
Original message
If Clark beats Edwards in TN, where would that leave the race?
Clark has already beaten Edwards 5 times out of 8 times so far in states where they both were on the ballot. Edwards can claim to have shown strength in New England and in the South (since Clark wasn't competing in Iowa, I'm leaving that out). So can Clark, but Clark can also claim to have shown strength in the West, with second place finishes in AZ and NM, with Edwards no where close.

I think a Clark victory in TN would totally scramble the media's message about Clark and Edwards, and which one has "the momentum". How do you see it?
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Jack_Dawson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 07:46 PM
Response to Original message
1. It would mean a new round of Freepers calling for Clark to get out!
Hahahahahahaha
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
2. Depends what happens in Virginia
If they split, Clark is back to square 1. Edwards' media support is so strong that only clear victories in both states would elevate Clark.
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thedudeingeorgia Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
3. If Clark beats Edwards in TN
If the General wins in TN, I believe that it would propel him as the sane alternative to John Kerry.....and GW.

I think that a Clark win would spell the end of the road for Edwards, although I believe that Edwards would make a good VP under a Clark administration.....
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 07:50 PM
Response to Original message
4. Agree and disagree
First, its simply not fair to exclude Iowa, either you use being on the ballot as the test, or contesting the state as a test. Edwards did not contest AZ or ND (or DE for that matter). Clark just barely topped Edwards in OK and NH, and Edwards well outperformed Clark in MO and SC. Clark spent more money in SC than anyother candidate. Clark certainly did well out west, but he did not win AZ or NM. Edwards did try hard for NM and had basically nothing to show for it. Edwards racked up significantly more votes and delegates.

That being said, a win in TN shakes up everything. This race is all about momentum, and there can only be so many candidates in the race for so long. If either candidate wins both TN and VA, the other is pretty much out of the race. If they split or the vote is really close, then who knows what happens. Then again Kerry could take both and it would not really matter.
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. You make a fair point about Edwards not contesting in the West
Still, as a result Edwards can not yet offer evidence that he can draw support from that region, while Clark can. So if we grant Edwards a strong showing in Iowa, and also throw in Clark's second place in North Dakota, Clark has still demonstrated some strength in more regions than Edwards to date.

I agree with most of what you wrote in general.
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. Depends on which regions we are talking about.
To this point Edwards has done better in the midwest (IA-MO-ND) and the south (OK-SC). Edwards and Clark to this point have done about as well in the north (DE-NH). Clark has however done far better in the west. I don't think its quite fair to compare Edwards 2nd place showing in MO with 103K votes to Clark's 2nd place with 2500 in ND. Clark has not shown strength in the midwest or north, Edwards has shown no strength in the west or north. Leaves the south as the deciding factor, and while Clark certainly did well in OK, Edwards was right on his heels whereas Clark was pretty far behind in SC. To put it in a quantitative form: current pledged delegate counts Edwards 79 - Clark 49 (and thats without all of the MO delegates).
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TexasPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
6. i think its interesting
Clark would likely stick through Wisconsin even if he lost both - but if he lost both to Edwards it would be a harder case.

On the other hand, if he wins TN I dont see why Edwards doesnt stay in. The longer he stays in, the more obstruction he runs for Kerry. So long as Edwards doesnt quit, the press will continue to cast him as the alternative no matter how many times he loses to Clark.
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southern democrat Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
7. I'm in Tn. I''ve been for Clark and remain for Clark
A Clark win here would be great.I also believe it is do-able.Altough I felt better about our chances before the Kerry wins.We have been voting for about 10 days allready (early voting)I haven't voted yet,but my vote will go with Wes along with all my familly.
I also presuaded My county's party chairman to endorse Clark.It's not worth a whole lot because the party is weak in our heavy GOP county.
At this point our competition in my opinion is Kerry.I hate to admitt it but people in Tn are followers,as are most southerners in general.Odds are Tn will go with the front runner,But Wes has a shot if he works his ass off and he has gotten an edge in the early voting before the Kerry performances yesterday.Also all my democrat friends are split between Clark and Kerry with Clark having a slight edge.I personally have not seen very much support for Edwards.Although Edwards is my second pick.
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knight_of_the_star Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. If Clark wins there and VA
Then it will pretty much end Edward's run for President. I hope he can somehow run again for the Senate though, we need the seats.
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jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
9. Why did Clark chicken out in Iowa?
how did Clark fall from 25% to 13% in NH?

Why did Clark almost blow a 10 point lead to Edwards in a span of 3 days in Oklahoma?

how can you explain his pathetic performances in the debates? does he expect crib notes written by clinton aides to help him in the white house?
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. You mean like fumbling on the Defense of Marriage Act
and demonstrably not knowing the first thing about Islamic culture; THOSE pathetic debate performances?

I guess since national security is a "background thing" the answers to all non-domestic issue questions in the fall can be displayed on cue cards for Edwards, if he gets that far.



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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Here is your reply
First, however, may I say that the tone of your post was not welcome. In general I fail to be impressed by put down oriented loaded words like "chicken out" and "pathetic" as a substitute for real discussion.

If I remember correctly, Edwards made his first trip to New Hampshire to lay the ground work for his campaign there in the Summer of 2002. Heard that recently on the radio from a reporter who attended Edward's first NH event. Don't know the date for Edward's first campaign trip to Iowa, but I feel pretty sure it was prior to September of 2003 when Clark entered the Presidential race. At the same time that pundits were talking about how Wes Clark "had NH to himself" for 3 weeks (ignoring Lieberman of course who was there also and attacking Clark) I heard some of the same pundits mention that Edwards had already held over 100 NH Town Hall Meetings.

In September 2003 Clark didn't even have a National campaign office, and Edwards had already been working NH for over a year, I expect Iowa also. Good for Edwards. One can have the opinion that Clark should not have run for President if he was unable to decide earlier to enter the race, though Clark has already outlasted Richard Gephardt, Joe Lieberman, and Bob Graham, who all got into the race a lot earlier than Clark. One can have the opinion that it was a strategic error for Clark to not contest Iowa. That is essentially unknowable, because it is possible that Clark's start up campaign, stretched thin between two "retail politics" states, would not have gotten traction anywhere against a strong field who had boots on the ground in both places a lot earlier. Had Clark attempted to run in both Iowa and NH he might have ended up an early casualty.

I think it is a foolish statement, given all that is obvious about Wesley Clark's life, to suggest that he lacked the courage to run in Iowa.

As for Clark's fall from 25% to 13% in NH, well I would say that all Kerry and Edwards fans owe a debt of gratitude to Clark. For almost a month Clark was the only candidate able to show increasing strength against what was then being viewed as an invincible Dean candidacy. Kerry always had a strong reservoir of support in NH, he was the early favorite, but he couldn't find a way to compete against Dean. Clark did. You may recall that Clark did not start his rise to 25% in NH from 13%, he started out at 7% or 8% at best. Clark gained a lot of supporters in NH, even with two New England favorite sons, and he kept many of them. A good deal of Clark's support when he shot to 25% were voters "borrowed" from Kerry. Those were voters who always liked Kerry but who had given up hope on him as Kerry kept plunging in the National and local polls. It got so bad that Kerry picked up his tent and moved to Iowa where, among other things, he could avoid Clark.

Clark was the first candidate to show that Dean was vulnerable, even in his native New England. What that did was open up the Iowa race. And the candidates who were best positioned to benefit were Kerry and Edwards, since Clark wasn't running there. When Kerry picked up momentum in Iowa, that gave Kerry's natural base of supporters in NH a reason to regain hope, and that allowed them to go back to their original man. And Edwards, of course got the non stop full "golden boy" treatment heading into NH. Hey, they both waged good campaigns in NH, to their credit, but Clark firmed up his support in the last few days and still came in first among the non New Englanders.

As to the debates, we obviously don't see eye to eye on them. However if you saw that last Fox debate ambush you might have a clue as to how they have been stage managed.

I expect Clark's ability and integrity and experience to get him into the White House. I suppose you expect Edwards to win the White House with a great speech?
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NV1962 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 09:25 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Excellent reply, but
you forgot to mention Carol Moseley Braun! Wazzup with that, huh, huh? ;)

Enjoyed both your posts here, little to add.
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maggrwaggr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
12. I honestly think Clark has a major shot at it
I think people see Edwards as a VP to Kerry.

That leaves Clark as the competition. The media seems to be ignoring that Clark beat Edwards in more states than not.

The media loves Edwards because he's so darn cute.

But I think they'd better look out for Clark.

The media assassination of Kerry is about to begin.
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-04-04 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Clark is putting everything into Tenn. like Edwards did in SC
If Clark wins in Tenn. he has shown that he can do well out west and when Nevada, Idaho and Hawaii come up Clark will compete with Kerry better out there than Edwards can. If Clark looses in Tenn. I think he drops out unless Dean endorses him after dropping out.
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