WP political blog: Senate seats most likely to change parties

[DeepModem Mom]

"The Fix," by Chris Cillizza

....4. Missouri -- Jim Talent (R): It's a tribute to Democrats' chances of picking up seats this fall that Missouri is still ranked fourth on the Line. A Research 2000 poll late last month that showed state Auditor Claire McCaskill with a 49 percent to 43 percent edge over Talent demonstrated just how ripe a pickup opportunity this seat is for Democrats. McCaskill is spending most of her time in the Show Me State's vast rural expanses in hopes of improving on her less than stellar showing there when she ran for governor in 2004. She also looks likely to get a turnout boost from ballot initiatives advocating stem cell research and a minimum wage increase -- both of which should pass overwhelmingly. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Rhode Island -- Lincoln Chafee (R): For months we've been mulling moving this race down on the list and now seems like the right time. Just one day after filing to run for re-election as a Republican, Chafee got a nice boost when he won the endorsement of the Republican state convention. Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey and his allies dismissed the convention results as meaningless but it seems to us that if there was widespread dissension toward Chafee it would have come to light here. Chafee's case that he is the only Republican who can beat former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) this fall was bolstered by a recent poll that showed him trailing the Democrat by a single point while Laffey was behind by 30. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Montana -- Conrad Burns (R): Democrats are higher on state Sen. Jon Tester than any other candidate in the country. His farming background, flattop hairdo and unique "hang loose" trademark (the result of his losing his three middle fingers on his left hand to a meat grinder as a child) seem to be the exact right profile for a Democrat to win in this state. Plus, we have continue to believe that Burns' late response to allegations of wrongdoing in connection with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff have damaged him deeply in the minds of voters. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Pennsylvania -- Rick Santorum (R): Another month passes and public polling still consistently shows state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) with a double-digit lead over Santorum. Santorum's first television ad of the race focused on his tough stance on immigration -- a paean to his conservative base. If Santorum is shoring up his base four months before the election he may be in even more dire straits that we initially thought. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/