Greenwich Times: "GOP's Schlesinger wants 3-way race

[Douglas Carpenter]

"GOP's Schlesinger wants 3-way race
By Brian Lockhart
Staff Writer

Published July 5 2006

link:

http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/local/scn-gt-schlesinger4jul05,0,7457634.story?coll=green-news-local-headlines

snip:" Schlesinger said his prospects for victory could not be better, with Lieberman sweating a primary challenge from Lamont and a popular Republican governor on the ticket."

snip:"The odds go way down in a two-way (race, but) I honestly believe I'm the front-runner in a three-way race," Schlesinger said.

Although a recent Quinnipiac University poll showed that a three-way race would give Schlesinger only 8 percent of the vote and Lieberman 56 percent, the Republican hopeful points to a column published last week in The Hill, a Washington, D.C., newspaper. It was written by Dick Morris, one-time adviser to Democratic President Bill Clinton and Republican Sen. Trent Lott, urging Lieberman to avoid "committing suicide" in a primary and focus on his independent run.

"If Lieberman is so weakened by a primary defeat that he fades as a front-runner in the general election, we will see a three-way race that anyone can win," Morris wrote. "

[brentspeak]

1. Some of the GOP -- er, "purist liberals" -- posters on DU want

a three-way race among the candidates, too.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. They'll get what they want in a House race this November

It may cost us a House seat and potentially control, but so what? The former Democrat Scheurer is running as an independent against our incumbent Bean in a very competitive district in Illinois 8. The fundraising is even among Bean and her GOP opponent McSweeney, who is very wealthy. Scheurer is much more progressive than Bean but after getting blasted by her in the '04 primary, 78% to 22%, he was too much of a wimp to contest the primary again this year and switched to independent. If it were a high profile senate race this would be big news and controversial but it gets lost amidst the hundreds of House races.

[dansolo]

19. IL-8 is not a competitive district

Bean's honeymoon is over, and I would expect her to lose this time around, even without an Independant challenger. That is a solidly Republican district, and the only reason that she won before was because of the unpopularity of Phil Crane, the Republican incumbant. That said, in a three way race, she doesn't have any chance.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. The hell it isn't

That is hardly a one sided district anymore and has steadily moved in our direction. It went 70% for Bush 41 in '88 to 55% for GW in '00 and 56% for Bush in '04. Remember, that was with Bush doing 3% better nationally than in '00, but only 1% better in Illinois 8.

You can easily overcome that much of a tilt with a House incumbent, especially in a year that should lean our way by several points to begin with. I agree Crane was the reason she won but McSweeney isn't exactly a world beater, as evidenced by 42% in the GOP primary.

This is a race we needed to maximize our chances to win but Scheurer's entry does exactly the opposite.

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. your right:what's wrong for the Liebermanites is wrong for the Naderites

too

[SOS]

22. Don't worry about the "purist liberals" or the GOP.

In a three-way race, Schlesinger is polling at 8%, according to June Quinnipiac.

[JerseygirlCT]

25. I'd prefer that it be a two-way race -- with the winner of the

Dem. primary being the Dem. candidate.

Sen. Lieberman seems to think otherwise.

[TheVirginian]

26. That doesn't make any sense.

If Lieberman doesn't win the Democratic primary, he won't be the Democratic nominee.

[JerseygirlCT]

27. Right, but Lamont will, and the race will still be between them

The GOP candidate hasn't a shot.

Lieberman has *said* he'd remain a Dem if elected via the "I" line. Right now, I'm taking him at his word.

[JerseygirlCT]

28. Hold on, I think I see the confusion

I'd rather the PRIMARY decide the Dem candidate, and then said Dem candidate runs against the GOP candidate.

Lieberman seems to think that if he loses, it needs to be a 3-way race. I'd prefer not to have a 3-way race, although even if we do, the odds are very good indeed that one of the Dems will be the winner.

Does that clear it up?

[TheVirginian]

30. Yes, it does.

[ulysses]

2. I'll bet he does. n/t

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. wouldn't anybody if they were in his position?

[ulysses]

5. sure! I don't blame him. n/t

[Douglas Carpenter]

31. it's just common sense

[TheVirginian]

33. I wouldn't, and I don't think he does either.

Schlesinger polls dead-last in a three-way race, with less than 10% of the vote, and with Lieberman getting more than 50%. There's no viability in that race, none at all. However, polling against Lamont, Schlesinger gets 20% and Lamont gets 36%. With that amount undecided voters, Schlesinger at least has a prayer, though its still very unlikely. However, this scenario only happens if Lieberman doesn't run in November, and it looks like the only way to get Lieberman out of the race is to increase pressure on Lieberman from his base. So a little statement like this can go a long way of rallying the liberal base to buck Lieberman in hopes of pressuring him out.

[skipos]

3. Another Repub who supports Joe's independent run!

What a surprise! :eyes:

[Douglas Carpenter]

14. that's a good way to put it

[calico1]

6. Of course he supports a 3 way race.

Its the only way he has a snowballs chance in Hell to pull it off though even then it would be uphill for him. I can't see him as the front runner though.

[Douglas Carpenter]

12. you're absolutely correct

somehow or other a few people are trying hard to rewrite reality on that question though

[AX10]

8. Schelsinger is a kook. He is a right winger all the way.

He makes Lieberman look like a lefty. With that said, Alan wants a three-way race because that is the only way that he stands any chance of winning.

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. it's so obvious that a 3-way race is by far the GOP's best chance

but some people don't seem to want to admit it.

:shrug:

[Orangepeel]

9. Duh.

:eyes:

[Douglas Carpenter]

10. I agree Duh

but there are people here on this forum who don't seem to understand that. :banghead:

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. ....

[KingFlorez]

16. Lamont needs to drop out

It's the only way to avoid this sort of problem.

[Douglas Carpenter]

17. or perhaps the one who loses the Democratic primary should accept

the decision of the Democratic primary voters and back the winner of the primary. Mr. Lamont has already pledged that he will do that.

[calico1]

21. Um, no.

The person who loses the primary should back the winner and not run on another ticket. Doing THAT is what could avoid "this sort of problem."

[IndianaGreen]

32. Let Lieberman drop out, or better yet, commit hari kiri

for bringing dishonor to his party!

In the end, it will be up to Connecticut Democratic primary voters to decide who their Senate nominee is going to be. If Lieberman loses and then chooses to run as an unaffiliated candidate, he can fuck himself, and if anyone supports him in DU, I will more than happy to hit the alert button.

[Douglas Carpenter]

18. ....

[kentuck]

20. Joe will find that he doesn't have much Repub support...

if he runs as an Independent. He could take enough votes from Lamont to let the Repub win. However, it does appear that Joe will win the Democratic primary. I have my doubts that enough Democrats will desert Joe's corner to permit Lamont to win. After all, people see their support of a candidate as an investment in a way. They have a lot invested in Joe...

[Douglas Carpenter]

24. kick

[Douglas Carpenter]

29. /