Will Ralph Reed Survive His Primary?

[wyldwolf]

Several Georgia DUers, including myself, have been stressing about Ralph Reed's run for Lt. Governor. Now fellow Georgian Ed Kilgore of the DLC provides his take:

Boy, the calendar really snuck up on me like a crafty pick-pocket: the Georgia primary that will, among other things, determine Ralph Reed's political fate is just eleven days away.

The Man Who Would Be Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, as part of a Master Plan to stroll into the White House in 2016 or so, is fighting for his life against primary challenger state senator Casey Cagle. A poll taken by the Georgia-based firm Insider Advantage on June 26-27 has Reed ahead of Cagle 32-27, with a gigantic 41 percent still undecided. According to a report from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jim Galloway and Tom Baxter, here's what Insider Advantage's savvy Matt Towery had to say about the poll:

Those who are shocked at the large undecided percentage in this survey should understand that these two candidates have only been up on broadcast television for under a week. As we’ve noted in the past, Reed may be well known in political circles, but the average voter has little if just a hazy idea of who he is and what office he is seeking. And Sen. Cagle suffers from the same anemic name identification.

Towery thinks the dynamics help Reed. I dunno. The release of the final Senate Indian Affairs Committee report on the Abramoff scandal, which toted up Reed's take from casino tribes to campaign against competitors at more than 5 million smackers, did not come at a good time for Ralph. And Cagle's final TV blitz is all about Reed and Abramoff (Reed is retaliating with ads claiming Cagle got fat and happy from his own state legislative service).

As a Democrat, I hope Reed wins the primary; his nomination will not only give likely Democratic nominee Jim Martin a good shot in November, but could wreak holy havoc on the whole GOP ticket, headed by Governor Sonny Perdue, whose private opinion of Ralph is unprintable in a family-friendly blog.

But as an expatriate Georgian, who bleeds Bulldog red-and-black, yearns for the sight of landmarks like the Big Chicken, and goes home pretty regularly to get re-crackerized and eat some decent grits--I don't want my home state to do much of anything to facilitate Ralph Reed's visions of grandeur. His exposure as part of the Abramoff scam, along with long-time buddy Grover Norquist, is a perfect reflection of his role in the mutual corruption of social and economic conservatives in the latter-day GOP. Whether he loses on July 18 or in November, he needs to lose, and it will be a fine day in Georgia when the chickens all come home to roost, and Ralph Reed's political ambitions finally expire.

This mirrors my though ts as of late. Originally I was promoting the idea that Democrats should cross over and vote for Cagle to deny Reed the election. Then a friend of mine who works as a lobbyist in the State Capital told me that the State GOP is actually worried about a Reed victory, citing insider polls that say his numbers in the general are low and that voters would be less likely to vote for GOP governor Perdue with Reed in the general.

[autorank]

1. I agree with his sentiments. Nobody really wants Reed to win

anything, even given the political advantage of a damaged candidate in the general and a display nationally of Republican corruption. This guy needs to be showing the exit in record time.

[Joanne98]

2. Reed was incharge of installing Diebold machines in Georgia,

in 2002. Of course he'll win.

[burned]

5. No

Cathy Cox bears responsibility for that.
And she won't win.

[Joanne98]

7. But Reed was Georgia's election manager in 2002.

He ran southern Florida in 2006. Cathy Cox is a criminal but Reed is a bigger one.

[napi21]

3. Thanks! I hadn't seen any poll #'s on Reed, but I tell everyone

I meed about his connection to Abramoff! Ohhhh, I so much want the GOP thieves out of office here!!!!

[flordehinojos]

4. hope there is a major power out in GA on primary day. hope no electricity

is available to feed the Diebold machines. Hope they hare to resort to paper ballots and paper-ballots counting. otherwise, the diebold machines will install reed there just like they installed jeb in fla. in 2002, bush in ohio in 2004, and the guy who ran against obrador in mexico just a few short days ago.

[lonehalf]

6. Democrats know who Reed is.

When I poll Democrats in North Georgia Reed has approximately 75% to 85% name recognition.

But all other candidates - including Cagle and Democrats - are in the 30% range.

I have heard that the Democrats are going to crossover and vote for Cagle but I haven't seen any evidence of it.