MO Senate: McCaskill (D) 42%, Talent (R) 42% - July 6

[skipos]

"This shift marks a percentage point drop for Talent countered by a two point pick up for McCaskill since last month’s poll. The closeness that has become the hallmark of this race has been evident from the start: only once in eight polls have the candidates been more than three percentage points apart."

"While the candidates are even in the polls, Talent has a significant fundraising advantage. The latest campaign finance reports show that the incumbent has nearly $5.7 million cash on hand compared to McCaskill’s $2 million."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/moSenate.htm

Other polls have had McCaskill up a bit, but Ras has always had this race closer.
I don't want to hear no Diebold Defeatism, lets get this seat! :patriot:

[wakeme2008]

1. I don't want to hear no Diebold Defeatism, lets get this seat!

then you need to get at a min a 7 point spread....

:shrug:

[skipos]

3. Is that always the case?

Because Kaine (D) was only up by 2% in the last pre-election poll in VA. He went on to win by 6% on Diebold machines. Good thing Democrats didn't give up, wouldn't you agree?

Are you doing anything to help McCaskill get a 7 point spread?

[wakeme2008]

4. IMHO the Diebold solution can only be done

in so many cases. Again IMHO if you have 20 Dems all leading in the pre-election polls and in the exit polls, and then all lose, even the stupid MSM will not be able to buy that...

One vote counting fraud is proved in one election, then all elections that equipment was used in would be in question.

[skipos]

6. VA was only 1 of 2 governorships on the ballot in 05,

Kaine (D) was behind in the polls until about a week or two before the election, and VA is a red state. If Kilgore (R) would have won, no one would have been marching in the streets over it. It should be noted that Dems also won the NJ that year (most polls predicted this) and defeated all of Arnie's proposals in CA (polls did not predict that). Again, plenty of Diebold used in those elections, and NJ was the only place that the Dem had a 7% lead.

Cantwell (D) sure didn't have a 7% lead over incumbent Gorton (R) in WA in 2004. And there were a slew of other races we won without a 7% lead.

I disagree with your theory that we need 7% margins to win.

[OzarkDem]

2. Take Rasmussen w/ grain of salt

He's been messing w/ polls for Ohio Senate race lately, he's a right winger. Better to check against other polls.

That said, I'm glad McCaskill is doing well. I'm getting my son to work for her campaign back in MO.

[TheVirginian]

5. Don't dismiss pollsters just because you don't like their results

Differences between pollsters are because of methodology, not because of percieved bias. No pollster can claim that their polls will be correct on Election Day. They're not predictions, they're indicators of how the race is progressing. Because of that, its important to consider a wide variety of methodologies, including those that produce results you find unfavorable.

[OzarkDem]

7. That's not the case w/ Rasmussen

His polls have been way off other polls in the Ohio Senate race. It always looks strange when you have two pollsters like Zogby and Survey USA (both surveying likely voters, BTW) who show Sherrod Brown with a 7-12 point lead over DeWine, yet a Rasmussen poll taken at the same time showing DeWine ahead by several points. It doesn't add up.

[TheVirginian]

10. To the contrary...

The latest Rasmussen poll has DeWine at 39%, Brown at 46%. Zogby: DeWine 34%, Brown 46%. SurveyUSA: DeWine 39%, Brown 48%. So Rasmussen is in line with other polls.

However, addressing the larger point, there are more polls to pay attention to than just SurveyUSA, Zobgy, and Rasmussen. There are literally dozens of pollsters, including internal polling, and they all use different methods for getting their results. There is no way you can say that one is more or less accurate than the other. It is simply absurd to dismiss one pollster because you don't like what it says. You're just sticking your head in the ground.

[Hippo_Tron]

8. Robin Carnahan is Secretary of State in Missouri

I don't think that Diebold is something to worry about. What we have to worry about are the states where Republicans count the votes.

[The Magistrate]

9. That Is A Point Worth Remembering, Sir

[pstokely]

11. But she has alllowed Diebold machines to used