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[WillyBrandt]

1. Equal--they both have outside chances of winning

Both have their strong and weak points, and there are paths for both. But Kerry is in the driver's seat.

I say this as a strong Clark supporter.

[DjTj]

2. Identical.

The battlefield is Tennessee and Virginia. February 10 will make the difference.

[hope42mro]

3. Clark is in better shape. Has better Foreign & Military experience

[bain_sidhe]

4. Counting IA & NH They're dead even

As far as the "win place or show" - Each has won one, come in second in three, and come in third in one.

[krkaufman]

5. They're in "equal positions" relative to next week

They're in "equal positions" relative to next week, in that they have nearly the same number of delegates and both need to fair better than the other in Tennessee and Virginia to continue. Only one of them may continue beyond that day -- unless they tie, dog forbid.

As for afterwards, assuming an Edwards win I don't see him standing a chance against Kerry due to his lack of *any* national security expertise and general lack of experience. He's a great speaker and motivator, but that won't win the election. I would hope that we wouldn't nominate Tony Robbins, either.

Were Clark to fair better, Edwards' departure would make it a 2(3) man race, and the media would have a somewhat more difficult time ignoring him. The press would hopefully then focus not on Janet Jackson's mammaries but on a one-to-one comparison between the two.

Hope yet remains for our democracy.


p.s. Of course, the odds of the outsiders winning here is largely dependent on the "outsider" vote not being split in Tennessee. Were Dean and Gore to throw their this-state-only support behind Clark in Tennessee, it might even be enough for Clark to thrash both Kerry and Edwards.

[Quixote1818]

6. Clark is leading Edwards in Tenn and Tied in Virginia. Advantage Clark

[arewethereyet]

10. the current polls do not reflect recent history

advantage noone as yet. We have all seen how moods can swing rather dramatically in the rareified air of February Madness.

[Bucky]

7. I'm strongly pro-Clark, but my gut says Edwards is in better position

Despite the polls, I think Edwards is in the better position. Edwards outperforms expectations quite consistantly. Clark, who may be too much of a uniter among Democrats, seems to fade in the home stretch as soon as things get nasty.

I don't think he'd fade against Bush cause he has no trouble blasting away at imcompentence. But making the case for a fellow Democrat's negatives always takes a touch of intellectual dishonesty. I don't think Clark has a good capacity to go negative against Edwards or Kerry. He can slam dunk Republicans seven ways to Sunday, which is red meat to his crowds, but he can't make the nuance of saying "Kerry is bad for us because..." effectively. At the end of the day he keeps on saying things like "I'll be happy if Kerry gets elected president" which is death to any candidate's raison d'etre.

Edwards on the other hand has learned to finesse things on the stump. He's an amazing, if slick, stumper. He never fades, although he sometimes doesn't catch on. But I fully expect to see him tighten the gap in Virginia and Tennessee. I hope he doesn't over take Clark--I want Wes because of the kind of president he'll be. But I think it's entirely in Edward's grasp to come quite close.

We'll see in week. I think Wisconsin is the break point for one of these two. Super Tuesday needs to be a two-man race and we already know Kerry's one of the two (and the weaker of the two against Bush, as well).

[Piperay]

18. That's the way I feel too

hope I am wrong though.

[mikehiggins]

8. They may seem equal but

Clark seems able to keep on raising money.

Worse, from Edwards point of view, his overwhelming Iowa momentum has twice failed to overpower Clark's "declining" campaign.

If Clark had Edward's good press the guy from North Carolina would be heading for home right about now.

Let's see what happens next.

I can't believe that less than fifty pollsters and pundits are going to decide who is our nominee but it looks pretty much that way right now.

[Kathleen04]

9. Equal.

How well they do in Tennessee and Virginia will be the fork in the road that differentiates them strategically.

[arewethereyet]

11. and I hear that Clark is quitting VA for Tenn

to go along with his money issues.

they're differentiated now.

[jenk]

12. Clark would've quit period......if it wasn't for Gert

So the Clark supporters better send her thank you letters

He does have a better chance in tennessee since the latest poll puts him ahead of edwards by 6pts while they are tied in Virginia. But Edwards will compete heavily in both, Clark in only 1.

[arewethereyet]

13. and we all know what he can do in a week

for that matter, we also know what the General can do in a week as well.

I'll take those odds...

It would be fun to know if that story is true or not.

[jenk]

15. re

and Clark really lucked out in NH and Iowa, Edwards raced back from 10-15 points into a dead heat. He just ran out of time. This time the gap isn't so great, and we know what a great closer he is.

[mikehiggins]

14. Money issues? Got a cite on that one? eom

[jenk]

16. there was a thread here

about staffers deferring paychecks, plus he's put the train up again. seems very dean-like.

it seems to me a lot of people in the Clark campaign are whining.

[arewethereyet]

17. I think its pretty widley known that staffers are going without pay

for a week or something.

Link ? no. shouldn't be too hard to find if you're interested. have fun.