State governorships most likely to change parties in November

[DeepModem Mom]

washingtonpost.com's Politics Blog
"The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Friday Line: Md. Jumps 4 Spots on Govs. Rankings

(Following are the four most likely of ten.)

....4. Maryland: Meet Bob Ehrlich (R) -- the most vulnerable governor up for reelection in November. Ehrlich's chances suffered a double dose of bad news over the last few weeks. First, Doug Duncan dropped from the race -- allowing Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley to avoid the bumps and bruises of what looked to be a competitive primary. Then The Washington Post published the results of a poll showing the incumbent trailing O'Malley 51 percent to 40 percent among registered voters and 55 percent to 39 percent among those most likely to vote. Even more troubling for Ehrlich: He trails by double digits even though majorities of the sample approve of the job he is doing (56 percent approve/41 percent disapprove) and view him favorably (55 percent favorable/38 percent unfavorable). Conclusion? Marylanders know and like Ehrlich but won't vote for him. That spells trouble. (Previous ranking: 8)

3. Arkansas: Even Republicans acknowledge that the former Rep. Asa Hutchinson's (R) gubernatorial campaign is not where they would like it to be. State Attorney General Mike Beebe (D) continues to outraise Hutchinson, although recent fundraising events featuring former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney should boost the Republican's coffers. Both candidates are portraying themselves as men of substance (Beebe just released a twelve-point health care plan; Hutchinson has a four-point immigration proposal) and attacking each other as lightweights. Beebe has run the better campaign to date and looks well-placed to capitalize on voters' desire for change after ten years of Republican rule under Gov. Mike Huckabee. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Ohio: National Republicans continue to insist that Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell has a real chance of winning this race despite the hurdles created by the ethics problems of outgoing Gov. Bob Taft (R). We're still not sold. Democratic nominee Ted Strickland is running a VERY savvy campaign; this week he began running ads on religious radio stations around the state touting his background as a minister and a man of faith. He has also met several times with Republican Sen. George Voinovich. Blackwell looks likely to make a real race out of this, but count The Fix as skeptical that he can win. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. New York: Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi appears likely to petition his way onto the Sept. 12 Democratic primary ballot, forcing state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer to campaign for his party's nomination. Suozzi has also started to criticize Spitzer for an alleged conflict of interest stemming from the attorney general's seat on a family charitable foundation. Given Spitzer's poll numbers, Suozzi's efforts could well be sound and fury, signifying nothing. Former state Assemblyman John Faso will be the Republican sacrificial lamb, er, nominee. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[KingFlorez]

1. Democrats are doing pretty well

Hopefully it holds

[movonne]

2. Yes, if we could do something about the voting machines...If it

were going to be a fair election, we would win hands down...

[KKKarl is an idiot]

3. Polls

Lets hoope this trend holds. This site has the polls showing what people will vote in the november elections:

www.pollingreport.com

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Thanks, KKKarl! nt

[calimary]

14. Indeed. And Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Blue_In_AK]

5. I see Alaska is #10 on that list...

Whoever we get, as long as it's not Frank, will be a hell of a lot better. He's been an unmitigated disaster. Even the Republican-controlled legislature is opposing him at every turn. I don't see him making it out of the primary next month.

[BlueIris]

6. At least people have stopped claiming OR's Gov. is in danger. He ISN'T.

And that's not just my love for him posting.

[Cha]

12. Who is the Gov of Oregon

and why do you love him?

[thatsrightimirish]

7. This actually isn't a trend

It was very predictable that the democrats will do well in the statehouse so this isn't anything really new. Actually the democrats could pick up way more than 10 in 2006

[Awsi Dooger]

8. This writer is trying too hard for balance

He's got potential GOP takeovers way too high on that list. Sometimes I'm ripped as not being enough of a cheerleader in regard to our election prospects but this is one case where I can use real-world balance and it looks like cheerleader mode. We keep posting about the House and Senate meanwhile the near-certain huge year is coming in the gov races. If we can just hold those midwestern incumbents...

1) New York
2) Arkansas
3) Ohio
4) Massachusetts
5) Maryland
6) Colorado
7) Alaska
8) Iowa
9) Michigan
10) Wisconsin
11) Florida
12) California
13) Illinois
14) Maine
15) Oregon
16) Nevada

[sonroadera]

10. I agree with that.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Perhaps Maine should be higher

I didn't notice the recent SurveyUSA poll until today, Baldacci trailing 43-41. But the crosstabs are 38% GOP, 33% Democrats, which is not representative of Maine's partisanship: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=e614a78d-6f9b-44f0-a403-26fb403f7ed7

[JNelson6563]

9. Michigan

Between the way Granholm's campaign is dropping the ball and the boatload of money scAmway's Dick DeVos has, we're in trouble here.

Julie

[yellowcanine]

11. I am from Maryland and I am nervous about that high favorability rating.

I just hope O'Malley runs a good campaign. Last time around we were sunk by a pathetic campaign by Katherine Kennedy Townsend. No way should a Democratic woman have lost in Maryland to a meatball like Ehrlich. I don't see how Ehrlich's ratings can be as high as they are. He has virtually done nothing right and is the epitome of the "empty suit." The only thing he has going for him is a strong economy in Maryland and he had zilch to do with that.

[ArkySue]

13. Re Arkansas

"Hutchinson has a four-point immigration proposal..."

This is rich! Asa!Hutchinson?? He worked as Undersecretary for Border Security ('03-'04)at Homeland Security and NOW he has a proposal!! BWWAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!! (wiping eyes here) hahahahaa. What a maroon!