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Edited on Sun Jul-16-06 11:25 AM by safi0
I like to do these every couple months just to update the progress of the various races. As we get close and closer to election day I may do them more often.
Best of the rest:
Nebraska-Ben Nelson isn't my type of Senator, but his constituents seem to love him and the only reason this race is even on the radar is because its Nebraska.
Prediction: Nelson wins 57-42
Washington-Numerically I think this race may be close, but I have yet to see how McGavick can overcome Washington's left-ward tilt.
Prediction: Cantwell wins 53-46
Arizona-Jim Pederson did a substantial ad buy a while back and it resulted in a bump in the polls. Since then, this race has been pretty quite. The only way Pederson can win is if he continues to do ads.
Prediction: Kyl wins 54-45
Connecticut-Not exactly sure where to place a race like this, since the Republican has next to no chance of winning. I think Lamont wins the primary, what will be interesting then is to see how many Republicans and Indies go over to Lieberman.
Prediction: Lamont wins the primry by about 5-8 points. He goes on to win the general with about 36-40% as Republicans believe that their candidate can actually win with the Democratic vote being split.
My top 10
10. New Jersey-As you can see by my ranking I'm not nearly as concerned about this race as others. Kean really is nothing more than a last name and Menendez has begun to expose him as, as much. This isn't Okahoma its New Jersey, Kean will not win a Senate race just because of his last name and that's all he has going for him right now.
Prediction:Menendez wins 54-45
9. Virginia-This is a race that has a lot of potential to move up. Allen is scared of Webb because is everything Allen isn't an everything Allen wants to be. Everyone knows that the debates between these two are going to be great, but Webb has to prove himself as a candidate in terms of retail politics, fundraising, handshaking, things like that. Allen's biggest advantage right now is that he has like a 20:1 cash advantage.
Prediction: Allen wins 52-47
8.Maryland-Unfortunately Michael Steele put up huge fundraising numbers in the last quarter. Other than CT, this is the only other compeitive primary we still have. I think that Kwesi Mfume can win this race, I think Ben Cardin would. That's the question a lot of MD Dems are going to have to ask themselves, do you back the candidate who is maybe not your ideal candidate but would probably win rather easily, or the candidate who is ideologically close to you but would be in a dog fight. If Mfume wins the race, he's going to need a lot of help from the DSCC. Mfume has around 300-500K COH and Steele has 4.45 mill.
Prediction:Cardin wins the primary and the general
7.Tennessee-If their was ever a perfect time to win this race its now. We have a candidate who, while probably not DU's favorite candidate, is young, very smart, and very charismatic. On the other hand the Republicans are having a bitter, divisive primary full of 2nd tier candidates. Van Hilleary is the guy I'm hoping doesn't win the GOP primary. He comes from a swing district and is someone the base would turn out for. Ed Bryant comes from a strongly conservative area and can easily be portrayed as a nut. Bob Corker is a guy who I'm not sure the GOP base would turn out for. Maybe someone from TN can give me some insight about who's leading, because I have no idea.
Prediction: Hilleary wins 52-47, and if he doesn't win the primary Ford would beat the other two.
6.Ohio-As evidenced by Dewine's new ad, this race is going to get real ugly. This is probably the pre-eminent swing state. Bush has terrible approval ratings, and Dewine's are rather mediocre. The problem seems to be that Sherrod Brown has yet to really be able to tap into the anger people have towards Bush and the OH GOP. I'm constantly going back and forth on this race, I'm in the optimist period right now though.
Prediction: Brown wins 50-49
5.Minnesota-Minnesotans you have my deepest sympathy because you are going be bombared with ads soon. Both candidates are raising money at an impressive clip, and Klobuchar has just started her first ad buy. One of the only states, where Kerry bested Gore and I don't know who are the Kennedy Democrats. That was a weird term, the Mark Kennedy Demcorats. Point being, that until he finds some of those I don't see how he wins.
Prediction: Klobuchar wins 52-47
4.Missouri-This race has been the definition of a toss-up. McCaskill is running a very smart campaign, going after the people who had soft support for Blunt over her in her 04 Gov race. Maybe its just me, but I'm waiting for one of the candidates to say or do something that will give either candidate any real kind of advantage. That opportunity may present itself to McCaskill as the Senate starts to debate the stem cell bill. If Talent votes against it and Bush uses his first veto on it this may be the opening McCaskill needs. MO has a stem cell initiative on the ballot and McCaskill has been a very strong supporter of it while I believe Talent is on his 7th position on the issue.
Prediction: McCaskill wins 51-49
3.Rhode Island-First things first, if Laffey wins the primary this race immediately goes to number one on this list, as I think the closest I've seen a Laffey-Whitehouse race was 53-27. So the rest of my analysis will be on a Chaffee-Whotehosue race. Whitehouse and Chaffee were pretty much even in finances after the first quarter and since then Whitehouse's primary opponent dropped out and he had fundraisers with Jack Reed and Bill Clinton. Take into account the fact that Chaffee has a primary and Whitehouse doesn't and Whitehouse will almost certainly head into the general election with a money advantage. Also, Ramussen shows that Whitehouse leads Chaffee in their newest poll 46-41. Its still on the premium section of Rasmussen's site, but Whitehouse has it on the front page of his site.
Prediction: Whitehouse beats Chaffee 52-48
2.Montana-I think Conrad Burns is fucked. I think everyone thinks( as well they should) that he's just another corrupt member of Congress. Their obvious going to try to portray Tester as a guy who will burn all your flags take away your bibles and marry all the gay people. His early rhetoric shows that he's not going to put up with that. The only thing Burns has going for him is that he has a lto of money and MT is just one media market making it relatively cheap. I think that the opinions of Burns are pretty much set in stone for Montanans.
Prediction: Tester wins 53-47
1.Pennsylvania-Casey entered the race around January/February of 05, a year and a half ago. That entire time Casey has lead in the polls and everyone keeps saying this race will tighten up. Despite that, virutally the entire time the polls have remained consistent. They show Casey in the low to mid 50's and Santorum in the high 30's to low 40's. The only thing Santorum has is the same thing Burns has which is money. Casey has a solid amount of money, but Santorum still has a strong COH advantage. Dfference between him and Burns is that PA is an extremely expensive media market. I hope PA residents don't view it this way, but as a resident of Wisconsin I can say that Santorum is finished.
Prediction: Casey wins 56-44
Unless Ed Bryant or Bon Corker win the TN primary I don't have the Dems taking back the Senate. Under my predictions, it would be 50R 49D and Bernie, essentially an evenly split Senate with Dick giving the GOp the advantage.
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