For Democrats, Wave Is Building
By Thomas E. Mann
Sunday, July 16, 2006; B01
There's probably no way congressional Republicans can lose this fall, no matter how unpopular President Bush is or how unhappy the voters are with the war in Iraq. That's the prevailing view in Washington today.
But it's wrong.
If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.
Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering. Bush's job-approval rating is below 40 percent, and congressional job approval is more than 10 percentage points lower. Only a quarter of the electorate thinks the country is moving in the right direction, and voters are unhappy with the economy under Bush. Finally, Democrats hold a double-digit lead as the party the public trusts to do a better job of tackling the nation's problems and the party it would like to see controlling Congress.
What's causing the skepticism about Democrats' chances for victory in November are changing election patterns. Until recently, one of the few iron laws of American politics was that the president's party loses House seats in midterm elections, with the size of the loss depending on how many seats are at risk and how the public evaluates the president's performance. But all that seemed to change in 1998.
more...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/14/AR2006071401391_pf.htmlConyers:
Blogged by JC on 07.16.06 @ 01:20 PM ET
Conventional Wisdom on House Turnover Changing?
Excellent Piece by Mann in Today's PostThere is a good piece on Democratic prospects for taking over the House in, of all places, today's Washington Post, written by, of all people, Brookings' Thomas Mann, entitled,
"For Democrats, Wave is Building." Mann is one of the so-called "Washington Wise Men" and has been referred to as the "human quote machine" by virtue of his innumberable quotes on politics in the media.
Many articles on the horse race elements of this year's midterms, tend to ignore real analysis and merely recite problems caused by redistricing, fundraising, and differing Democratic views on the war, and jump to the conclusion that a House takeover was far fetched, notwithstanding consistent double digit deficits in the generic polls for the GOP. To his credit, Mann goes beyond this facile analysis and cogently analyzes the facts on the ground and the trends that are afoot.
Here is Mann's key paragraph:
"But my own reading is that the odds favor a Democratic takeover of the House. The 15 seats that the party needs for a bare majority is well below the range of minority-party gains in past tidal-wave elections. The national winds blowing against the GOP are strong and have not diminished over the past nine months. Credible progress on the ground in Iraq before November is implausible. The public's harsh evaluation of the president's performance on the economy is unlikely to be reversed by Election Day. Prospects for significant legislative achievements in the remaining months of this Congress are remote. Enough seats will be in play (including some that Republicans carried in 2004 with more than 60 percent of the vote) to allow Democrats to gain majority status in the House."
It is still early, and clearly, after failing to take back the House for the last ten years, I take nothing for granted. But we have a golden opportunity this fall, and well all need to do everything within our power to make it happen, for the good of our nation, not to mention, the future viabililty of separation of powers. I will be working tirelessly from now till November to see that this happens, but I will need your help.
http://www.conyersblog.us/archives/00000504.htm
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
