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MD Senate: Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 41%; Mfume (D) 44%, Steele (R)45%

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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 11:37 AM
Original message
MD Senate: Cardin (D) 47%, Steele (R) 41%; Mfume (D) 44%, Steele (R)45%
Ben Cardin (D) 47%
Michael Steele (R) 41%

Kweisi Mfume (D) 44%
Michael Steele (R) 45%


Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin still leads Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele, but no longer by double digits in this tightening race. Cardin now leads Steele by just six points, 47% to 41%. In February he had led Steele by fourteen points, which by April had dropped to a ten-point lead (see Crosstabs).

Steele is neck-and-neck with Democratic NAACP President Kweisi Mfume, with Steele nominally leading, 45% to 44%. In April Mfume led by four points, after the two had been neck-and-neck in February, Steele 42%, Mfume 41%. The main change for this match-up is that more voters have made up their minds.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/mdSenate.htm
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
1. Kind of a schizo race...
I think if Cardin wins the Dem primary, his support will go back up, and he would beat Steele failry easily. Mfume would lose to Steele.

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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Why would Mfume lose?
Not challenging you, I'm asking. I know nothing about Maryland.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. More polarizing...
And he has skeletons in his closet related to issues of infidelity in his marriage. I think this is reflected in the polls you see.

Cardin is a Sarbanes type Democrat, solid, intelligent, reliably progressive, the kind of Senator Maryland has historically gone for...

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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 12:39 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. The "skeletons in the closet" worry me about Mfume too
Even if it is total BS, we all know how effective Swiftboating is. Cardin doesn't have much material for the GOP to work with, but Mfume does IMO.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. The thing about Swiftboating
is that there doesn't need to be any material to work with. They made stuff out of thin air about Gore and Kerry, even turned their strengths into weaknesses. Did the same thing to Ann Richards here in Texas.

In fact, the person they may have had actual material to work with was Clinton. Obviously it was all overblown, but he did have affairs. He was the one they couldn't touch. My own theory is that Republican smearing works better on clean candidates than muddy ones, because you can't defend yourself against something you didn't do.

Not arguing for Mfume, just making comments. I'm interested in this race now. I liked him as a Representative, but it's not my state, and I certainly don't know the politics there.
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TheVirginian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. The race factor in this election is off the charts.
If Cardin wins the primary, Steele's best chances are hoping that African-American voters either stay home or defect. The best hope for this is massive campaigning in Prince George's County, which is 63% black, and where Cardin has barely spent any time or money in, but where Steele and Mfume are running their campaigns out of.

If Mfume wins the primary, most African-Americans will vote for the former NAACP chairman, but many white voters, mostly moderates and independents, will vote for the Lt. Governor rather than the charismatic and scandal-riddled Mfume.

While Mfume rallies the base, Cardin is a stronger, safer state-wide pick, and that's reflected in the polls. Cardin has a lot more independent and moderate support, as well as an extensive resume and Congressional record. He comes across as "Senatorial", but he doesn't excite anybody.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Maryland goes for those types...
"He comes across as "Senatorial", but he doesn't excite anybody."

Sounds like Paul Sarbanes...a great Senator and someone Cardin is in the mould of.

"Mac" Mathias, liberal Republican in the seventies and early eighties was in this mould as well..


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TheVirginian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Yes, but how often are they met with an alternative?
Cardin is definately in the mold of Sarbanes, but in an election where there is no incumbent, will an X-factor like Mfume shake things up? This race, in particular, is more extraordinary because the GOP Candidate is black as well, which affects the dynamic of the race. Steele's race amplifies Mfume's race, and suddenly a race where Ben Cardin thought he could coast his way to victory in the mold of Paul Sarbanes is focusing on an issue that's out of his control.

Once a strong, Senatorial incumbent is in office (like Sarbanes), its difficult to justify kicking them out for not being charismatic. But in an open election, its a completely different dynamic. This is a once-in-a-lifetime election for candidates like Michael Steele and Kweisi Mfume.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 11:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. See the part about 50% of polled wanting a Democrat, to 31%
wanting a Repub? That's a great sign, but the numbers above that should make us worry about November. In the actual race, with people, everything is close to even. We can still lose big in November, even if the Republican Party is unpopular, if our candidates don't give voters a reason to choose them instead of the Republican candidate.

I've always like Mfume, and didn't know he was running. Does he have a chance in Maryland? Is Cardin a good candidate?
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TheVirginian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. But another part of the poll is equally important:
That is, how many people vote based on party alone, and how many people consider other factors, like personality, accessability, and race.

Mfume is a charismatic candidate, and he's currently running just a hair behind Cardin in the primary polls. Cardin is extremely qualified, has good fundraising and CoH numbers, and is a safe, known quantity with no ripples in his resume.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. Yeah, but 50-31 is the party ID breakdown in Maryland
That's virtually identical to the partisanship in the 2004 Maryland exit polls. It would be quite a feat to blow this one.
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win_in_06 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
9. If Cardin wins the primary the Steele camp will agressively seek
the black democratic vote.

The race card will be played hard.
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FreeStateDemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
12. Baltlimore Sun: Cardin, Mfume in Senate tossup

36% of state's Democrats unsure as primary nears
By Matthew Hay Brown
sun reporter
Originally published July 17, 2006
With the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate less than two months away, Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin and former congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume remain locked in a virtual tie, according to a new Sun poll.

If the primary were held today, the survey finds, each candidate would get about three out of 10 votes.

More than a third of the state's Democrats haven't decided on a candidate to face probable Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele in the general election for the rare open seat - a huge bloc of voters that remains unmoved from a Sun survey conducted eight months ago.

The indecision increases to 45 percent of Democrats in the heavily populated Washington suburbs, and 55 percent in Western Maryland, regions where the Baltimore-based front-runners are largely unknown. (cont'd)

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-te.md.poll17jul17,0,549888.story?coll=bal-home-headlines

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agincourt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
14. Very infuriating,
The GOPigs should be a in a crapper in all 50 states. When will people figure out they have no "moderates"?
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Totally Committed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 06:42 PM
Response to Original message
15. I can't believe Mfume is behind Steele!
I don't know much about Cardin, but Mfume should be beating that sleazebag, Steele, without working up a sweat!

This world really IS upside down and inside out right now. Orwell would feel vindicated.

TC
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NJ Democrats Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
16. Cardin will win easily
if he is the nom. if Mfume wins, then it will be very close.
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-17-06 07:10 PM
Response to Original message
17. Close polls = fraud invite? MD, too ==HIGH RISK, all DRE, paperless state
Edited on Mon Jul-17-06 07:59 PM by tiptoe
"If the gubernatorial race in 2006 is as close as 2002, it would only take four errors per precinct to change the outcome of the election. Maryland cannot risk the election disaster that is impending. Maryland was lucky the presidential election in Maryland was not close; otherwise we would be embroiled in scandal to this day..." -- Linda Schade, director of TrueVoteMD.org. Emerging Scandal on MD Voting Machine Performance March 9, 2005.

"In November 2002, popular Georgia Democratic Senator Max Cleland led by 5 percentage points prior to the election – the first ever conducted entirely on touch-screen voting machines. But then a mysterious swing of 12 percent on election day led to his defeat." slide 8: ELECTION FRAUD 2004
"We will hold the House (of Representatives) and the Senate," Bush said in the first formal, solo news conference he has held outside of Washington. "I'm looking forward to these elections. I think you'll be surprised..." July 7, 2006
(Pretty upbeat for the leader with a falling approval rating of 36%.)


from Malfunction And Malfeasance - A Report On The Electronic Voting Machine Debacle by Common Cause:
p18, CHART A Status of State Voting Systems
p19, CHART B State-By-State Voter Risk Assessment
p20, CHART C Mid-and High-Risk States That Allow No-Fault Absentee Voting
A state is considered HIGH RISK if the DREs are in use, but they do not produce a paper record at all. In these states, votes will simply be lost if machines malfunction or votes are compromised due to programming errors or malicious code. p17
HIGH RISK States:
Arkansas <YES>
Delaware
District of Colombia
Florida <YES> -- 2006? 5/25/06: Nelson (D) 56% Harris (R) 26%
Georgia <YES> (Max Cleland "surprise" 12% reversal, 2002, in this HIGH RISK state)
Iowa <YES>
Indiana
Kansas <YES>
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland <YES> -- 2006? 4/18/06: Cardin (D) 45% Steele (R) 35%
New Jersey <YES> -- 2006? 6/15/06: Menendez (D) 43% Kean (R) 36%.
Pennsylvania -- 2006? 6/15/06: Santorum (R) 40% Casey (D) 49%
South Carolina
Tennessee -- 2006? 6/13/06: Corker (R) 46% Ford (D) 42%
Texas
Virginia -- 2006? 6/17/06: Allen (R) 51% Webb (D) 41%

Common Cause recommendations: ibid. p21-22:
"In those states marked “yes” in the chart [C] above, Common Cause recommends voting by absentee ballot, if voters’ only other option in their precinct is a paperless DRE."
However...NOTE re Maryland absentee ballot practice in 2004: (emphases mine)
10/26/2004 | Ballot secrecy violation | MD | Absentee ballots have an identifier on the outside envelope, indicating the party of the voter. Election watchers say the party tags invite fraud because a ballot handler who disagrees with a voter's party choice could simply throw out his or her ballot. Maryland State Board of Elections officials maintain there is no cause for concern, but they have also said they might (!!!) discontinue the practice in future elections. Story Archive
("Maryland elections' chief Linda Lamone...said she trusts state workers, and does not believe that anyone would try to affect the election by illegally discarding ballots...")


Brennan Center for Justice Security Recommendations: THE MACHINERY OF DEMOCRACY: PROTECTING ELECTIONS IN AN ELECTRONIC WORLD -- Executive Summary, pp 3,14 -- Full Report, p3,87
SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS

There is a substantial likelihood that the election procedures and countermeasures currently in place in the vast majority of states would not detect a cleverly designed Software Attack Program. The regimens for Parallel Testing and Automatic Routine Audits proposed in the Security Report are important tools for defending voting systems from many types of attack, including Software Attack Programs. For the reasons discussed, infra at pp. 6–7, we also believe that these measures would reduce the likelihood that votes would be lost as a result of human error.

Most jurisdictions have not implemented these security measures. Of the 26 states that require a voter-verified paper record, only 12 states require automatic audits of those records after every election, and only two of these states – California and Washington – conduct Parallel Testing. <190> Moreover, even those states that have implemented these countermeasures have not developed the best practices and protocols that are necessary to ensure their effectiveness in preventing or revealing attacks or failures in the voting systems. There is a substantial likelihood that the election procedures and countermeasures currently in place in the vast majority of states would not detect a cleverly designed Software Attack Program.

Recommendation #1...
Recommendation #2...For paperless DRE voting machines, Parallel Testing is probably the best way to detect most software-based attacks, as well as subtle software bugs that may not be discovered during inspection and other testing...
Recommendation #3...


VotersUnite.org compilation of Election 2004 problems reported in the media by State

Date      | Problem Type     | State | Description

=================================================================
3/8/2005   | Machine malfunction | MD     | All Maryland voting machines have been on ''lockdown'' since November 2, 2004 due to statewide machine failures including 12% of machines in Montgomery County, some of which appear to have lost votes in significant numbers.

According to the IT Report to the Montgomery County Election Board, dated December 13, 2004, screen freezes, which occurred on 106 voting units were "the most serious of errors" because many "froze when the voter pressed the Cast Ballot button." As a result "election judges are unable to provide substantial confirmation that the vote was in fact counted." Story Archive
==================================================================
11/23/2004 | Machine malfunction | MD     | TrueVoteMD's trained election observers 201 machine malfunction in the 108 precincts they observed, which represent 6% of the state's precincts. Among the problems were 42 instances of machine crashes, 30 screen malfunctions, 17 instances when votes were switched on the screen, 37 problems with the ballot encoder, and 16 incidents in which the ballot was incorrect or incomplete. Story Archive
==================================================================
11/4/2004  | Machine malfunction | MD     | Data transmission failures occurred in 14 precincts. Story
==================================================================

...


From Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr. June 1, 2006
...
After carefully examining the evidence, I've become convinced that the president's party mounted a massive, coordinated campaign to subvert the will of the people in 2004. Across the country, Republican election officials and party stalwarts employed a wide range of illegal and unethical tactics to fix the election. A review of the available data reveals that in Ohio alone, at least 357,000 voters, the overwhelming majority of them Democratic, were prevented from casting ballots or did not have their votes counted in 2004(12) -- more than enough to shift the results of an election decided by 118,601 votes.(13) (See Ohio's Missing Votes) In what may be the single most astounding fact from the election, one in every four Ohio citizens who registered to vote in 2004 showed up at the polls only to discover that they were not listed on the rolls, thanks to GOP efforts to stem the unprecedented flood of Democrats eager to cast ballots.(14) And that doesn?t even take into account the troubling evidence of outright fraud, which indicates that upwards of 80,000 votes for Kerry were counted instead for Bush. That alone is a swing of more than 160,000 votes -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House.(15)
...
Republican officials...created long lines by failing to distribute enough voting machines to inner-city precincts. After the Florida disaster in 2000, such problems with machines were supposed to be a thing of the past. Under the Help America Vote Act, Ohio received more than $30 million in federal funds to replace its faulty punch-card machines with more reliable systems.(137) But on Election Day, that money was sitting in the bank. Why? Because Ken Blackwell had applied for an extension until 2006, insisting that there was no point in buying electronic machines that would later have to be retrofitted under Ohio law to generate paper ballots.(138)

''No one has ever accused our secretary of state of lacking in ability,'' says Rep. Kucinich. ''He's a rather bright fellow, and he's involved in the most minute details of his office. There's no doubt that he knew the effect of not having enough voting machines in some areas.''
...
Voters who managed to make it past the array of hurdles erected by Republican officials found themselves confronted by voting machines that didn't work. Only 800,000 out of the 5.6 million votes in Ohio were cast on electronic voting machines, but they were plagued with errors.(164) In heavily Democratic areas around Youngstown, where nearly 100 voters reported entering ''Kerry'' on the touch screen and watching ''Bush'' light up, at least twenty machines had to be recalibrated in the middle of the voting process for chronically flipping Kerry votes to Bush.(165) (Similar ''vote hopping'' from Kerry to Bush was reported by voters and election officials in other states.)(166) Elsewhere, voters complained in sworn affidavits that they touched Kerry's name on the screen and it lit up, but that the light had gone out by the time they finished their ballot; the Kerry vote faded away.(167) In the state's most notorious incident, an electronic machine at a fundamentalist church in the town of Gahanna recorded a total of 4,258 votes for Bush and 260 votes for Kerry.(168) In that precinct, however, there were only 800 registered voters, of whom 638 showed up.(169) (The error, which was later blamed on a glitchy memory card, was corrected before the certified vote count.)...

(FIRST RFK JR. VOTING MACHINE WHISTLEBLOWER LAWSUIT NOW FILED IN FEDERAL COURT! NEW DETAILS! BLOGGED BY Brad on 7/12/2006)
(Mike Papantonio on the Mike Malloy Show (mp3))


From How to Keep Democrats From Blowing the November Election by Bernard Weiner (emphasis mine)
HOW TO HIJACK AN ELECTION

As many have noted, the Bush campaign was aided enormously in this thievery because their campaign co-chairs in key states were also the Secretaries of State — that is, the officials in charge of conducting elections and certifying the vote results: Katherine Harris in Florida in 2000 (with brother Gov. Jeb Bush overseeing her work), and, in 2004, Kenneth Blackwell in Ohio, Terry Lind in Michigan, Matt Blunt in Missouri, Glenda Hood in Florida, et al.

It has been widely documented that nefarious techniques were employed in key states to aid Bush’s "victory," such as: removing hundreds of thousands of likely Democratic voters from the voting rolls; rejiggering the precincts so that when those voters went to their usual polling place, they were told they had to go vote elsewhere and when they got to the new place, they had to vote by Provisional Ballots (in Ohio, thousands of those ballots apparently are still uncounted!); making sure the voting machines in heavily Democratic wards were out of commission or malfunctioning or too few in number for the crowds who wanted to vote, thus forcing working-class citizens to stand in line for many hours, with the result that many gave up and went back to their jobs; thousands of unstamped ballots that were moved around to various precincts; locked warehouses in which various electoral irregularities were carried out; dirty tricks to keep likely Democratic voters from showing up (supplying them with the wrong voting date, telling them that anybody with unpaid parking tickets would be arrested at the polls, that sort of thing); not always catching that e-votes for Kerry automatically, either deliberately or because of technical malfunctions, were being switched into the Bush column, etc. etc.

With several hundred thousand voters kept from casting their ballots in Ohio, for example, the ultimate conclusion is that Kerry would have won that key state, and other close states, had the election been conducted honestly, absent the dirty tricks and fraud. But, of course, before any serious recounting could take place, Kerry, despite his promise to fight, quickly threw in the towel, as had Al Gore four years earlier, which haste and timidity permitted Bush&Co. to continue on their corrupt, incompetent, deadly ways.

These were shameful, cowardly Dem retreats by the candidates in the face of fire. Only now are Gore and Kerry starting to behave and speak out the way they should have during their campaigns, at least about the environment and civil liberties and the war in Iraq, leading one to believe that those two are readying themselves for another go in 2008...

========
E-Vote Security - Timeline,Reports,Tech Studies

NJ: A BIG danger <in NJ> is election fraud...in a "HIGH RISK" state (All DRE, no VVPB)
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