Joe Lieberman is getting his ass kicked in Connecticut right now.

[saltpoint]

Within the hour his campaign has had to issue a statement to the press that Joe will "not run as a Republican."

That's absolutely pathetic.

Should Ned Lamont prevail in the August 8th primary, I believe that the incentive for support for Lieberman will evaporate like a popsickle on a summer sidewalk.

In an extremely short period of time, Lamont has stormed the castle and is scaling the very walls.

Go, Ned.

[kaygore]

1. I hope Ned prevails to warn other DINOs

[Karmageddon]

2. Even if he doesn't, it's close enough that the DINO's have been warned.

[Warpy]

3. That's my fondest hope, too

that he pulls them back from blatant conservatism and makes them truly moderate.

If that doesn't happen, we'll have to pick them off one by one.

[saltpoint]

4. I may be off on this, but I think it's not a DINO thing with Joe so much

as a selfish, me-only, I'm-a-star thing.

He is really ego-centric.

[buff2]

8. He IS a Dino,old C.

Some of the things he's said is exactly what I've heard repukes say.He's more of a conservative republican than he is a progressive Democrat,and that's a fact,Jack! :hi:

[saltpoint]

9. I hear ya, but I was thinking about how other conservative Dems

don't grandstand.

You can hardly get more conservative than ol' Ben Nelson out in Nebraska, but Ben is a modest guy. He doesn't shove himself in front of tv cameras all the time the way Holy Joe does.

That's what I was getting at there. I didn't say it very well.

[buff2]

14. LOL,that's ok Old C

I understand what you mean,but I don't care that much for Ben either. I don't like "conservatism" period....from either side. They make the wrong choices and play with people's lives,especially with that holier than thou "morality" shit.

[saltpoint]

Yep. Ben Nelson doesn't seem especially personable.

Maybe he is. But he doesn't seem like it.

He seems like kind of a taxdermied animal over a lodge wall fireplace.

[Stinky The Clown]

20. I think you're very right. A guy like Ben Nelson is far better than

a guy like Lieberman, even with his (Nelson's) awful voting record. I've yet to hear him tear down the party like Holy Joe does. I've yet to hear him make a big deal of anything.

[kaygore]

52. Good point--but why support Bush to the degree that he does?

[saltpoint]

68. The point is temperament. I was objecting to Lieberman's

temperament.

[buff2]

5. Hey,Old Crusoe!

That is great news! Lieberman is a pathetic excuse for a Democrat. I am still baffled as to why Al Gore chose him as his running mate.All Joe has ever done is help the repukes. His love affair with Dim-son is about the most ignorant and repulsive act he's ever done. It makes me SICK. :puke:

[saltpoint]

6. Hey buff2. How ya doin'? Well, I KNOW you're doin' better than Holy Joe.

Lieberman is a 3-term U.S. Senator who is now tied, or narrowly trailing a heretofore unknown businessman.

That is NOT an encouraging trend line.

I think we're watching Ned Lamont's rising star, and I think he's going to be the next U.S. Senator from Connecitcut.

[buff2]

10. I'm hangin in there Old C.

Having a LOT of serious problems with a drug addicted son,so my life is hell right now,but I have to keep having hope.Xanax.......prescriptions from numerous Dr's. I hate drugs,I see what destruction they can do to people's lives. It ain't pretty.

Back to Joe. I pray he loses. We need to get rid of so called "Democrats" like him.They don't help us at all.......they HURT us. They couldn't get enough people to vote to over ride that stupid veto the idiot did yesterday. Look at all the pain and suffering that millions of people will have to endure.......even un-necessary deaths because of his incompetence and ignorance. God,it's so sad. We are in deep shit and no way out. I hurt for all of us. :cry:

[saltpoint]

18. Good luck with your son. That's a lot more important that Lieberman's

pathetic senate campaign.

Make sure you have good counsel a phone call away on things -- drug addiction isn't a sin, just a symptom, and anybody can fall victim. I'm sure you know what you're doing as a parent. A lot of us would understand the kind of rough road that can be, so you hang in there.

[buff2]

26. Not to much I can do

He's 35 years old. I almost lost him twice this year......two major surgeries,now this. Drug addicts hide it a lot of times. He's been on prescription drugs for a lot of years. Doctors kept giving them to him,he kept taking them. I would love to sue the one that got him started on Xanax. It has ruined his life. The last Doctor has taken him off cold turkey.....it's driving him insane and I don't know what to do about it. With drawls is killing him and I can't get him to admit himself into D-Tox.

[saltpoint]

32. I didn't realize he was 35. That makes it tough. Are there counselors

about who could assist in an intervention?

buff2, this is not going to be easy, but round up all the well-positioned help you can find.

[buff2]

37. I don't live in the same county he does

I live over 2 hours away......hard to do much,but I'm doing what I can by phone. He has to make the choices,I can't do it for him. I was with him Tuesday and it was very painful. He is in so much agony it almost made me sick.The pain in his eyes was horrible.

[saltpoint]

38. I feel helpless that you feel helpless and too far away in miles and

years to have a direct impact.

I know your heart is aimed for the right thing here, but I hope you can find somebody who can throw in and give you, and your son, the help he needs.

[buff2]

41. Thanks Old C.

I'm not giving up. I will find some help soon. I have hope. :hi:

[saltpoint]

42. ------ ---------

:thumbsup: :hi:

[longship]

7. Go Ned, Go.

DINOs in blue states, be warned.

[TheVirginian]

11. The only reason Lieberman had to release that statement...

Is because of irresponsible "reporting" by progressive blogs.

[saltpoint]

13. Not true. He released it because of its plausibility.

NO ONE would have been too surprised if he'd try for the Republican nomination.

Not a soul.

He is not a loyal man. He holds himself over our party. And he has paid for it in the polls.

[buff2]

17. Right on!

IMHO- he's for HIMSELF.......and to please bu$h.Plain and simple.

[TheVirginian]

21. Actually, he holds the voters of his state over the party.

What a shitty representative for his people, actually claiming that they come before the Democratic Party. Even if only a third of his constituents are Democrats, and even though he swore an oath of office to represent his state, he should know that his loyalties should be to all Democrats, even those that don't live in CT, and not the people was elected to represent. He should get what's coming to him.

[saltpoint]

24. No, he doesn't. He holds himself high on FOX News programs. He

grandstands against the party's platform (whose voters elected him from their state as a DEMOCRAT). And he wants 2 raffle tickets to win the prize to Lamont's 1.

He's a cry-baby and a self-important grandstander.

And he's on his way down.

[TheVirginian]

28. I disagree, and you've said nothing to counter what I've said.

[saltpoint]

34. If Joe Lieberman remained in solid standing with Connecticut Democrats

his ass wouldn't have just lost 35 polling points in 5 months.

[calico1]

35. Bingo! n/t

[TheVirginian]

46. Polling points aren't the mark of approval, approval ratings are.

Lieberman's approval ratings have been pretty consistent in the last two years.

[saltpoint]

48. Sorry. He's in a downward spiral. Lamont's numbers are on the ascent.

It's lookin' real bad for Holy Joe in that primary.

[TheVirginian]

50. But its the general election that determines who is Senator.

And Lieberman at this point is cruising to re-election.

[saltpoint]

51. He's cruising over a waterfall in an ever-shrinking boat.

He could pull it out as a pouty, me-first indy. Sure.

And then again he might not.

[TheVirginian]

53. He most likely will pull it out. He has support from most I's and R's.

He has the support of the majority of the state, and most of it is where Lamont's left-wing connections can't gain in-roads to.

[saltpoint]

54. I think ol' Ned's people know what they're doin'.

My money's on the new guy.

[TheVirginian]

59. Yes, they do know what they're doing.

They know that the ONLY chance they have of getting elected Senator is to pressure Lieberman out of the race if he loses the primary. So they're putting all of their efforts towards that end.

[saltpoint]

64. They were miles behind only 3 or 4 months ago. This mornign

they're tied or in the lead.

Sounds like a pretty resourceful bunch to me.

[TheVirginian]

76. Sure, but its not the primary that determines who is Senator.

They've made huge gains among Democratic voters, but they can't do the same among Independents and Republicans.

[saltpoint]

80. You might be surprised. My hunch is you've been plenty surprised

so far in Lieberman's incredible slide downward.

I don't see him making a lot of gains among Democrats. And I don't believe this morning's Quinnipiac poll will remain fixed at those percentages.

I don't think Lieberman's campaign staff does either.

[TheVirginian]

83. I never claimed it would stay fixed. But I don't see Lamont gaining 24 pts

In order to defeat Lieberman in the general election, Lamont has to get a huge amount of Independents and even some Republicans to vote for him instead of Lieberman. Considering that Lamont's support is based mostly out of the left-wing of the Democratic Party, this is a nearly impossible task. Especially when you consider he's down by 24 points.

To make a point of comparison, Dale Groutage (D) in Wyoming is trailing incumbent Craig Thomas (R) 33%-57%, according to the latest Rasmussen poll. He's 24-points behind in the general election, just as Ned Lamont is. Should we then consider Senator Thomas among the most vulnerable incumbents?

[saltpoint]

87. The fact is, Connecticut voters will make that decision. Not you, not me.

Lamont's campaign has come from nowhere to tie or nose ahead of Joe Lieberman.

If Lieberman thinks he's going to win praise by running as an independent, he has discovered that he's the subject of vitriolic comment on SEVERAL blogs, and his standing has suffered in more traditional venues as well.

His numbers are on a downward spiral. Period.

No poll showing Joe Lieberman in the lead 3 weeks, 3 months, 6 months ago is today accurate. That lead is gone and his primary challenge is real and right in his face.

He could yet prevail and I will congratulate the victor.

Ned Lamont has said he will also endorse Lieberman if Joe beats him in that primary.

Joe, like a pouty little 6-year old brat, will NOT support Ned if Ned wins and will instead run as an independent.

That is shitwork.

If Joe wins the primary, he wins handily in November, no question.

If Ned wins the primary, you are going to see a MAJOR shift in those poll numbers.

[TheVirginian]

97. Why do you think we'll see a major shift?

You think Ned Lamont is going to attract more Independent voters than a centrist incumbent? Lieberman might lose some support, but Lamont won't make up 24 points.

[saltpoint]

98. As I've said before, I think Ned Lamont's campaign is infused with

good energy.

I definitely think it best not to underestimate him.

[Vickers]

43. That's bullshit.

In the primary, he is NOT representing the state. He is vying for the nomination for the Democratic Party, with all the responsibilities AND advantages that entails.

And as far as representing the people of CT, his support of the war is a minority opinion these days.

[LoZoccolo]

12. Right, due to someone asking...

...and citing the lack of an immediate response as proof that he would be.

[saltpoint]

15. Well, you enjoy your candidate in that primary. 20 more days.

[LoZoccolo]

16. Enjoy this thread while it remains unlocked!

:hi: :nuke:

[buff2]

19. What's wrong with an honest discussion?

Opinions not aloud? God almighty.....has Bu$h gotten to you too? :cry:

[TheVirginian]

23. Its quite dishonest to use the claim that Lieberman was mulling a GOP bid.

[saltpoint]

25. ...but quite justified to discuss it, as Holy Joe's own campaign issued

the statement.

It was issued owing to its plausibility.

[TheVirginian]

27. No, the statement was issued due to irresponsible reporting.

Having to release a statement to counter a flat-out lie is not a sign of anything but irresponsibility on the part of whoever spread the lie.

[saltpoint]

30. Have it your way. But the public denial of a 3-term Democratic

Senator that he's not running as a Republican is absolutely pathetic.

Not by any means a position of strength.

Joe Lieberman is on his final days as a U.S. Senator.

I believe if Lamont wins the primary, Joe will withdraw his intentions to run as an independent.

[TheVirginian]

31. Based on what?

[saltpoint]

33. Lieberman, supposedly a Democrat, has lost all his ground to a

primary challenger.

All of it.

Issuing a statement that he is not running as a Republican is a pathetic gesture.

It's completely pathetic.

[TheVirginian]

47. No, he hasn't.

He's in a statistical tie with a primary challenger, propped up by hype from the left-wing of the party and money from a number of out-of-state liberal activists. While there's a strong chance he won't win the primary, he hasn't lost his support.

The only thing pathetic about the whole "mulling a GOP bid" saga is the irresponsibility of the progressive blogosphere. He was forced to issue a statement because people spread absolute lies on the Internet and a large number of people, based only out of their dislike for Lieberman, bought into it without even an attempt to learn what, if any, veracity the claim had.

[LoZoccolo]

49. It's like a bunch of adolescent vandals are taking over.

Believe it or not, I don't care if Lamont wins and then goes on to win the general. I am neutral as to who sits in the Connecticut seat as long as it's a Democrat (even if one of them runs as an independant). What I'm concerned about is this reckless and unskillful approach to electoral politics by a gaggle of rank amateurs who'll bitch and tear stuff down and cause a ruckus but typically won't do anything political outside of the room their computer sits in.

[saltpoint]

57. You don't mean "vandals." You mean "Democrats."

[saltpoint]

55. This morning's poll was not among liberal bloggers.

You are dead wrong on that.

Lieberman has lost his lead.

[TheVirginian]

61. Lieberman (I) 51%, Lamont (D) 27%.

[saltpoint]

63. You're a dazzling typist.

Not so good at discerning polling trends, but your typing is top-drawer.

[TheVirginian]

77. All poll trends are pointing towards Lieberman being re-elected.

[saltpoint]

81. It could be that the me-first indy Joe will prevail.

It could be that Lamont kicks his butt on August 8 and Lieberman decides to step aside.

He is certainly stinking up the place with this "I want TWO raffle tickets to Ned's ONE."

Not my kind of Democrat.

[TheVirginian]

85. So don't vote for him. It doesn't justify inventing reality.

The truth of the matter is that, right now, Lamont is 24 points behind Lieberman, and isn't likely to gain the support from the people he needs to in order to close that gap enough to make the race competitive.

[saltpoint]

88. With the right combo of drugs, Virginian, realty invention is ALWAYS

justified.

But back to politics.

I'm not a registered Connecticut voter. Registered Democrat in another state.

But the U.S. Senate is national, even international in many aspects.

I think Lieberman has done my party a disservice and I endorse both the primary system that offers opportunty to challenge him AND his current opponent, a man I feel will more reliably vote a deeper blue instead of bootlick a miserable president.

[TheVirginian]

90. I'm not trying to convince you to support Joe, just to look at the polls.

And the polls show Lieberman with a 24-point lead over Lamont.

[saltpoint]

93. No, they do not. They show that Lieberman's once hefty lead

has evaporated, and that Lamont is poised to win the primary on august 8th.

AFTER WHICH a new poll will be taken to assess Holy Joe's standing among the state's voters.

Watch this space.

[TheVirginian]

100. Based on what?

What are you basing your assertion that we'll see a dramatic decrease in support for Lieberman if he loses the primary? There is nothing to back it up.

[saltpoint]

102. You keep typing that. Ok, you can stop typing it now. The question

has been answered.

The poll was taken this week. This week is not the week of August 9-13.

That later poll will show different numbers.

If Lieberman wins the 8th they'll likely show a big bump for him.

If Lamont wins, same thing.

The whole ground shifts if Lamont's current ascent in the polls continues.

[TheVirginian]

103. Based on what?

What makes you think the later poll will show different numbers? And not just different numbers, but as you've stated many times, dramatically different numbers?

[saltpoint]

107. If you will take a look at Lamont's numbers over the last 6 months

you will see a meteoric rise.

Not my opinion. True numbers.

Lieberman is going down. His numbers against Lamont are down. Way down. Rapidly down. Down, down, down.

Do you acknowledge that Ned Lamont has tied or nosed ahead of Joe Lieberman? If you can get that far, you can also accept that ALL polls change, whether toward your candidate or the other candidate.

Lieberman counted on a comfortable lead because Lamont was an untested newcomer.

Lamont's people appear to have done a terrific job and this morning is proof of that.

The numbers this morning can still change. Perhaps Lieberman will prevail in the primary. It's very close. perhaps he will not.

But if you take Joe Lieberman's position 6 months ago and compare it today, you get the title line of this thread.

[TheVirginian]

112. But you have to look beyond just numbers and see where that support is.

Lamont's numbers have greatly increased---among Democrats. Which is why he's currently tied with Lieberman in the Democratic primary.

Lieberman's support among Democrats has dropped, but his support among moderates and Independents has stayed steady, if not increased.

Lamont is shares more values with Democrats than Joe Lieberman does, which is why more Democrats support him. The same cannot be said for Lamont and Independents and moderates, all who have more in common with Lieberman.

Over the course of a primary campaign, Lamont has increased his standing and name regocnition among Democrats now to the point where he's tied with Lieberman. That is a great achievement. But you simply cannot assume the same thing will happen in the general election with independents and moderates. Its a completely different election, and while Lieberman was vulnerable to his left, a fact that Lamont proved, he's not vulnerable to the center, where his base is.

[saltpoint]

122. I think it's naive to count out a capable challenger. Lamont is one such.

[TheVirginian]

123. I'm not counting him out. I'm stating the odds.

[saltpoint]

128. You don't know the odds.

Neither do I. Neither does anybody.

One poll July 20 is not the caption beneath the Senate race in Connecticut on either August 8th or November 7th.

You are hunching. I am hunching.

My point is that Lieberman has lost enormous ground over the last year, and for damned good reason, and right now he is, as my title line suggests, getting his ass kicked.

[TheVirginian]

131. My hunch is based on numbers. Yours are based on wishful thinking.

The only indication of how Lieberman will do as an Independent are the polls commissioned thus far. All of them have Lieberman by a large margin. Lamont's success in the Democratic Primary doesn't just automatically carry over to the general election.

[saltpoint]

134. Say that it does. Say that it does translate.

Are you going to post a nasty anti-Lamont thread if it happens?

Will you change parties?

Why hasn't Lieberman offered support for Democrat voters' choice in his state as Lamont has?

Why is he running as an indy if he loses? Is it self-importance? It's legal, but it kinda sucks, doesn't it?

Where do you stand on those questions?

[TheVirginian]

137. I haven't stated my personal preference this entire thread.

If Lamont wins, then as an observer of elections and campaigns, I'll be very interested in it, and I'll probably study it for a while.

[saltpoint]

144. And you know, there isn't a SOUL who could even guess at who you favor.

[Name removed]

147. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TheVirginian]

148. All I've done is defended the veracity of the polls.

Are you denying that Lamont's base comes from the far-left of the party? Are you denying that Lieberman's support comes from moderates and Independents? Are you denying that the polls currently show Lieberman with a huge lead over Lamont?

I never said that Lamont's support doesn't count. Lamont's support counts a lot, especially in the primary. My point was that Lamont's support won't be enough to defeat Lieberman in a general election.

[CTLawGuy]

152. wasn't the last poll 61-19 in favor of Liebeman?

The change in the 2-way race poll is most likely due to Lieberman's decision to rebuff the primary process. Democrats don't take kindly to such disloyalty.

and don't talk to me about being "loyal to all the voters". In the GE, people can vote for whomever they want for senate. Joe doesn't need to be in the race to give them a chance to vote for him.

His running as an indy is purely about himself and his own ego.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[buff2]

39. No he's not,LoZoccolo

He just has a different opinion than you,that's all. :hi:

[saltpoint]

40. You misspeak.

[mtnsnake]

111. You're usually right, LoZo, but Crusoe's not a troll

From what I've seen in the past, he's very reasonable, even when in disagreement

[saltpoint]

22. So far so good, anyway. You sure do have a vested interest in Joe

Lieberman, LoZoccolo.

It's too bad he's going over the dam in a barrel.

[buff2]

29. And I LOVE it!!!!!!!!!

I hope he LOSES,and loses BIG. I can't stand him. He drug Al Gore down and that was enough.

[mtnsnake]

91. How did he drag Al Gore down?

Just curious.

[Old and In the Way]

44. I think Joe threw his lot in with the MSM.

Over the years, Joe decided that high profile exposure would offset a state infrastructure. He got his weekly view time on the media networks by being a "good" Democrat. One that could be counted on to support this administration and the MIC. He could view his independent thoughts without feeling the heat from his constituents. In return he got the media oxygen and the PAC funds. I guess it worked pretty well for him...up to now.

Poor Joe, he's cut off from his base and there's nothing he can about it now.

[saltpoint]

45. Old and In the Way, that is just an excellent analysis.

Bingo.

[AtomicKitten]

56. He's behind in the Dem primary.

But according to this http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2732416&mesg_id=2732416
he's ahead as an indie.

[saltpoint]

58. Right now that's what the poll says about Joe as an indy.

Should Lamont win the primary, however, the interest swings to Lamont. Joe's lead as a me-first indy will evaporate, IMO.

If Joe loses in August, Joe loses.

[AtomicKitten]

60. I hope Lamont goes all the way.

That would be a statement.

[TheVirginian]

62. Based on what?

Independents don't care about Democratic Party politics. They won't swing to Lamont if he wins the primary. If anything, more Independents will support Lieberman if he runs as an Independent.

[saltpoint]

65. But by that logic, no Democratic voters would have swung to Lamont

if Lieberman hadn't prompted them to.

Looks to me as if independent voters anyplace reserve the right to vote for whomever they wish.

Is that a problem?

Or is it just a problem if they don't support your candidate?

[AtomicKitten]

66. I agree that some Dems will stick to the party and switch to Lamont

if Lieberman does bolt, but this poll seems to have factored that in.

[saltpoint]

67. No, it didn't. The poll did not factor it in. The poll taken after the

primary, if Lieberman wins on August 8th, will likely show Joe a big favorite.

If Lamont wins, Joe's number in that August 9-13 poll may not be nearly as encouraging.

[AtomicKitten]

69. yes it did

Lieberman (I): 51%
Lamont (D): 27%
Schlesinger (R): 9%

[saltpoint]

70. No, it didn't. The primary is August 8th. It was not this week.

Those numbers project CURRENT viewpoints.

If Lamont defeats Lieberman in August, those numbers will change.

[AtomicKitten]

73. It factors in Lieberman running as an independent.

That is a projection. This is what people are saying they will do in the event of Lieberman running third party.

This is the best indicator we have now of what might happen. Numbers may shift a bit, but this poll seems pretty solid in its projection.

[saltpoint]

75. No, it is not "solid"; it is fluid, like all polls. It is a snapshot of

current viewpoints and positions for right now, this week, this minute if you like.

But it is not a fixed entity or property or value. Numbers change. Poll numbers especially change.

The point made was this: If Lieberman wins August 8 his numbers in THAT poll immediately following will reflect a significant bump upwards.

If Lamont wins August 8 HIS numbers in THAT poll immediately following will reflect a siginificant bump upwards.

In the latter case, the "projected" numbers will dramatically shift.

[AtomicKitten]

78. I think we are arguing semantics.

The poll is solid in the snapshot currently, all else is speculation.

You cannot state unequivocally that the numbers will shift in any direction, unless you have an operable crystal ball. I do, however, hope you are right. I hope the Democrats that are clinging to Lieberman will decide to vote on the side of democracy in the general election and honor the will of the Democratic primary voters.

We shall see.

[TheVirginian]

79. Again, I ask, based on what?

Why will Lieberman losing the Democratic Primary cause a large number of Independents to go against him?

[saltpoint]

82. Just freeze the question right there. That's a good topic for another

post.

You can't project a Lieberman victory in November based on this week's poll numbers.

Bad science.

[TheVirginian]

86. There is far more support for projecting a Lieberman victory

Than there is for projecting anything else. My projections are based upon scientific polling. Your projections are based upon fantasy and wishful thinking.

[saltpoint]

89. Those same "scientific" polls you cite showed your boy well in the lead

not 3 months ago.

What happened to that lead?

[TheVirginian]

92. A left-wing challenger gained support among the left-wing of his party.

Explain to me how a left-wing Democrat is going to gain ground against a centrist among moderates and Independents.

[saltpoint]

95. Lamont's support is diverse. His numbers are astonishly high

against a 3-term incumbent.

There aren't that many left-wingers in most states. Ned's support is real and evidently a lot more comprehensive than you think it is.

[TheVirginian]

99. Lieberman has the support of the majority of Independents.

And unlike left-wing Democrats who are upset that Lieberman doesn't share their views, Independents and moderates do share their views with Lieberman. The base of Lamont's support is from the left-wing of the Democratic Primary. He may get some support from other places, but not enough to counter the wide-spread support that Lieberman has.

[saltpoint]

101. And not 3 months ago -- if that -- he had the support of a majority

of Democrats.

That lead is gone.

Lamont's people are resourceful and they are riding a strong national wave of support.

Lieberman is in desperate straits and he knows it.

Signatures to run as an independent because he isn't confidant enough that he'll win his own party's primary.

Yuck.

[TheVirginian]

106. Yes, and another Democrat ate up that support.

How will that left-wing Democrat in turn eat up support among Independents and moderates?

[saltpoint]

108. Connecticut's a blue state. I like a Democrat's chances on a statewide

ballot there.

[TheVirginian]

114. 50% of CT voters are Indie. I like an Independent's chances better.

[saltpoint]

117. Not me. I say the Democrat is the faster horse.

[TheVirginian]

124. That's illogical.

[saltpoint]

135. Quite a bit about politics is illogical. You're going to have to bite

on that bullet no matter what.

[TheVirginian]

139. Not when it comes to analyzing polls.

A majority of voters in Connecticut are Independent. Lieberman enjoys most of his support from Independents. That's a greater indicator of success than claiming that CT is a "blue state".

[saltpoint]

145. It's polls which determine the red and blue of red and blue states.

Here's a headline from today's on-line Sacramento BEE story (AP) on the Lieberman/Lamont poll:

http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/politics/story/3333998p-12277590c.html

[CTLawGuy]

153. yes, but do they vote?

especially in an off-year election?

[calico1]

96. I am not a "left-winger" and neither are any

of the people I know who intend to vote for Lamont and that used to vote for Lieberman.

[CTyankee]

113. Hmm, I've been reading this exchange with great interest

You seem to know a lot about voter behavior in CT. I'd like to know whether you think Ned has more support from East Haddam independents than Lieberman, and whether Lieberman has more support from Woodbridge independants than Ned. Based on your knowledge of CT voters, of course.

[TheVirginian]

115. My knowledge is based upon polls and local news.

Of course, I cede to your extensive knowledge of local politics and state demographics. However, my lack of knowledge in those areas doesn't disquality my point.

Do you believe that I am not able to comment competently on this race because I'm not from CT?

[saltpoint]

119. It hasn't happened so far. I don't understand why you're being so

stingy about Ned Lamont's accomplishments?

Lieberman isn't some just-off-the-turnip-wagon fly-by-night. He's a 3-term senator.

Lamont's numbers, on a tremendous ascent for weeks now, have tied or gone ahead of Joe.

Joe's not in a good position.

[TheVirginian]

125. He's in a great position for the GE. 24 points is nothing to scoff at.

[saltpoint]

129. No scoffers there are among those believing that polls are volatile.

And note they are volatile in more than one direction.

[TheVirginian]

132. Parading their percieved "volatility" is a scoff.

Where does Lamont get his support from? Where does Lieberman get his support from? How will Lamont pull Independents and moderates from Lieberman?

[saltpoint]

136. We will have to trust the voters of Connecticut to make their decision.

Lamont has said plainly he'll honor the winner of the August 8th primary.

Not whiney Joe.

[TheVirginian]

140. Independents don't care about that.

They're not beholden to the Democratic Party. If anything, many Independents are angry with the left-wing of the Democratic Party for trying to force thier Senator out.

[saltpoint]

143. If you have a poll citing Independents' displeasure at leftist Dems, let's

see it.

If you don't, your statement is off the mark.

[TheVirginian]

149. Its not off the mark, its an alternative theory.

Since there's no way to prove one or the other.

[CTyankee]

142. You may comment, of course

My question wasn't entirely playful. What I am saying is that we CT dems who support Ned are trying to tell you something about CT voters. We are sensing something happening. We know how a lot of these little CT towns act. So I'm not buying your point that our enthusiasm is all "wishful thinking." Knowledge of our state informs our thinking on this (For instance,I am fairly certain that Woodbridge will go for Joe in both the primary and the general, since it has a substantial Jewish population, as does West Hartford and Stamford).

We all knew that Ned's campaign was uphill, but we sensed that his time had come. It's still a fight. I am phoning for Ned tomorrow night and I'll hear more, which will make me even more informed. If he triumphs in the primary I'll work even harder for him in the general. I'm just a foot soldier but I listen well and I work hard for what I believe in. Beyond that, I cannot tell you what will be. No one can.

[CTLawGuy]

151. there are two factors:

1. Stench of "loser" effect. This is where losing an election or a primary causes people in the near future to doubt your electability or to see you as less desirable. It mostly happens in presidential primaries where there are many elections seriatim. When Dean lost Iowa, it caused his support to drop in NH and everwhere else. It's the opposite of "big mo," which of course gives a boost to people who have won prior elections.

If Lieberman loses the primary it just makes him look weak, and it makes him look like he can't win. I think people (especially indys) will take that into account psychologically come general election time.

2. Increased name ID of Lamont will cause his support among indies to increase. With the GE 4 months away, most independent aren't paying attention and are, of course, favoring candidates they know. Once Lamont starts reaching out to them, they will begin to realize this is a real race and I think many will be swayed to his side.

[calico1]

71. But the poll is taken with Lieberman still the

Democratic Senator. I think that makes a difference in most voters minds. He *is* our Senator. Should he lose the primary I think that will change. I think Lamont will get a lot more exposure and become more a "household" name in CT. Lieberman running as an Independent will not have the support of the national party anymore. Lamont will. I think that if Lamont wins the primary the polls following that will be interesting. Right now all we can tell is he is definitely gaining on Lieberman. With Lieberman not the Democratic candidate it will be interesting. I think its very premature to assume that all Independents and Republicans will vote for Lieberman as some here have declared. Its not only Democrats that are disappointed with some of the stuff he has done. And its not just "far left" Democrats that support Lamont.

[AtomicKitten]

74. I hope you are right.

I sincerely believe Lamont will prevail in the primary. I hope people come to their senses, the ones indicated in the poll I cited upthread, and hang with the winner of the Dem primary. That's the democratic thing to do. I like Lamont's ads pounding that point. I think Lieberman is systematically turning off voters and I am hopeful the trend continues towards a genuine democratic primary and not this pig-headed following of man who is clinging to his own failures.

[fordnut]

72. I hope they throw him out

[saltpoint]

105. He does remain a formidable presence on the ballot.

The problem is he seems not to be a team player.

I admire Lamont's decision to honor the Democratic voters' primary choice.

And I'm kind of appalled at Lieberman's refusal to do that.

[otohara]

84. Salazar Had to Promise to Not Switch To GOP

at the Denver convention.

[saltpoint]

110. I can see why it would come up as a discussion point after Ben

Nighthorse Campbell bolted on us.

[Zhade]

94. It's a joy to behold - the same as seeing Santorum struggle.

GO LAMONT!

(He DID gain 11 points to Lieberman's loss of 8 IN A MONTH, so it's possible he could pull this off!)

[AtomicKitten]

120. that is indeed an awesome sight to behold

I really love Lamont's nontoxic ads.

[mtnsnake]

104. It's also pretty sad what the rumor mill is doing to Lieberman

I only hope that Lieberman isn't issuing this statement because of rumors started online that he was going to run as a Republican.

I'm not any fan of his, so I'm not saying this out of sympathy for his cause, just out of disgust for what some people are trying to do to his reputation (not you, Crusoe).

[saltpoint]

109. Hi, mtnsnake. I hear you -- I don't want rumor to undo anybody,

whether they're in politics or not.

Witness John McCain's primary bid in South Carolina in 2000.

I really can't stand John McCain, but what rumor and innuendo by Karl Rove et al did to him in S. Carolina was fucking disgraceful. I'm still appalled by it, even though my politics might be well to the left of McCain.

At base he is a human and Rove's tactics were pure shitwork.

I don't want Lieberman brought down by rumor, although his campaign ought to have had the sense to handle the on-line Republican nomination rumor swiftly and more agilely than it did. That's ok. They're humans also, and for me, the point is not whether Lieberman runs in one or another party but that he won't honor the Democrats' decision.

I'm pro-primary so I honor Lamont's pronouncement that he will back Joe if Joe wins and I'm repelled by Joe's refusal to do the same. This is an old protocol. And the young upstart is honoring it and the old veteran is not.

It makes it much more unlikely that Democrats would wish Joe well, despite those early years he put in for the Civil Rights movement (invaluable...but now forgotten).

[TheVirginian]

116. "More swiftly"?

It took only four hours, which, if you know anything about a Senator's office or a campaign, is very quickly. Usually, one news cycle is a day, or 12 hours at the shortest. The blogosphere works quicker than that, no surprise, but that doesn't mean his office wasn't swift.

[saltpoint]

121. I've worked in a handful of offices.

Lieberman's people should have been on this immediately. They weren't.

It was slow and clumsy.

Not unlike Lieberman himself, frankly. He's very slow to "get" what's happening. He thought he would be the certain victor over Dick Cheney in the veep debate in 2000; he got his ass kicked there.

He also believed he would fare better in the NH primary in 2004; he got his ass kicked there, too.

Weeks later, he was out of the race.

His only entry point into public discourse, unfortunely, is when he stands in opposition to the tenets of our party. He's a grandstander.

[TheVirginian]

127. As have I.

And since the contact in Lieberman's office was a low-level staffer, I'm not surprised it took that long for Lieberman's office to release a statement. I am suprised with the audacity of the progressive blogosphere who reported a flat-out lie, and continues to make hay out of it.

[saltpoint]

130. Well I think if you polled anti-Lieberman DUers, for example, you'd

likely find strong opposition well prior to this week's rumor about the Republican party.

I thought it was handled questionably by Lieberman's campaign.

[TheVirginian]

133. A low-level staffer with no authority gave a non-answer...

So an official spokesperson could make a statement. The blog that called Lieberman's office then reported the non-answer as Lieberman "mulling" a GOP bid. How is that anything but irresponsibility on the part of the blog for reporting a lie, followed by a swift response by Lieberman's office, in a matter of hours?

[saltpoint]

138. Sounds like a poorly run office to me.

[TheVirginian]

141. What in the world are you talking about?

Someone with no authority to speak on behalf of the Senator gets a phone call with a question out of left field. The person does as they're trained and gives a non-answer so someone with authority can answer the question. How is the office poorly run?

[saltpoint]

146. Oddly, I would praise Bill Clinton for crisis and rumor management.

When he drops by to campaign for Holy Joe, maybe he can drop a few tips on how to deal with rumors.

Say what you want about Clinton, but that emergency mgmt/rumor operation he ran was top-drawer.

[TheVirginian]

150. They don't need tips on how to deal with rumors.

[mtnsnake]

118. I don't disagree with you at all, Crusoe

Joe has turned so many Democrats off in recent times, and not just left leaning Democrats but Democrats from all areas of the spectrum.

When and if Lieberman ends up biting the dust, I prefer it to be as a result of his own selfishness and not as a result of the vicious rumors started about the man online.

How's it goin with you? :hi:

[saltpoint]

126. "Pretty good. Not bad, I can't complain..

and actually, most of them politicians are about the same."

--to riff badly on a John Prine tune.

Hey there mtnsnake. I'm hanging in there. How are you doing? Are you still in shock over Bush's sterling performance at the G8 summit?

That line about the pig just stopped me in my tracks.

John Kennedy was not a perfect person, and I don't mean to pretend that he was. But goddammit, he was a GROWN-UP and he acted like one on the world stage, in his thoughts and words.

Watching Dubya in Europe this past week, and grimacing at just about everything he said or did, I found myself getting very homesick for President Kennedy.