Does Ford (D) have a chance in Tennessee?

[Bake]

I grew up in the Volunteer State back when it was Democratic. Gov. Ellington, et al. I watched the Pukes take it over culminating in KatKiller Frist. I'd love to see Ford take the Senate seat (even though he's a little too "corporate" for my tastes). Any chance it'll happen?

Bake

[AtomicKitten]

1. many of the pundits say yes for whatever that's worth.

Ford is much further right than my belief system, but I still like him. A lot.

[SteppingRazor]

2. I definitely think he can win. But his chances depend on...

who wins the GOP primary. I think if Corker wins the GOP primary, Ford is probably screwed. If Hilleary or Bryant wins, he's got a good chance. A lot of GOP pollster types point to Ford's uncle's problems as a sign that Ford will go down, but that stuff happened a while ago now, and Ford has done a good job distancing himself from it.

Tennessee and Missouri are certainly our toughest takeover attempts, but I definitely think Ford has a good chance.

[DCCyclone]

4. We're in better shape in Mizzou than Tennessee......

McCaskill has been running even with Talent for a long time; they trade leads of 1-to-3 points in the polls, with the most recent Rasmussen poll showing a dead heat at 42% apiece.

Ford has consistently trailed, albeit usually by small margins, in trial heat polling against each Gooper.

Personally I think we'll take 5 Gooper Senate seats, and Mizzou will be one of 'em. The others I think we'll get are PA; Montana; Rhode Island; and Ohio. But I think it stops there, and we end up 50-50.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Rasmussen has had Ford within 10 points of all of them recently.

I think it'll depend a lot on what happens after the primaries though.

[TheVirginian]

3. A chance? Of course. Is it likely? We'll see.

Right now, the GOP is split in a three-way primary. The front-runner of the three-way race is the moderate ex-mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker. Ex-Representatives Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary are also running, but are both more conservative (and thus are splitting the conservative vote), as well as having less resources than Corker. According to the most recent polls, Corker has a commanding lead on the primary, and is on target to win the GOP nomination.

In general election match-ups, Corker has the best advantage, with a five point lead over Ford (46%-41%), while Hilleary and Bryant are statistically tied. However, given that Tennessee is a red state, and the nature of primaries, whoever wins the GOP primary is likely to see an immeadiate bounce in the polls. So if Bob Corker wins the primary, the first polls released afterwards should show Corker with a five-to-eight point lead on Ford. If its Bryant or Hilleary, they'll probably still be in a statistical tie.

Ford's best chance is against Hilleary or Bryant, but all is not lost if its Corker. It is, however, an uphill battle. Most projection sites as Tennessee as "Leans Republican", but its hard to say until after the primary how much of a chance Ford has.

On the DSCC's list of top-tier races, its currently #6, after Rhode Island and before Arizona.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. I think he still has a hill to climb, but it's doable

He's certainly survivng in the polls, that's for sure. Check Rasmussenreports for example.