Do We Need To Win VA To Get The Senate?

[ruggerson]

DOn't get me wrong, I'd love to see Webb knock off Felix.

But is there a way to get to 51 without it happening, or is it a must win?

I see good shots at pickups in RI, MT, OH, MO, PA. Which means we need either AZ (not likely) or VA or TN.

If we lose VA and win TN, or vice versa, and hold every incumbency, we have the majority.

So, seems to me those are the two key states to this whole cycle.

[MissWaverly]

1. Glad I sent money to Webb last night

[FogerRox]

2. I think you hit the nail on the head

We need to flip 6 seats in the senate. 5 look good already.

[lastknowngood]

3. We wont get the Senate. We will lose 2 or 3 seats and there are

already 6 or 7 DINOs there that will give the the 2/3 majority to have total control. We will also lose house seats, I expect 10 to 12, the repugs can't lose they count the votes.

[ruggerson]

4. Fuck off n/t

[onenote]

6. want to make a wager on that prediction?

loser donates to DU?

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Sweep every top tier pickup opportunity, then Tennessee or Virginia

Don't kid ourselves how unlikely this is. The margin for error is basically one race. Arizona and especially Nevada too often show up on the possibility lists, ignoring that four of our seats are more vulnerable than either of those.

Hold Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey. The two most likely pickups are Pennsylvania and Montana. Ohio, Missouri and Rhode Island are tossup to slight underdog. Then you drift to Tennessee and Virginia. But that's a huge drop. For reference purposes, Ohio, Missouri and Rhode Island are generally listed at in the 45% range on the betting sites, with Tennessee and Virginia closer to 20% or less.

That's the money line equivalent of a 1 point underdog in a football game, compared to a 10 point underdog.

[rucky]

7. Ohio is not in the bag. n/t

[Celica Toyota]

8. WE can also add in Independent Sanders this time.

[TheVirginian]

9. Five races, plus one of three upsets.

You're pretty much spot-on. We need to sweep PA, MT, OH, RI, and MO. Then we need an upset in TN, AZ, or VA. Unforunately, any of those three would be considered an upset.

On top of all of that, we need to defend two seats that are virtually toss-ups: Minnesota and New Jersey. Then we have three seats that are vulnerable: Maryland, Washington, and Michigan. So on top of sweeping those five states PLUS winning an upset, we need to defend TWO vulnerable seats plus prevent an upset in another three.