What exactly do we need to take the Senate?

[Deep13]

I know about Ohio and Penna. We need to hang onto CT whoever the nominee is. What other seats do we need to pick up? Which ones of ours are facing credible opposition? Is there a realistic chance of getting the Senate or are the numbers just not there?

[SteppingRazor]

1. We need to take over six seats to take the Senate...

The most likely ones are PA, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Tennessee, in decending order of likeliness. Some optimists will put Virginia and Arizona in there as long shots, but I don't buy it.

Connecticut is not even worth losing sleep over -- whether it's Lieberman or Lamont, there's still a "D" by the name -- and even in the case of Lieberman going independent, he'll still caucus with the Dems.

While taking those six seats, we also need to hold onto all the ones we already have. Our toughest battle is New Jersey, though there are a couple other GOP longshots.

In the end, I think we'll hold onto all our seats. But I seriously doubt we'll pick up all the seats we need to take over the senate. I'm guessing we'll grab four or five.

[Deep13]

5. Suppose Lieberman goes ind. and splits the D vote.

The Rs could take CT.

I can tell you that in OH the Senate race will be tough. I think we can pull it off but it is no certain thing.

[SteppingRazor]

6. Not a chance...

In the three-way race polls, the Republican, Schlesinger, still comes in a very, very distant third, behind both Lieberman and Lamont.

[skipos]

8. Schesinger currentlygets 10 to 15% of the vote. He would need to at least

get 34% to have a chance.

[calico1]

9. The R's will not take CT. Trust me.

Schlesinger is a very weak candidate. Even the R Gov. doesn't like him. He will not win, even in a 3 way race. Either Lamont or Lieberman will be our Senator. I'm hoping Lamont but it will definitely be one of those two.

[BOSSHOG]

2. I'm afraid I won't be able to contribute much

trent lott is up for reelection and the religiously insane in Mississippi would give him a pass on any potential pitfalls. The democratic nominee has not answered the three emails I sent him. I'm just offering him help as a foot soldier and maybe a few bucks; I mean why should he want to contact me? Unless there is a cosmic reversal of fortune Mississippi's senate seat will have a gop butt in it after the election. I will, however, proudly cast my vote against trent lott.

I am sending 10 bucks a month to the DSCC in hopes that santorum goes down in flames. If so, I'll consider that a fine investment.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Here is my guess:

1,000,000 determined nonviolent ordinary heros camped out in DC until the regime collapses.

[femmocrat]

4. Check out Harold Ford in TN. I think he has a shot at it ,although

he could face a tough race in the fall. It is TN afterall. Also, Chafee in RI is showing some vulnerability this week.

[skipos]

7. IMO....

PA, MT are very very likely pick ups. Burns and Santorum are never ahead in any polls.
MO, OH, RI are toss ups. If Laffey wins the Repub nomination, RI is ours for sure.
VA, TN are possible but very difficult. Webb and Ford have never been ahead in any polls I have seen.

WA and NJ are possible Repub pickups. Hopefully we don't get Naderized in WA.

[rucky]

10. Seriously organized poll-watching.

the Ohio Democratic party is asleep at the wheel. Recruiting poll-watchers should've started by now. I called my local party contact, and he referred me back to Blackwell's office!

Edit to include voter registration efforts - and verification - that should've started a few months ago.

[TheVirginian]

11. There's currently three tiers.

The top tier are the most vulnerable seats, considered either toss-ups or pick-ups. The GOP has five seats there, compared to two for us. After that is the second-tier, which are races where a pick-up is possible, but considered to be a long-shot. There are three GOP seats in this category, and three Democratic seats. The rest of the races are non-factors, as there's no chance of a pick-up or switching of party.

Vulnerable GOP:
PA: Santorum vs. Casey
MT: Burns vs. Tester
OH: DeWine vs. Brown
MO: Talent vs. McCaskill
RI: Chafee vs. Whitehouse

Vulnerable Dem:
NJ: Menendez vs. Kean
MN: Klobuchar vs. Kennedy (Open Seat)

Second-Tier GOP:
TN: Corker/Bryant/Hilleary vs. Ford (Open Seat)
AZ: Kyl vs. Pederson
VA: Webb vs. Allen

Second-Tier Dem:
WA: Cantwell vs. McGavick
MD: Cardin/Mfume vs. Steele (Open Seat)
MI: Stabenow vs. Bouchard

Third-Tier (Non-competitive races):
CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, ME, MA, MS, NE, NV, NM, NY, ND, TX, UT, VT, WV, WI, WY.

Here's how the breakdown works: In order to take the Senate, we need to pick up six seats and lose none. That means we need to sweep the entire top-tier, taking all five vulnerable GOP seats and keeping both of ours. If we win those seven elections, we then need an upset in either TN, AZ, or VA, while preventing an upset in WA, MD, or MI. If we lose NJ or MN, we need all five seats plus two upsets. If we lose both NJ and MN, we need all five seats plus a sweep of the second-tier as well.

Some people don't consider the fact that a handful of our seats are vulnerable as well. If we lose MN or NJ, that's essentially the ballgame, because I can't see TN, AZ, and VA being pickups. We don't need just six races to go our way, we need eleven elections to go our way, with a heavy emphasis on NJ and MN.

As far as my current predictions go, I don't think we'll take the Senate. I think we'll pick up three or four seats, though I think New Jersey is in real danger.

[Name removed]

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[Awsi Dooger]

13. Realistically, we need two very good cycles

See TheVirginian's post. As he says, it's more a case of needing to go 11-0 than 6-0. I have a spreadsheet where I tinker with the numbers and it spits out basically a 1 in 20 chance of retaking the senate. Of course, that's somewhat misleading since a wave of preference one way or another can sweep many states with it. These aren't entirely independent events in that regard.

I would be thrilled with +3 or better.