Polls, exit polls, and 'comebacks' .........

[Stinky The Clown]

Let me start with a preamble: I believe that there have been planned, conspiratorial, centrally orchestrated efforts to cheat the voters out of their rightful choices since at least 2000, and maybe even before then. I do not think all of them are machine related. I think that some of them have also been old fashioned voter disenfranchisement. I'd like to think my views on this are reality based, not the result of a foil hat.

That said, what should we be doing if we see the same crap in the upcoming elections? Right now, for example, both Brown and Strickland hold pretty substantial leads over DeWine and Blackwell. What happens if Kenny gets named governor, even when these polling numbers hold right up to election day .... or even if they tighten a bit (I think they will)?

Is the Democratic Party doing anything? I know there's now open talk about it. I know that several party-related organizations have 'policy statements' posted on their web sites. I know that leading elected Dems - many with PACs supporting 06 candidates - are speaking out about the issue.

My fear is that all of this is a case of too little too late. My fear is that it will take not a majority of votes for a Dem to win, but rather a **super majority** of votes for a Dem to win. Close isn't good enough. We have to soundly trounce them. By huge pluralities.

Please give this some thought before answering: What do *you* think we should do if once again the elections get stolen? Platitudes and terse, drive-by answers won't be helpful to this discussion. Neither will a discussion of what your favorite Dem is doing or saying. This is NOT a person-specific thread and 'my guy' answers are unwelcome and off topic. Concrete, strategic answers are what's being sought in this thread.

[EFerrari]

1. Why wait that long? We fight them now, while they're still

building the rigging infrastructure.

There are law suits all over the country NOW.

This probably can't be done by a political party. It needs to be done by voters.

I don't know if that is helpful in any way.

[Stinky The Clown]

2. I don't disagree with you, but ......

... when you say "It needs to be done by voters." we need to recognize that many deeply concerned individuals everywhere are either too timid or lack sufficient knowledge to make any difference whatsoever. The fact is, anything that gets done needs to involve overhwelming numbers and central control. Mere 'concern' on the part of individual voters results in nothng but voters with individual headaches.

Again, I'm not at all disagreeing with you.

[EFerrari]

4. I have good news. There are election reform groups

all over the country now. We have a nascent infrastructure that we didn't have in 2004.

People in those groups have been working hard to make information consumable and actions user friendly.

There's a long way to go, but we're light years from where we were on 11/02/04. And there's room for every kind of skill in this movement. :)

[blm]

7. Exactly - our numbers have quadrupled since the months before 2004.

So few people were willing to even believe machine fraud was possible back then.

Now, we actually have a handful of nationally known Dem leaders who believe the machines get tampered with, and at least ONE news program willing to focus on vulnerable voting machines as a key story - - big advancement for us with more to come.

[EFerrari]

11. I imagine that there are a LOT of people like my family

that worked their remotes off 2002-2004 for a candidate that have now redirected their energies.

This is one of the most truly organic movements I've seen in my lifetime. Viet Nam, feminism and now election reform. Maybe we got it exactly backwards. :silly:

[MissWaverly]

5. can we the people forget the recount crap and sue

Blackwell wants to be governor so he can shove 2004 under the rug, hopefully forever. Recounts
don't work against him, I donated $200.00 to a "recount" that didn't happen. Okay, a small number of individuals were indicted, big whoop. What about a civil lawsuit for negligence?
The Justice Department for a criminal investigation is not going to work, look at Plame.

[EFerrari]

8. Exactly. n/t

[wakeme2008]

3. IMHO Kennedy needs to get Dean onboard...

Every state needs an active voice when they see the types of things that were done in Ohio happen in their state. PPL are watching Ohio and Flordia but there are IMHO 48 other states that need to be watched.

[EFerrari]

9. California. Did I mention, they're groping CALIFORNIA?

Just in case someone missed it, CALIFORNIA.

54 electoral votes.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Brown does not hold a substantial lead over DeWine

I see that repeated here far too often. It's like TIA's strategy; embracing only the most favorable polls toward Democrats and including them in his election models so he could scream fraud if the result differed. If a firm had several polls he didn't like, he dismissed that firm as biased.

That race is very close. In fact, if you go to Brown's own website today you'll find an article listing Brown and DeWine "running neck and neck in the polls." There was a Survey USA poll giving Brown a 48-39 lead, but also the most recent Rasmussen poll listing DeWine ahead 46-39. The rolling poll average is near even.

Rasmussen is using Democrats with a +3.3 party ID edge this year in his methodology. That's higher than most pundits project so dismissing him as tilting right doesn't work, IMO. Looks like he's trying to gauge the nation year to year and adjust accordingly. The pollsters who got it right in '04, including Rasmussen, estimated party ID close to even. On DU we were claiming the polls were off if they did not provide at least a 2 or 3 point party ID edge.

The sites listing odds or offering wagering have DeWine a slight favorite.

On edit: I saw the Post Dispatch poll. That's excellent news but I stick to my opinion this race is dead even. I checked the odds and DeWine remains a small favorite. No one in that field overreacts when an incumbent is slightly behind, or receiving mixed poll results this early in a race.

[EFerrari]

12. I love the way you dismiss TIA, especially when every serious

work that came AFTER him has proved him RIGHT.

:rofl:

[Stinky The Clown]

13. This is a side topic that does not add to the discussion

Please start your own thread if you want to pursue this.

Thanks.

[EFerrari]

10. I think this isn't the direction you were looking for.

I didn't mean to hijack the thread. :(

[Awsi Dooger]

14. One caution about that Post Dispatch poll

It's a mail poll, not a RDD poll. They obscure that info late in the article.