Washington Post: 8 Key Issues in the '06 Battle for Congress

[DeepModem Mom]

Eight Issues That Will Shape the 2006 Elections
Which party will control Congress?



Less than four months before the mid-term elections, there is one question that is preoccupying candidates around the country: How big will the Republican losses be in November?

History suggests, and operatives in both parties agree, that Republicans are virtually certain to lose ground. The party that holds the White House almost always loses House seats in the midterm elections held in the sixth year of a two-term presidency. Only once in the past century has that pattern not held.

There are no signs this year will be an aberration. President Bush is suffering from low approval ratings and there is widespread discontent over the war in Iraq. Polls likewise show frustration with the Republican majority in Congress and an increased willingness to give Democrats the leadership reins.

No one can predict whether 2006 will be one of those seismic years in which control of Congress switches parties. But small shifts could have large consequences. If Democrats in the House gain 15 seats -- a number that analysts in both parties say is within reach -- Republicans will relinquish power there for the first time since 1994. In the Senate, Democrats need to gain six seats to take control -- a more remote prospect, but by most estimates a plausible one....

THE 8 KEY ISSUES:

1. HOW BIG A PROBLEM IS BUSH FOR THE GOP?
2. WILL THE CORRUPTION ISSUE GO NATIONAL?
3. WILL POCKETBOOK CONCERNS MOVE VOTERS?
4. WILL THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE SAVE REPUBLICANS?
5. WILL THE IRAQ WAR COME HOME IN NOVEMBER?
6. CAN REPUBLICANS WIN IN THE NORTHEAST?
7. CAN DEMOCRATS COMPETE IN THE UPPER SOUTH?
8. WHAT STATE AND DISTRICT BALLOT ISSUES WILL DRIVE VOTERS TO THE POLLS?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/bellwether/index.htm

[bleever]

1. A good storyline is critical to an election theft.

These are key questions.

In the 2004 election, there was a narrative to deal with all these questions.

"Too close to call" was key among them, until the story was "moral values" and "national security" saving the day for the pretzeldent.

Last time, people were willing to swallow the fact that a president with below 50% approval could be re-elected, despite what history had to say.

We must be on top of the narrative, and on top of the Corporate Media's slant on it, in order to weaken it.

That won't prevent election theft, but it needs to be in our arsenal.

[EST]

2. Balz should be ashamed.

This has to be one of the most poorly thought out and poorly written pieces of space filler I've seen in a while. Must have been in a terrible hurry.

[longship]

3. DC Insider Cocktail Party Issue List

This article is a bunch of hooey. The list doesn't seem to be a list of voter issues as much as it is a list of items that DC Insiders like to talk about at cocktail parties. How many people go into the voting booth worrying about "Can Republicans win in the Northeast?" or "Can Democrats compete in the Upper South?" I'd bet none of them.

Instead, I think voters concentrate on two types of issues. First, the big issues that effect the nation as a whole but reflect on the voter's situation. Second, the local issues which have confluence in the national sphere. (Remember Tip O'Neill--all politics is local.)

Here's my list of the top eight.

• Iraq-This has got to be the top issue.
  
• Peace in the Middle East-The Israel/Palestinian business is not going very well.
  
• Economics-Rampant national debt and huge give-aways to the wealthy are beginning to hurt the average voter.
  
• Another season of hurricanes like last year will have a disproportional negative impact for the Republicans.
  
• The Stem-Cell veto will resonate with swing voters among others.
  
• Record high temperatures throughout the summer will punctuate ChimpCo's lunatic attitude toward global warming.
  
• Constitutional rights and in particular the neocon's domestic spying and stance on gay rights.
  
• Any further news on the neocon corruption front will open already festering wounds.
  

Then there's some wildcards which may catapult a Democratic sweep of the election.

• Another debacle like Katrina, either a natural disaster or otherwise.
  
• A total breakdown in Iraq.
  
• Breakout of general warfare in the Middle East.
  
• Any large global warming related event.
  
• Almost anything else.
  

The voters are ripe for a sea change. They are almost begging for an excuse to go into the voting booth and pull the lever with the big "D" next to it. One can smell it in the political atmosphere which is fouled by the stench of Repug lies and incompetence. If the Democrats don't give the people a reason, maybe events will do so.

In fact, my version of the DC Insider Cocktail Party list would include a question "Will scaredy-cat Democrats manage to again pull defeat out of the jaws of victory?"

on edit: spelling, grammar

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Excellent post, longship. Thanks! nt

[Clark2008]

5. I know! I'm stilly trying to figure out what "the upper South" is.

I'm in Tennessee - our Senate race is going to be a barn-burner. Am I part of the "upper South?"

Because, if I am, it's the first I've ever heard of it.

Sounds like the Republicans may start losing some allegedly "red" states and they've made up a new region in the country so they can say they still have the "deep" South. Problem is, the South nearly all voted for Clinton and that isn't ancient history, so this "the South is red" crap is just a recent phenom.