Democrats Strong Across the Board in OHIO!

[oberliner]

Strickland far ahead, early poll indicates
Democrat strong across board; Brown maintains 8-point edge over DeWine in Senate race

Democrat Ted Strickland has surged to a surprising lead of 20 percentage points in the first Dispatch Poll on Ohio’s Nov. 7 race for governor.

Meanwhile, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds an 8-point edge in his bid to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Mike DeWine

<snip>

Favorite quote from the article:

But Justen-Green, 32, whose husband is still in Iraq, is less certain about the Senate race. She said she is leaning toward Brown, a Democratic congressman from Avon, because "this country needs something other than Republicans right now."

http://www.dispatch.com/?story=dispatch/2006/07/23/20060723-A1-01.html

[Doctor_J]

1. Whitewell will be deciding who gets to vote, and whose votes

get counted. Polls mean nothing when the fraud and corruption are so rampant and blatant.

[Reckon]

2. This is great news.

"Strickland’s 47-to-27 advantage over GOP rival J. Kenneth Blackwell is fueled by a more than 3-to-1 lead among independent voters"

Take that ya CROOK!

[JesterCS]

3. All I know is

If Blackwell wins.. I will drive my happy ass to Columbus, and punch him in the mouth

[Stevepol]

4. Diebold strong across the board in OHIO!

[Zynx]

5. I'm sorry, but if Strickland leads by 20 pts and loses, that would be the

most obvious vote fraud in history.

[Toots]

6. So........ what will anyone do about it??

You think they give one whit how obvious it is.. They have complete control and can stop any real investigations. In fact I seem to recall they just passed a law there making it virtually illegal to contest an election. :shrug: when Crooks have complete control everything will be crooked.

[OzarkDem]

8. This is Ohio, anything can happen

the news media in this state would be perfectly capable of covering it up.

[Doctor_J]

10. What's your point?

"The most obvious vote fraud in history" won't prevent Whitewell from taking office.

[Zynx]

15. Courts can nullify elections.

[oberliner]

9. gee

Thanks for this comment.

All of the people who are working so hard campaigning for Democrats in Ohio really appreciate it.

[OzarkDem]

7. Dems need to work harder to get women voters back

They've lost their edge and are struggling to find their message again with women voters. Shouldn't have happened and I hope its fixed soon.

Women are their largest constituency. The Democratic Party IS women voters.

[lonehalf]

11. Whose poll?

Is this an inside poll by the Democrats or just one of those that are soooo wrong most of the time?

I wish people with inside knowledge of our own polls would post them on DU.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. It was a mail-in poll and I'd be very careful about accepting the numbers

Notice this link, of the breakdown within the governors race: http://www.dispatch.com/?story=dispatch/2006/07/23/20060723-A4-01.html

I sampled the numbers compared to past Ohio elections and most of it is representative in terms of religious breakdown, income, etc. Blacks are undersampled by a large margin, which should be good news. It's only 99 blacks among the 1654 in the sample, roughly 6%. Black voters typically make up about 10% in Ohio.

However, very loyal Democrats appear to be significantly oversampled in this poll. Notice the 81-2 breakdown in terms of Democrats supporting Strickland. Likewise, the responding independents appear to be more left leaning than typical, with a 47-14 preference to Strickland. In reference, Bush got 9% of the Democratic vote in Ohio 2004, and 40% among independents. Blackwell won't get those numbers but I'd love to wager it is closer to the average, perhaps slightly higher than the average, of the two figures, and not the low extreme this poll suggests.

There are 650 Democrats and 618 Republicans in this poll. That's not the standard Ohio breakdown. In '04 it was 40% Republicans and 35% Democrats by party ID. This year we might get even party ID in Ohio, or very close to that.

In addition, the Southwest section of Ohio, a GOP stronghold, is under represented with less than 1/8 of the sample. I wish they would break that down with a map so I could tell where they cut off Southwest/Southeast, etc. The Southeast has only 76 voters in the poll and is heavy blue in this sample, in fact a higher percentage than any other region at 63-20. That doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, based on my perception of Ohio demographics. Although I realize Strickland is from rural Southeast Ohio.

Since these are the same people who voted in the senate poll, I think we can conclude that +8 toward Brown is probably too high also.

[OzarkDem]

13. Disagree, Brown was ahead by larger margin a few weeks ago

in the Survey USA poll June 13(of likely voters), he was 9 pts ahead and on June 23, Zogby had him ahead by 12 points (46.7 to 34%)

The liberal, non-DLC is waging a very good race against an established so-called "moderate" GOP candidate. I'm sure that hurts the DLC, but there's no getting around it. Sherrod doesn't need them to win.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. I have more faith in that Survey USA poll than this one

The breakdown in many areas was much more sensible. They had party ID even, which is where I suggested it should be in the previous post. There are 9% blacks in the sample, not 6% like the Dispatch poll. DeWine receives 9% of the Democratic vote and Blackwell gets 6%, which is again more real world than that 2% in the mail-in poll.

My only question is the findings in regard to preference. Survey USA lists Brown ahead among males and among whites. That doesn't mean he leads among white males, but it implies the black males are enough to give Brown an overall edge among men, and the big advantage among white females is enough to give Brown the overall lead among whites.

Both would be extraordinary, to lead in those categories. If it holds up at the polls then Brown is a decisive winner. But I've learned to be skeptical about polls indicating a deviation from the norm in sub catregories, especially in a close race and in a so-called red state.