The AJC analysis looked at voter turnout in DeKalb, where most 4th District voters live. The AJC also compared Tuesday's election returns in 120 DeKalb precincts with the results of McKinney's 2002 race, which she lost to Denise Majette. (The Georgia Legislature drew new congressional lines in 2005, so only 120 precincts were the same in 2006 as in 2002.)
The analysis found:
•This year, 49 percent fewer voters cast ballots for McKinney than in 2002. That indicates those voters either did not cast ballots Tuesday, or voted for another candidate.
•Overall turnout was significantly lower this year than in 2002. Then, 47 percent of 4th District voters who live in DeKalb went to the polls; this year only 26 percent cast ballots.
•Support for McKinney dropped by an average of 4.5 percentage points across the 120 precincts. She experienced the biggest decline in south DeKalb precincts. In the precincts where McKinney was strongest in 2002, she still won majorities this year but by a lower percentage.
•Johnson had the strongest support in predominantly white north DeKalb, but he received a lower percentage of the vote in many of those precincts than Majette did in 2002. The third opponent, Coyne, received 10 to 20 percent of the vote in many of those precincts.
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