Democratic primary/caucus proposed schedule change: who benefits?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
07/24/2006
And the Winners Are: Clinton, Edwards and Nevada

....Under the proposed schedule, Iowa's caucuses will still lead off the nomination fight on Jan. 14, 2008. Nevada will then follow with a caucus on Jan. 19. New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary is scheduled for Jan. 22, followed one week later by a primary in South Carolina....

***

WINNERS

JOHN EDWARDS: No single candidate benefited more from the addition of Nevada and South Carolina to the calendar than Edwards, the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee and former senator from North Carolina. Edwards is a South Carolina native and won the state's primary in 2004. Harold Ickes, a member of the Rules and Bylaws Committee and a confidant of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, protested the inclusion of South Carolina because it would be a "walkover" for Edwards. In Nevada, Edwards enjoys a strong relationship with perhaps the most influential union in the state -- UNITE Here, which represents hotel and service workers. Right now Edwards can claim strong backing in three of the four early states (Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina) -- a claim few other hopefuls can make.

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: The prospect of four states voting in a 15-day period makes Sen. Clinton's financial and organizational advantages all the more important. Clinton should begin with 2007 with between $10 million and $15 million in the bank and has the capacity to raise double what any of her competitors will be able to bring in. That kind of financial advantage will allow her to play simultaneously in all four states, both on television and on the ground with a full complement of staff. If, as expected, the nominee will be decided by Jan. 30, 2008, Clinton remains the strongest bet.

HARRY REID: Most people in the know expected Nevada to get the caucus, but the Senate minority leader still deserves credit for making it happen. Reid spent most of the day Friday working the phones and meeting one-on-one with members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee. He also deployed a lobbying team that consisted of chief of staff Susan McCue, state director Rebecca Lambe Jolley, senior advisor Darrel Thomson and press aide Jon Summers. Nevada's victory means that Reid will be relentlessly courted by every 2008 contender for his endorsement. He'll be at the center of the melee -- just how he likes it.

"CHANGE TO WIN" UNIONS: The seven unions that splintered from the AFL-CIO to form the Change to Win coalition dominate the organized labor world in Nevada. The largest and most influential labor group in Las Vegas is the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 -- a member of UNITE Here. Win their backing and a candidate has a built-in force of grassroots activists. "In Nevada, workers with a strong union movement have made work pay again," said Change to Win president Anna Burger. "Now their voices and votes can't be ignored."...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[Lefty48197]

1. Hispanic voters

The population of Hispanic-Americans has been growing steadily every year in most of the country, but not so much in the early voting states. Nevada has a large Hispanic-American population, so it will be an opportunity for their voices to be heard early. Bill Richardson could possibly win Nevada, giving early strength to his candidacy (should he choose to run).

[DeepModem Mom]

2. You're right, Lefty! nt