Breaking WSJ/Zogby Poll: Ford Slightly Ahead Of Corker In TN!!

[ruggerson]

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_89773.asp

July 24, 2006

Harold Ford Campaign Says Poll Gives Lead Over Corker
posted July 24, 2006

A new poll released Monday by Zogby Interactive shows U.S. Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr. opening a lead over Republican Bob Corker, the Ford campaign said.

Ford leads Corker 43.6% to 42.5% in the poll results, published on the Wall Street Journal website.

One month ago, the same poll showed Corker with a 1-point lead, 42.4 to 41.4 percent, and two months ago, Corker’s lead was four points at 43-39, Ford officials said.

"Voters are responding to Harold Ford Jr.'s call for a new generation of leadership to reach across party lines and get things done," said Ford campaign senior advisor Michael Powell. “On the other hand, the more Tennessee voters see of Bob Corker's untruthful advertising, the more they realize he is more of the same. And you can’t have change with more of the same.”

(more)

[ruggerson]

1. This is the sixth seat

If we snag OH, MO, PA, MT and RI, and retain all the current seats, this puts us over the top.

51 HERE WE COME!

[longship]

9. OH, MO, PA, and MT are more certain.

RI is still iffy, as is TN. Those numbers are still too close for my comfort.

Remember, we need more because of the Diebold factor.
In RI with a Dem as Secy of State, that shouldn't be an issue.
But in TN, I'd worry about shenanigans.

Support Ford!!!!

[LynneSin]

16. Ohio is never a certainity with Blackwell and Diebold

I'd rather put that in the "R" column and be amazingly suprised in November

[Clark2008]

22. We don't have Diebold.

We have Hart, which isn't great, but it's better than Diebold.

Plus - there's paper options with Hart AND a self-contained unit, that DOES NOT connect to any external network.

[skipos]

2. This is the most optimistic poll I have seen for him.

I'd love to see some other polls with this trend.

[CTLawGuy]

3. Go Harry

we need that seat!

[saltpoint]

4. If Tennessee were to flip blue in this Senate race we stand a very good

chance at taking the Senate.

And I got no problem with us takin' the Senate.

[ruggerson]

5. Only one I'm worried about is NJ

we have to hold NJ.

[saltpoint]

6. You're right. Menendez needs all our good wishes and support.

Agree completely -- NJ must hold.

[mconvente]

20. NJ should be good

I don't know why people are supporting Menendez? I suppose the Corzine budget has hurt the Dems standing in the state, but I'm sure that once people realize how close Kean, Jr. is to Bush, then they will vote for Menendez. I, along with many other people, will be working hard down at Rutgers this first semester to ensure a win for Menendez!

[saltpoint]

47. I appreciate your putting in the time and good will for Menendez,

mconvente.

Thank you for that. :dem:

[Catchawave]

14. Virginia?

George.Felix.Allen. must go!

http://www.webbforsenate.com/

[osaMABUSh]

39. Funny one about George Allen

I was in Winchester, VA this May attending the Apple Blossom parade and George Allen rides by on a horse. The Senator barely got noticed by his constituents until his horse starting running backward and then the chuckles let loose and poor George hadn't a clue what to do about it. Hopefully, this is a metaphor of his re-election run.

[Bumblebee]

26. Cantwell in WA is well under 50% too and the GOP guy is catching up.

Much of it is because of her stand on Iraq, and I know some WA people on the list do not want to support her -- but the price is too high. McGavick is a fairly smooth politician and can be construed as "moderate," which he, of course, is not, so if enough people sit on their hands in this race, WA could go back to a split representation in the Senate, esp. since the eastern part is still pretty red, last I checked. Putting aside our very justifiable feelings for Cantwell, this would be most unfortunate. She may be a DINO but we need her to retake the Senate.

Washington Times is definitely excited about this race. See:

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060717-105738-3354r.htm

[Hippo_Tron]

45. I stopped worrying after I saw Menendez debate Kean

If you didn't happen to catch it, let me give you an idea of Kean's performance. He did worse than Bush did in any of the '04 debates but not quite as bad as Dan Quayle did in the VP debate against Lloyd Bensten. Basically Menendez owned him, there just wasn't a "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy" moment.

The reason that Menendez isn't ahead by more is because right now is because NJ is frustrated with Corzine and McGreevey and because he hasn't ever been elected statewide. But Menendez is an extremely skilled politician and he doesn't take any shit. Come November I am confident that New Jersey will realize that Kean has nothing going for him except that his daddy was Governor.

[David Dunham]

7. Guys: the Reps will get a new moderate candidate in CT who could win

Politicalwire.com reports tonight that the Reps in CT are pushing to get a new moderate US Senate in CT who could win if the Dem voted is divided between Lamont and Lieberman in the general election. We could easily lose that seat.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. I'm wondering if Shays will jump in

[Stuckinthebush]

15. Joe won't do that

Bill made sure of it when he gave him his endorsement. I know that Joe mentioned an independent run if he loses the primary, but it was in the heat of battle and his emotions were running high. The big dog sat down with him and told him what's what about that nonsense. It won't happen.

[Bucky]

41. I hope you're right. You got a source for that, or is it just street buzz?

Not to be skeptical. I mean, it sounds like Clinton to do that. But then, one wonders how much blass Mrs Clinton's husband pulls with Lieberman. If Lieberman loses the primary by a hair, I can see him going for broke. I agree he'd never ever ever join the Republican party. People who call him a DINO don't know him. But he is the kind of self-bloated iconoclast who thinks he just can't be wrong ever. Since there's no way in hell any Republican is gonna take this seat I don't see why Lieberman wouldn't run as an independent--just like he said he would. I think he's a man of his word and he doesn't make public statements lightly.

[DCCyclone]

55. No they won't......

Schlesinger has been pilloried publicly by Jodi Rell herself and still refuses to step down. And the rules require the nominee to step down voluntarily before anyone can replace him.

[samsingh]

10. hope it keeps up

[TheVirginian]

11. Mason-Dixon has Corker with a 13-point lead.

[Clark2008]

24. Mason Dixon?

Mason-Dixon vs. Zogby???

I think I'll go with the more reputable - Zogby.

[TheVirginian]

31. Why is Zogby considered more reputable?

Because it produces results you like better?

[Clark2008]

33. Ooohhhh.. I was waiting for you to ask!

While the recent Mason Dixon poll shows Republican Bob Corker with a wide lead in the primary and going into the general, Mason Dixon’s record on key races in Tennessee is abysmal:

Mason Dixon Poll: ELECTION 1986, Tennessee

Question: If the general election for governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Winfield Dunn or Democrat Ned Ray McWherter?
Source: Nashville Banner (as conducted by Mason-Dixon)
Date: Jul. 14, 1986

Results:
Winfield Dunn 45.2%
Ned McWherter 36.3%
Neither 3.5%
Don't know 15%

Election Day Results: 1986 TN Governor (actual):
Ned R. McWherter (D) 54%
Winfield Dunn (R) 46%

Mason Dixon Poll: ELECTION 1994, Tennessee

Question: If the 1994 election for Tennessee's US Senate seat "B" were held today, whom would you vote for if the candidates were Jim Cooper, the Democrat, and Fred Thompson, the Republican?
Source: Mason-Dixon Tennessee Poll
Date: Jul. 1994

Results:
Cooper 45%
Thompson 33%
Undecided 22%

Election Day Results: 1994 US Senate
Jim Cooper (D) 39%
Fred Thompson (R) 61%

Mason Dixon Poll: ELECTION 1994, Tennessee

Question: If the 1994 election for Tennessee's US Senate seat "A" were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Jim Sasser, the Democrat, Bill Frist, the Republican, and John Jay Hooker, an Independent Source: Mason-Dixon Tennessee PollDate: Jul. 1994

Election Day Results:
Sasser 53%
Frist 29%
Hooker 2%
Undecided 16%

Election Day Results 1994 US Senate
Jim Sasser (D) 42%
Bill Frist (R) 56%


So - there you go. Their record in Tennessee SUCKS big ones - at least in July, it does.

[TheVirginian]

34. Every pollster has been inaccurate in quote "key" races

Any pollster that has been around for longer than a year has been inaccurate. Why? Because there's no such thing as sound pre-election polling. Different pollsters use different methodologies and come up with different results. Zogby has certainly been off a comperable number of times.

And furthermore, numbers change from July to November. Those numbers might have most accurately represented the electorate's mindset in July of 1994, then something happened in the next four months (when most campaigning takes place), and the numbers shifted. Its a very common occurance.

Finally, pulling out 12-year old numbers is a bit much. Mason Dixon has 12 years more experience from the examples you gave.

I'm not arguing that Mason Dixon is more repudible than Zogby. I'm arguing that, by and large, most of the major pollsters are no more repudible than one another, and the best way to gauge a race is to look at all of the polling, instead of just one.

For this reason, I get frustrated when people say "Jim Webb is only five points behind Allen!", because only one poll has shown that, while three other polls have him down 8, 10, and 17 points. One poll shows Ford up on Corker, but the last three polls done for this race show Corker with a 4, 6, and 12 point lead.

[Clark2008]

36. I get frustrated with your negatism

But, that doesn't stop you from posting, does it?

The point is that the race is neck and neck. It's always been neck and neck. And will be neck and neck.

[TheVirginian]

38. Its not negativism, its reality. I get frustrated...

with people who stick their heads in the sand. The same shit happens everytime Rasmussen releases a poll:

"Oh, Rasmussen is biased towards Republicans! Add AT LEAST ten points to the poll, that's where the race really is!"

Nobody on this board wants to accept the fact that we're not going to win every Senate race. While I understand the value of fantasizing about a Senate majority, the truth of the matter is that its not likely to happen.

If Rasmussen puts a Republican up by five points, then people like Zogby better. If Zogby puts a Republican up by ten points, then people like Strategic Vision better. If Strategic Vision puts a Republican up by twelve points, then people like Quinnipiac better. If Quinnipiac puts a Republican up by fifteen points, then people like Rasmussen better. Its a constant and continuing cycle of pure denial, all under the false label of "optomism". Its not optomism. Its refusal of reality.

I understand that we have an outside chance of taking over the Senate. I'm optomistic for our gains, even with the understanding that its not likely. I'm able to be truly optomistic because I have an understanding of each race based in reality--reality as determined by looking at all the availible polls, and not just the ones I want to believe.

If people really want to act this way when it comes to elections, then you can easily hire a pollster and they can give you back whatever numbers you're looking for. But all you're doing is setting yourself up for disappointment in November when you lose. Or even worse, send you on some wild goose chase looking for a Republican conspiracy to explain why the polls that looked so good the week before the election didn't pan out.

[Clark2008]

43. I never said either poll was biased.

What I SHOWED was that Mason-Dixon sucks in Tennessee in July.

I'm not so blind that I think it's a rout for Ford.

What I DO think this thread was/is about is an optimism that spurs people to work their asses off.

Reality surrounds us. What we need here is to get the lead out - and an optimistic poll does that. Don't you think every last one of us in the reddish-purplish states KNOW that we're in for disappointment? DUH. We're not stupid. We're spurring the troops.

Geesch. We're NOT stupid.

[TheVirginian]

49. I never said you were stupid, and I never said the polls were biased.

But I mention a different poll that has a radically different result, and you pounce on the opportunity to dispell that poll while embracing Zogby's polling. I embrace neither; I instead look at both, in addition to the other polling done on the race, and come up with a sense of how the election is going. And regardless of one outlier, the election is going in the GOP favor. What does that do to me? It makes me 1) more prepared for reality, and 2) makes me more prepared for how to support Ford, and how to beat the GOP. I think better information makes us better prepared, instead of deluding ourselves into fantastical irrelevency.

[ruggerson]

42. reputable

r. e. p. u. t. a. b. l. e.

:9

[snowbear]

54. Virginian... whose side are you on anyway?

Hot damn!

You don't like it when someone says Harold Ford, Jr. is beating the Thugs..

You question the poll showing Nelson with a wide lead over Cruella..

You get ticked when someone says Webb is only 5 points behind Allen..

And I won't even touch the Connecticut race with a '10 foot pole.


You wid us or you 'gin us?

[TheVirginian]

56. I didn't question the Florida poll.

Harris will be lucky to get 33% of the vote in Florida. Bill Nelson is cruising to re-election, a huge coup for a vulnerable incumbent in a red state. I questioned the relevency of an Internet poll, that only represents the people who respond to it, with no guarantee that they're registered to vote, or even live in Florida.

But you mistake my outlook on races for my preference on races. I am a Democrat, and I want Democrats to win, but beyond that, I am a student of politics, and I enjoy objectively looking at these races. Zogby released a poll two days ago that shows Ford with a one point lead over Corker. Rasmussen released a poll today that shows Corker with a 13 point lead. Two polls done in the last month have also given Corker a wide lead over Ford. These suggest to me that the Zogby poll is an outlier.

The problem comes not now, but four months from now, if Bob Corker is elected Senator from Tennessee. People on these boards will start countless threads and make countless posts about how Ford was beating Corker according to pre-election polling, and all of a sudden Corker won. It must be a set-up, they'll conclude. It must be vote tampering or voting fraud or a host of other excuses that ignores the big problem.

I think every election is a useful tool in building a party. I think wins make us stronger by giving us the opportunity to be in office, and losses make us stronger by giving us the opportunity to evaluate where we stand, evaluate where the public stands, and figure out what the disparity is. Ever since 2000, the overwhelming chorus on this board, and other places on the netroots, has been to ignore the second part. If we lose an election, its someone else's fault. This means that there's no re-evaluation, there's no lessons learned, there's no growth. I think this is stagnating the party, and will ultimately cause us to lose more elections, which will cause people to come up with more excuses, thus continuing the cycle.

The reason I get frustrated is because I look at polling data everyday. Competitive races like Tennesee, Ohio, Virginia, Washington, etc., get about five polls released on them a month. Yet on this board, they're only reported if it shows good news for the Democratic candidate. When I post a poll that shows the Democrat losing, its either ignored, derided as biased, or I get posts like yours, questioning my loyalty.

Where is Virginia, you may ask? The last four polls show Allen with a lead of 5 points, 8 points, 10 points, and 17 points. I don't know which one is most accurate, but the best way of evaluating the race is to take into account all of the polls, not just the one that makes me feel the happiest.

Where is Tennessee, you may ask? This latest Zogby poll shows Ford with a lead, but every other poll this month shows the opposite. In statistics, the Zogby poll would be considered an outlier. Is that the case here? I don't know. But all of a sudden people think we have six races in the bag, when in reality we barely have two in the bag, with another two seats vulnerable to a loss.

When I head into an election, especially one as important as this one, I like to be as prepared as possible, and I've found the best way to be prepared is to have as much information at my disposal. This is the biggest reason why I get frustrated: because instead of getting prepared for the elections, most people here would prefer to rely on wishful thinking, or to stick their heads in the sand whenever a poll they don't like is released. I think that's counter-productive, and I'm going to continue to say so.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Those are July numbers, but it brings up an interesting point

I'm convinced some states are more difficult to poll than others. In fact, much more difficult and therefore much less reliable numbers. I have no idea why Tennessee would fit in that category but it's possible Mason Dixon has trouble in that state. Only more samples, and closer to election day, would tell for sure. I know I've seen Zogby mention certain states he does significantly better in than others.

I like to evaluate state polls from cycle to cycle to see how they err. I'm always amazed polls can be accepted at face value even if they've proven tilted toward one side or the other in given state. Generally, state polls tend to overstate the minority party. That's been true an incredible percentage of the time since I started looking at polls in '96.

For example, I don't think Tony Knowles ever truly led the Alaska senate race in '04. Or perhaps he led very early but not the final months. I realize that's dead against the conventional wisdom, that Murkowski surged in the final days after Ted Stevens scared the crap out of Alaskans. However, that state is incredibly difficult to poll. I've read pollsters mention that several times. Plus, if you look at the exit polls there is dramatic indication Murkowski had the early support then Knowles got a huge percentage of the late deciders. IMO the pre-election polls were simply way off, identical to 2002 when they dramatically overstated Fran Ulmer's percentage against the elder Murkowski.

I know, Diebold. Every thread is Diebold.

[C_eh_N_eh_D_eh]

12. I assume Ford is a Democrat?

You'll notice how the article doesn't mention that. But I guess in Chattanooga, Democrats, like yankees, are things that people just don't talk about.

[Clark2008]

23. That's silly.

I wouldn't comment except to say that your comment is as bigoted as you think Southerners are.

[Vogon_Glory]

13. A Single-Digit Lead In The Polls Is Nice, BUT

A single-digit lead in the polls is nice, but I hope Volunteer State Democrats can turn out enough voters to carry over that lead from telephone and internet surveys over to the voting stations. As we've seen all too often in the last decade or so, "those people" have proven all too effective at turning out their voters while we Democrats try to get by on advertising and happy thoughts.

[4_TN_TITANS]

17. It's been very entertaining to watch....

Corker, Hilleary, and Bryant beat themselves up with negative adds so early on the tube here. They truly are the 'three stooges'. Corker's got money but he's going to blow a lot of it trying to defend against attacks. While Harold is mentioning real issues like gas prices, the 3 stooges are up to their knees in mud and slinging away at each other in full view of the public. I know realize the wisdom of Rosalind Kurita to drop out of the primary race so soon and not get in a battle with Harold.


Things seem to be on track to get a Dem from TN... (fingers crossed)

[CraigHinTenn]

28. It's going to cost the National GOP ALOT of $$ to keep this seat red

We have a great shot at taking this state back, and it could be the state that takes the Dems over the top for a majority in the Senate. Then we take our country back.

[Kokonoe]

18. Corker has had literally hundreds ads.

I see or hear 1 or 2 every hour.It's been going on for weeks. The media must be giving them away.

[TrueFunkSoldier]

19. The Ford family is thrilled!

Jr. is my third cousin (maternal grandfather's side). We'd be thrilled if he wins, making us proud of the first ever black elected U.S. Senator from Tennessee. I don't agree with all of his politics, but being from TN I do understand that you can't be a bleeding heart libbie like me and win office.

[Clark2008]

25. No - he's having to spend all his money in the primary, while

Harold, with no challenger, is saving his for after the Republican candidate is determined.

And Harold just raised another $1.25 million last reporting period.

[Clark2008]

21. Hot damn!!

Passing this along to friends and family now.

I know he's DLC, but it's still a vote for a Kennedy or Lehey chair!

:bounce:

[CraigHinTenn]

27. Great news. Let's hope so!!

[The Doctor.]

29. Are the machines there?

If so, polls mean nothing.

[ruggerson]

30. You owe Harold Ford 50 Bucks

Per the Diebold Rule: "Anyone who shall disrupt a candidate thread with the intention of demoralizing Democrats with Diebold defeatism shall owe that candidate $50."


Here's Ford's address for donations:

Harold Ford, Jr. for Tennessee
209 10th Avenue, South, Suite 229
Nashville, TN 37203

or click here:

https://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=Cr%2fGSlExNmsVA6Z524DjCA%3d%3d

[skipos]

48. That is a great rule! Kaine (D) won in VA in 05 on Diebold machines

by a bigger margin than polls predicted.

[The Doctor.]

51. Lol! Will do.

It's not about 'defeatism' though, it's about 'compensation' for the tendency of the machines to weigh off in favor of Republicans.

I never said you can't win with Diebold, I said that Diebold tends to skew polls.

[pf99]

32. I'm on the Ford Team!!!!

We working hard here in East TN as we get ready for the primary (even though we know will win).

His on the ground operation is strong and we have been getting lot of positive feedback.

I have a good feeling here.

[ruggerson]

44. Good going!

Please keep us updated. And tell Rep Ford we're all counting on him.

[pf99]

50. Will Do

Check the Tennessee section for updates.

[MrBenchley]

35. All right!

It would be great to pick up the seat that used to belong to Medicare-thief Frist....

[AtomicKitten]

40. WOOT!!!!!

n/t

[Clark2008]

46. We like those smart, cuties. Don't we:

WOOT!!

;)

[Flirtus]

52. I'm yet to be convinced Corker will prevail in the R primary

The Fundies are strong in Tennessee, hopefully those other two stooges will split that vote.

Corker's probably losing my mom's vote because of his TV ad's tag line "I'm Bob Corker and I approve of this message" which follows footage of him actually speaking his message, making him look stoopid. She's even talking about not voting for anyone.

But I also get the feeling of general nausea from my R relatives about this idiot in the whitehouse. Getting them to vote for a Dem from Memphis is such a long shot, even one who probably would vote the way they wanted.

I'm continually shocked, shocked I tell you, at the young women in my family who are R. I maybe have moved one into 'undecided, still thinking', and luckily she's not 18 until after the primary.

[TheVirginian]

53. Every poll has Corker up by a lot.

I've yet to be convinced that Corker won't win the primary.