Most recent Florida poll

[bornskeptic]

There was a thread a while ago in which the original poster was strongly supportive of the convential wisdom that a Massachusetts liberal can't do well in the South. He is a strong Edwards supporter, and I have always thought his posts very well thought out. I am also an admirer of John Edwards, and I will admit that there is a very strong possibility that Edwards would out-poll Kerry in most of the southern states, although I don't think that is as obvious as most people seem to think. However, given what I know about the demographics of Florida, I don't really see any reason to think that any of the other candidates would be stronger in Florida than Kerry. So I looked to see if I could find a poll. This is what I found. Of course this is only a poll of likely Democratic voters, and any single poll this far in advance of the elections is only a small piece of evidence. Still, I think it's pretty hard to explain this as simply the result of media spin. Anyway, take it for what you will.

Survey USA 1/24-26 MoE 4.9%
Kerry 38%
Dean 16%
Edwards 14%
Clark 10%
Lieberman 8%
Sharpton 6%
other 3%
undecided 5%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/FLPoll.htm#pres

[TexasSissy]

1. FL isn't really THE south. It has large nor'easterner retirement

community, and lots of hispanics. It's a far cry from Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Virginy.

So it's not a good state to look at as to how someone would do in THE south.

But Kerry came in second in S. Carolina, didn't he? I think that's a good gauge as to how he'd do vs. another good politician southerner.

[dolstein]

2. Tell that to Jeb Bush and his supporters

Sorry, but Jeb Bush is one of the most conservative governors in the country, and he was reelected in the landslide. So it's certainly not part of the North, where Republicans traditionally have to be liberal on social issues to get elected.