'06 SEN Polling update. (16 new polls)

[TheVirginian]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

Zogby/WSJ's monthly update notes:

Arizona:

Kyl: 50.2%
Pederson: 42.4%

Maryland:

Mfume: 49.8%
Steele: 41.2%

Cardin: 49.9%
Steele: 42.4%

Michigan:

Stabenow: 48%
Bouchard: 41.8%

Minnesota:

Klobuchar: 49.4%
Kennedy: 42.9%

Missouri:

Talent: 49%
McCaskill: 45.2%

Nevada:

Ensign: 49.5%
Carter: 35%

New Jersey:

Menendez: 44.8%
Kean: 39%

Ohio:

Brown: 45.2%
DeWine: 36.6%

Pennsylvania:

Casey: 49.2%
Santorum: 40.2%

Tennesee:

Ford: 43.6
Corker: 42.5

Virginia:

Allen: 51.9%
Webb: 41.3%

Washington:

Cantwell: 49.4%
McGavick: 41.7%


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/tenneseeSenate.htm

Tennesee:

Corker: 49%
Ford: 36%

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_072706.htm

Michigan:

Stabenow: 52%
Bouchard: 36%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=cb5e456a-a797-4727-93fe-f7615e212c10

Minnesota:

Klobuchar: 47%
Kennedy: 42%

http://www.brcpolls.com/06/RMP-2006-III-01.pdf

Arizona:

Kyl: 45%
Pederson: 27%

[Stinky The Clown]

1. I'm lovin' that WSJ poll .....

....... in Maryland, its nice to see that Mfume is actually doing better than Cardin. Both are good guys, but Mfume's my guy.

[TheVirginian]

3. I'm curious to see new primary polling there.

The most recent polling data I have for it is the Baltimore Sun's polling done on July 10th, with Cardin leading 32-28. Since its a primary with a large number of undecideds, its basically a statistical tie.

I've been following the primary, and the general concensus is that Cardin is the front-runner, which means that he has the most to lose. Undoubtedly, you've seen the Josh Rales commercials on T.V. On top of that, Allan Lichtman is running to Cardin's left. Everything I've read says that Rales and Lichtman will chip away at Cardin's support, while Mfume's support will stay intact. So depending on how effective those two spoiler candidates are, and how large the turnout is, it could be a real horse-race for the Democratic nomination.

[Stinky The Clown]

13. There was a hidden gem in that WSJ/Zogby link ......

Rales (39.9%) holds up pretty well against Steele (46.7%). Yes, I've seen his commercials. I don't know that much about him, but he seems an okay guy. Lichtman, as you say, is the other spoiler and also a good guy. Cardin is kinda like Maryland's version of Hillary Clinton (not a comparison of their politics, just their status among the 'conventional wisdom' set) in that he's the presumed front runner. But Mfume is a seasoned politician and knows how to campaign. There's a huge difference in their campaign style. Cardin is staying on the high ground for now, not engaging anyone very much. Kinda cautious, in a way. Mfume is out doing one on one retail politics at company picnics and churches and nursing homes, shaking hands and kissing babies. It seems to be paying off. He's the only in the race who's showing a consistent trend pattern - and its all up. Cardin just stays pretty much flat.

I agree with your assessment of the primary. Cardin is the most vulnerable. (That Sun poll is the latest I saw, too.)

[SaveElmer]

15. While I have no problem with him being compared to Hillary...

I get the impression he is more like Sarbanes in temperament...

I have always been a big fan of Sarbanes

[Stinky The Clown]

24. Yeah, he really is like Sarbanes in temperament

Very low key and quiet. At the risk of offending my CPA .... he comes off like an accountant. Competent, but not very exciting.

As I always feel compelled to say, while I'm with Mfume right now I will not at all be upset with Cardin. Both men are good ... as are Rales and Lichtman, for that matter. An embarrassment of riches.

[SaveElmer]

26. That's true about Sarbanes...but

You know...whan a guy like him speaks, you just know he is serious about what he is saying, not performing for the cameras, or trying to score cheap points. You always get the feeling that if he is advocating something, he has thoroughly studied the issue, and really know what he is talking about..

Just never need to worry about a guy like that...he always instills confidence!

[TheVirginian]

27. That's what I've heard as well

Cardin is considered the most Senatorial, the establishment choice, which is why he sits back from campaigining with a dignified air and collects the endorsements of the majority of Democrats. But he just doesn't excite people the way Mfume does. If Cardin was already an incumbent, then it wouldn't matter, but since this is an opean seat, Cardin has to earn it, and it could be harder than expected with someone like Mfume as the competition.

[SaveElmer]

8. From a Democratic perspective....

This is good news...Cardin is my guy there, but I definitely do not want to lose Maryland...

Still, the crap about Mfume is gonna come up if he is the nominee, I hope they have a strategy for dealing with that...

Still this poll does make me feel better...and this was taken before Steele put his foot in his mouth this week...

[Stinky The Clown]

18. I'd bet anything they have a strategy to deal with it

Unlike what I observed in some other threads, I won't criticize you for having a concern about future mudslinging against Mfume. Hell, the WaPo's been hard at it for months. You and I both know they'll be back with it.

But these allegations have been around for years and so far have come to exactly nothing. I can't believe the NAACP would allow anything to sink Mfume's campaign. They never confirmed anything about it way back then and they've not done anything since. On balance, Mfume was a good leader there and they owe him a lot.

Mud coming from the right will not hold too much sway in Maryland, particularly after that flap in which Ehrlich's people slimed O'Malley for well over a year and O'Malley stayed silent to the end ... unti it was all revealed as lies and slime and Ehrlich's top dog was found to be the slimer in chief and the slime just stuck to Ehrlich. Steele's been joined to Ehrlich's hip forever and also has deep ties to Rove. I don't think their slime will stick ... and could well come back to bite them on the ass if they try it. It wouldn't surprise me to see it never even come up. Except ..... Rove has, in fact, been in touch with Steele's campaign and you know what that fat fuck likes to do ...... so for sure we need to be careful.

[SaveElmer]

22. Well I hope you are right about a strategy being in place...

I'm sure the allegations are all bullshit anyway...but that never stopped the media from pursuing them...and the proximity to DC will even make it that much more intense

Steele is really a miserable candidate...he cannot debate, and he has this knack for saying the stupidest things in public...

[SaveElmer]

2. Wow...lookin great! A couple things...

I feel much better about Maryland. I have been supporting Cardin mainly becasue I think he is the better prepared for the job, but also because I have had doubts about Mfume's electibility...while this is only one poll, I feel better about it. They still need to decide what they are gonna do when the stuff about his supposed indiscretions comes up again...

Minnesota looks good...this poll is actually quite a bit closer than two recent polls that had Klobuchar ahead by as much as 19 points...still she is clearly the favorite. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Kennedy is not a good candidate...he underperformed Bush in his district in 2000 and 2004.

Tennessee has been my upset special all along...I think Harold Ford is an excellent candidate there...

And I am very happy about Ohio...I think Brown is the correct candidate there as well

[TheVirginian]

5. I don't know about those polls.

I definately think Klobuchar is leading, and I think she'll win. The race has gone from a statistical tie to a four-to-eight point lead for her in the last two months. But I don't neccesarily buy the Star-Tribune poll that gives her a 19-point lead. The other poll that has her with a 12 point lead was bought and paid for by the DSCC. While that doesn't invalidate it, I prefer pollsters who don't have a horse in the race.

The nature of Minnesota, the fact that its an open seat, and the fact that Kennedy is a Congressman already leads me to believe that the race is a lot closer than double-digits. These new polls seem a lot more on target, as well as a lot more consistent with the way the race has been trending.

At this point, I'm ready to declare Washington more vulnerable than Minnesota.

[SaveElmer]

6. I think that is true...

But I have trouble believing Cantwell will lose in the end...

Especially in the current climate!

[TheVirginian]

9. I don't know if she'll lose.

But already, the race is a lot closer than its supposed to be. Part of that is due to Cantwell having base problems, part of that is due to Cantwell never being particularly popular in Washington, but most of it is due to McGavick being a strong and underrated candidate. In my opinion, he's the only reason why the race is as competitive as it is.

Here's what makes me hesitant about saying for sure that she won't lose: She beat Gordon Slate in 2000 by the narrowest of margins. Dino Rossi lost to Christine Gregorie in 2004 by less than a thousand votes. Meanwhile, most WA voters think the state is on the wrong track. Take a look at these questions from the Strategic Vision poll (link in the OP):

9. If the Election for Governor in 2008 was between the Democrat Christine Gregoire and the Republican, Dino Rossi, whom would you vote for?
Dino Rossi 51%
Christine Gregoire 41%
Undecided 8%

15. Do you think Washington is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 29%
Wrong 60%
Undecided 11%


While generally I agree with you that this is a toxic environment for the GOP to run in, especially in a blue state, I think in some states (like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, and Washington, for example), an even stronger sentiment is an anti-incumbent environment, regardless of party. The fact that Rossi has a ten-point lead, and the fact that so many Washingtonians think things are going badly, tells me to throw conventional wisdom out the window. This is a new race, and its one that we can't afford to take for granted.

[SaveElmer]

10. Yeah you are right...

I'm not an expert, but Washington politics has always been a bit quirky...how they elected Gorton, who is on the board of the Discovery Institute for God's sake...is beyond me. But it is good news that she is ahead in the polls...

I hope the party is planning on dumping tons of money in there

[Awsi Dooger]

33. That's what I appreciate, reasons to dispute the poll numbers

These things aren't exactly absolute. It makes me sick when poll numbers and margins are blindly accepted, minus logical scrutiny.

I agree with you on the anti-incumbency aspect and looking at hints like right track/wrong track, but from what I've seen over the years things like that have much greater relevance in gov races than federal races. It's gov races where you have wild results that seemingly make no sense based on pre-election polling. If the state is sick of the party in charge they toss them out, or come much closer to doing it than the pre-election polls suggest.

In federal races there's much more of the polarized party line loyalty right now, and I expect that to continue this year and foreseeable. Struggle for control, almost like a tug of war. Granted, more volatility in a midterm than a presidential year because turnout is a wild card.

[ruggerson]

4. Question

Where are MT and RI?

[TheVirginian]

7. Answer:

No major pollster has released any new information on those races in the last week. This wasn't mean to be comprehensive, only a recap of races that haven't been discussed that were released in the last couple of days.

But, since I don't want you walking away disappointed, here is the most recent polling information out of MT and RI:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/rhodeIslandSenate.htm

Whitehouse: 46%
Chafee: 41%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/montanaSenate.htm

Tester: 50%
Burns: 43%

[ruggerson]

11. Thanks!

So, correct my math if I'm mistaken, but those polls coupled with Zogby's would show a Senate ending up at 50/50 with Cheney breaking the tie.

[TheVirginian]

16. Not quite.

Zogby gives Talent a four-point lead in Missouri. That might not neccesarily hold up, but if we go by these numbers, then we'd pick up in PA, MT, OH, and RI, giving us four seats, not five, resulting in a 51-49 advantage for the GOP.

I'm not even prepared to go that far, since so much of Rhode Island depends on the primary. If Chafee wins, you can expect to see his support among conservatives go up, which will make the race more competitive, and possibly give him back the lead.

So right now, we're looking at a solid three-seat gain, with potential in Missouri and Rhode Island. We just need to keep New Jersey and Washington on our side.

[ruggerson]

17. True

But doesn't Zogby also have TN as a tossup? Certainly he has it closer than the Mason Dixon poll. I've always thought the Senate was a tougher road than the House, as it would take ALL the chips falling our way at once to retake it.

But, then again, that's what happens sometimes when you have a tidal wave.

[Stinky The Clown]

20. Several polls are very strong for Ford

I'm with you. I think TN is very possibly about to move into 'pickup' territory.

[TheVirginian]

23. Here's the thing about Tennessee...

Zogby puts the race as a toss-up. That's fine. But three other polls have been done in the last two weeks that show Corker with a large lead over Ford:

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/election/article/0,1406,KNS_630_4856677,00.html (University of TN)

Corker: 42%
Ford: 35%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/tenneseeSenate.htm (Rasmussen)

Corker: 49%
Ford: 37%

http://www.dicksonherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060724/NEWS0206/607240327/0/NEWS1302 (Mason Dixon)

Corker: 49%
Ford: 36%


In the face of three other polls conducted during the same time, I tend to consider Zogby's poll as an outlier. On top of that, polls from the last two months support Corker's momentum more than they support Ford with a lead over him. I'm especially suspect of the Zogby poll because it shows more in-state support for Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary than Corker, even though every single poll conducted shows Corker with a huge advantage over them in the primary. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but I don't consider Tennessee to be a close race right now.

[ruggerson]

12. Btw

I hadn't seen the poll putting Webb a point away from Allen. That's amazing.

[TheVirginian]

14. I think you're reading that wrong.

Allen: 51.9
Webb: 41.3

[ruggerson]

19. Ah, you're right, my eyes got overly optimistic on me n/t

[Stinky The Clown]

21. Hahaha

I had the same eye malady you did at first. I did a double take and my eyes cleared up, though.

I SOOOOO want Webb to win that.

[AX10]

25. kick

[SaveElmer]

28. Are you really from Virginia?

I live in Fairfax County and get asked alot about Webb...

What do you think his actual chances are? I heard he underperformed in the debate last week?

And he needs money

My gut feeling is we can't knock off Allen, but can perhaps bloody him up enough to derail his chances in 2008!

[TheVirginian]

29. Yes, I am.

I don't think Webb has a chance, as much as it pains me to say. I think he's a good candidate, I just don't think he has enough resources, and I don't think Allen is vulnerable enough, to make it happen. As for what it will do to Allen's '08 ambitions, I don't know yet. A lot of that depends on how well Allen campaigns these next three months.

[SaveElmer]

30. Yeah I think it would take a 1994 esque sweep...

To knock off a guy like Allen...

Sometimes in my gut I sense that happening...just so many unexpectedly close races....but I am not yet prepared to make that prediction...

I also have been predicting a 3 seat pickup...Montana, Pennsylvania, and I ahve been predicting Tennessee...

[Stinky The Clown]

31. I know you didn't ask me, but I wanna jump in, if I may .......

I've been following Webb since before his name was common knowledge.

I'll start by saying I think he has two hurdles to overcome in Virginia - money and the (D) after his name. If the DSCC supports him, he could get some serious traction. The "(D)" thing is harder. It isn't that a Dem can't win in Virginia (witness Warner and Kaine) but rather that he changed parties. Some Repubs inclined to cross over might be offended by that and not cross out of obstinance. And some Dems may just be offended by a party switcher.

Some smaller issues ..... he's not a racist and wrote a book that seemed to have as its main thrust an attempt to build a sturdy bridge between the old time Scotch-Irish (who morphed into today's racist-tending Southerners) and Blacks. Allen walks right up the racist line and winks ... before he spits into his styrofoam cup. That's not to say that rural Virginians are overt racists, but ..... well .... we've both been to Winchester and Roanoke and Lynchburg and Martinsville and Radford and Marion and .......

I think he'll do pretty well in Tidewater, NoVa, and around Richmond. Its the rural vote he needs. But then ... he's got Mudcat Saunders on his side and Mudcat's quite the guy!

So maybe it comes down to money.

[SaveElmer]

32. There are plenty of overt racists in Virgnia...

I hate to say...a small minority...but not invisible

I used to be a Civil War Reenactor, and while most of the guys in Confederate units were history buffs and nothing more...there was a significant core who were trying to bring back the lost cause...and were extremely racist...

Anyway I digress....Webb has his military record to tout...and that is a big plus in Virginia...

But Allen is the luckiest politician on earth...he gets elected Governor becasue he is the son of a famous, but wildly overrated Redskins coach...rides the Clinton economy to good ratings as Governor, and then runs against the weakened Chuck Robb to get into the Senate!

Despite being dumb as a pile of rocks, and in a state where Bush's approval is way down, for some reason, he is still popular (though not as popular as Warner).

I just get the feeling Webb is gonna pull the standard 43% Democrats usually get here...unless something happens to really shake things up!

[Stinky The Clown]

34. Somewhere in my gut ......

... is this sense that Mudcat's gunna stir up a shit brew and pour it on Allen.

Plus it appears that both Warner and Kaine will be working pretty hard for him. Wesley Clark has also thrown some support to Webb and I think will be campaigning for him.

[SaveElmer]

35. Well I hope you are right...

I would love nothing better than to see Felix sent packin...