nevada's governors race

[thatsrightimirish]

I have a few questions

Who's winning the democratic primary and who has the best shot to win in November?

[ray of light]

1. I don't know.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I have a sense Titus has regained the advantage

A month ago I would have picked Gibson. He had a long stretch of media buy while Titus was off the air. At that point he took a slight lead in the primary polling despite being an underdog most of the race. But last night he was on the defensive during an hour long debate on Jon Ralston's local political show. They've been debating on that program frequently. Very spirited, if not edgy. Normally it's a half hour but expanded last night, since the primary is only a few weeks away, August 15.

Gibson made a gaffe in a previous appearance that program, indicating he could support a ban on abortions, except in the case of rape, incest or to save a woman's life. His campaign later said he was opposed to criminalizing abortion. Last night he said he's never been in favor of criminalizing abortion and it's a non-issue, but it made the papers today so that's hardly the case.

Gibson is less progressive than Dina Titus and she has been trying to peg herself as the true Democrat. Her new commercials focus on her background as a teacher. Education has been a huge issue in the campaign since Las Vegas has been expanding so rapidly the number of schools and teachers have been lacking.

Good question regarding who would have a better chance against Jim Gibbons, the certain GOP nominee. Both of our candidates will be underdogs, in the 4-6 point range starting out. Yes, it might be Jim Gibbons vs. Jim Gibson.

Their nominee Gibbons is prone to blunder and I think Gibson is a bit nastier than Titus and more able to potentially exploit Gibbons. So far Gibbons has refused to debate his Republican opponents and his strategy has been to shut up and sit on the lead. Only this week did some fluffy commercials appear.

It's a bit of a tradeoff. Gibson would probably do better in rural Nevada as a male and less progressive, but Titus could pull a bigger percentage out of Clark County (Las Vegas). We probably need Gibbons to run a flawed race to beat him, but he's more than capable of that, as demonstrated numerous times last year. That's why his strategists put on the muzzle. He will have a big edge in dollars.

Unfortunately, the senate race is non-competitive so that might lessen Democratic turnout. If flamboyant Oscar Goodman had challenged Gibbons for gov or Ensign for senator, both rumored at various points, he would have really put the spotlight on the race, even nationally, and I'm sure the turnout would have been higher.