Three new VA SEN polls (Webb vs. Allen)

[TheVirginian]

Zogby/WSJ put out an Interactive poll:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

Conducted July 11-19

Allen: 51.9%
Webb: 41.2%

MoE: +/- 3.6%

Zogby International did a traditonal telephone survey:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1151

Conducted July 12-15

Allen: 47%
Webb: 37%

MoE: +/- 4.5%

And Rasmussen came out to day with their latest polling:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/virginiaSenate.htm

Conducted July 18th

Allen 50%
Webb 39%

MoE +/- 4.5%


Here's what Zogby had to say about what the polling reflected:

"Jim Webb got a bounce from his primary that raised him up within four or five points, but he has been criticized for not raising enough money, and he cannot win unless he raises a considerable amount of money. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is interested in Jim Webb. They backed him in the primary, and Democrats, in Virginia as well as all over the country, want to block George Allen from doing well to hinder his run for President. The bottom line – this is a competitive race because this is a competitive state, but Jim Webb has got to start getting some money in."

[SaveElmer]

1. Absent anything unusual...

That is about what Democrats usually pull against a popular Republcian. Webb needs to get off his butt and raise some money or this is a dead end race

[ananda]

21. Why is Allen popular?

I really want to know.

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. Former Governors who aren't involved in a major scandal are usually

well liked in their state.

[liberaliraqvet26]

2. Webb has so much potential....

to bring back "reagan democrats" and veterans to the party. I hope he can pull off a sqeaker.

[Catchawave]

3. Everyone can help a little bit....

linky below :hi:

[flpoljunkie]

4. Thanks for the link. Donated to Webb's campaign. K&R!

[Catchawave]

7. That's the spirit !

Thanks for your help :hi:

[lostnfound]

26. So did I, a week ago. nt

[lostnfound]

27. So did I, a week ago. nt

[Virginian]

5. He needs more national support, too.

I keep seeing links to someone wanting or needing support in another state. I haven't seen anything like that for Webb. This is an important race. If we can get rid of Allen this year, we won't have to deal with him on a larger scale two years down the road.

Allen does not represent his constituents, he is a rubber stamp for Bushco. Whenever there is a drive to "Call your senator and ask him to vote for...", Allen's phones are not working because he is always going to vote for what the White House wants, even if it is not good for Virginia.

Has Webb received an endorsement from former Governor Doug Wilder? Does Wilder know about Allen's colorful past of the noose, the confederate flags and the rival high school racist graffiti?

The publicity is just not getting out. I heard the other day that Webb and Allen had debated. I saw no prior notice of it or I would have tried to watch it.

[TheVirginian]

6. I'm not sure about Wilder.

I know that Wilder and Allen are close, personally.

EDIT: Here's a link to WaPo's Insider blog:

http://blogs.washingtontimes.com/insiderpolitics/

Scroll 3/4ths the way down to a July 20th entry:

"Sen. George Allen this week tipped his proverbial cowboy hat to one of his state’s favorite sons.

...

“Thanks in part to the Voting Rights Act, Virginia was the first state in the nation to popularly elect the first African-American governor, L. Douglas Wilder,” Mr. Allen said. “I hope we see even more African-Americans elected this next year and I’m committed and dedicated to ensure that the voting rights of all law-abiding Americans are protected and this act has proven to be an able vessel of accomplishing this important objective for our country.”

Mr. Wilder, now mayor of Richmond, has been the wild card in a few elections, holding his endorsements close until the last minute and not necessarily sticking within his own party. In 2005, he ultimately endorsed Democrat Timothy M. Kaine in what had been a nail biter. Mr. Kaine went on to win the governorship, and Republican Robert F. McDonnell, who also had Mr. Wilder’s blessing, won the attorney general’s race by a nose.

Not so long ago, “Mayor Doug,” as some like to call him, told me he considers Mr. Allen the favorite to win reelection this fall. "George is going to be very formidable,” Mr. Wilder said. “He’s folksy and people like him."


So take that for what its worth.

[rogue emissary]

8. Honestly how would Wilder's endorsement help Webb?

He won the primary without winning a large number of African American voters. It appears that he's going the same route in the general election.

Another factor is most Virginians outside of Richmond don't remember Wilder or like him. So Wilder's endorsement wouldn't really do much for boosting Webb's numbers.

[TheVirginian]

9. Maybe some don't remember him, but many do.

Especially African-Americans and people who have lived here for longer than fifteen years.

[rogue emissary]

11. Can't say if he still has sway with African Americans.

Reading the VA's Du group it's clear he's pretty much hated by a ot of Virginia natives.

[TheVirginian]

12. That's because he's a moderate.

But a lot of African American voters in Virginia are as well. Plus, he commands the respect of Richmond, which has a lot of black voters, and he gets the support of black delagates around the state, which can go a long way towards setting up local networks.

[rogue emissary]

13. Okay, you convinced me. So how do we get Wilder and Webb on the same page?

:)

[Virginian]

16. K &R Yes, someone who has access, please talk to Wilder. n/t

[TheVirginian]

19. Its hard to say. Wilder likes to stay quiet until just before the end.

[Schema Thing]

23. Weird. Webb's history should make him very popular with

African Americans, I would think.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. I think that Webb will need an October surprise to win

But those are becoming more and more common these days.

[freethought]

14. Just contributed to Webb

Look, I don't even live in Virginia but I hate George Allen with passion to spare. Allen is just sooooo---- smarmy! I just don't see what Virginians see in him. Sure, he may talk football well but beyond that he strikes me as an airhead. The last thing this country needs is another conservative airhead that people "wouldn't mind having a beer with", especially in the White House.

If I can do something to trip up George Allen from my home in Maine, by golly I will do it.

[Donna Zen]

15. Why isn't some of the effort being spent on Joe

Going to Webb?

[Catchawave]

24. You are so right....

Defeating republicans should be our #1 priority right now.

[autorank]

17. Webb has not yet begun to fight...when he does, watch out.

Webb is a very interesting guy, a soldier and an intellectual, not afraid to enter the realm of ideas and engage in debate. I think he's complex politically but he's appealing for several reasons:

1) He's not Allen, nor is he vulnerable to the right wing extremists Robertson and Falwell.

2) He's got charisma...if he gets money, watch out, not equal money just enough for some serious media buys, particularly in Tidewater (heavy military, they remember him well) and Southwest Virginia (he's from there).

3) He shows a lot of respect on the race issue and he's thought about it. Sure Wilder would be great to have on board but Wilder is Quixotic, to say the least, and contrarian almost always (excellent governor though). Webb complains that the Democratic Party has never tried to resolve the artificial conflict between black voters and working class whites. He is pro civil rights and he'll make that point. Watch for the Confederate history of Allen to come out (his adorations as a teen in Southern California, he was the only one btw, and the Confederate History Month he tried to pull). Wilder is not a boss by any means and black Virginians can think quite well for themselves.

4) The 53-47% primary has to be questioned. Miller (of Diebold lobbying fame) did real well in Diebold areas. What a surprise. He's the "liberal" right but he sucked air in Northern Virginia. That's due to a smart voting public here, smart enough to know that Miller wanted to ship their jobs over seas and also that he could never win in Virginia. The primary was a 4% affair, very low turnout which is not good but it's also not meaningful.

5) Check the statement out below and imagine a debate between a naturally poised Webb and the churlish Allen and then Webb, The Cinderella Man, gets his opening and "draft dodger" comes out in one form or the other - "It's easy to send men to war when you've never been to war yourself." Allen's nasty temper flares and Webb gives him the "I can kick your ass from here to Sunday afternoon if you want" look. It's all over then.


Here is how Webb's campaign responded to the first "swiftboating" attempt. It's highly instructive of what is to come. You'll savor every word to see how a fighting Democrat behaves:

"From a statement released by Steve Jarding, an adviser to Jim Webb's VA Senate campaign. http://tinyurl.com/naybx

“George Felix Allen Jr. and his bush-league lapdog, Dick Wadhams, have not earned the right to challenge Jim Webb’s position on free speech and flag burning. Jim Webb served and fought for our flag and what it stands for, while George Felix Allen Jr. chose to cut and run. When he and his disrespectful campaign puppets attack Jim Webb they are attacking every man and woman who served. Their comments are nothing more than weak-kneed attacks by cowards. George Felix Allen Jr. needs to apologize to Jim Webb and to all men and women who have served our nation."

On Tuesday, George Felix Allen Jr. and his campaign issued a press release in which the Allen campaign, through Wadhams, implied that Webb’s position in support of the Free Speech Amendment to the U.S. Constitution amounted to a political act and not a defense of our Constitution, which Webb fought for and for which he was highly decorated. George Felix Allen Jr. did not serve.

“While Jim Webb and others of George Felix Allen Jr.’s generation were fighting for our freedoms and for our symbols of freedom in Vietnam, George Felix Allen Jr. was playing cowboy at a dude ranch in Nevada. People who live in glass dude ranches should not question the patriotism of real soldiers who fought and bled for this country on a real battlefield,” Jarding said.

Well then...it will be a barn burner, count on it. Webb will win because that's what he does.

Won't even be close. And Rasmussen is such an ass...believe Zogby.

[TheVirginian]

18. You've lost me a couple of places...

"Wilder is not a boss by any means and black Virginians can think quite well for themselves."

My point wasn't that black voters will automatically go whereever Wilder tells them to. My point was that black voters in Virginia have been in Virginia a while, and they trust Wilder, and to a certain extent, they trust Allen. And if Allen gets Wilder's endorsement, its not a matter of putting a black face on TV and hoping that black voters vote for Allen, its a matter of reaching out to black leaders around the state and building a network of support, in communities and churches.

"The 53-47% primary has to be questioned. Miller (of Diebold lobbying fame) did real well in Diebold areas. What a surprise. He's the "liberal" right but he sucked air in Northern Virginia. That's due to a smart voting public here, smart enough to know that Miller wanted to ship their jobs over seas and also that he could never win in Virginia. The primary was a 4% affair, very low turnout which is not good but it's also not meaningful."

There's no reason to throw Harris Miller under the bus just to prove a point about Webb. Miller has been a life-long Democrat, even if you disagree with his position on free trade. One of his clients when he was President of the ITAA was the firm that owns Diebold, yes. That doesn't mean he committed vote fraud, that doesn't mean he tried to commit vote fraud, and that doesn't mean that he has anything more than a passing connection to voting machines.

The primary was close because Miller outspent Webb, and Miller got the support of African-Americans. In the end, people chose electability. And the primary is meaningful in the sense that there are a portion of Democrats who, as of June 2006, aren't sure about Jim Webb.

"Check the statement out below and imagine a debate between a naturally poised Webb and the churlish Allen..."

They had a debate last week, and those descriptions did not define either man.

"Webb will win because that's what he does."

Webb has never run for political office before. Allen has run for State Delagate, the House of Representatives, Governor, and Senator. I'm not quite sure what that sentence means.

"And Rasmussen is such an ass...believe Zogby."

So you want me to discard Rasmussen's results that show Allen with an 11-point lead and... accept Zogby's results that show Allen with an 11-point lead? I think, instead of doing that, I'll look at all the polling that comes out about the race instead of sticking my head in the sand when a poll comes out that I don't like. Say what you want about Rasmussen, but he wouldn't be used and he wouldn't be popular if his results were meaningless. Contrary to tin-foil beliefs, he doesn't tack on an extra ten points to whomever the Republican is, and believe it or not, Rasmussen isn't even the poll that gave Allen his biggest lead. That honor goes to SurveyUSA, which put Allen up by 17 points, and is a pollster that people on this board regularly cite.

[autorank]

28. Hey Virginian..

You are so unfriendly to me, now and in the past, & I'm a fellow Northern Virginian or is this your attitude with everybody.

I was not responding to you. But since you took it that way a few comments...

If Wilder endorses Allen, I'd be surprised but not much. I see Wilder as someone who is so smart, he gets bored every now and then and creates a little controversy. He has no reason to support Allen and it would hurt him now and if he has any future ambitions. That's not likely. Even so, won't matter. Deeds polled the same as Byrne in urban Virginia and Wilder made it clear he didn't like Deed's endorsement from NRA, etc. etc. People think for themselves here, from my experience.

I think that there is every reason to throw Miller under the bus. He was the lobbyist for Diebold. Here he is planning to discredit activists seeking reliable, verifiable elections. He also helped push through the facilitating legislation for out sourcing, which has a negative impact and ships jobs overseas. Not my kind of Democrat.

Not many people chose...only 4% voted in the primary. I'm just grateful Webb won.

The debates I'm talking about are the ones in Sept or Oct or the exchanges sans debates. Webb has to get going before he unloads his big stuff.

I have watched Rasmussen over time and consider him biased. For having that opinion, you make a "tin foil" reference. Any exchange I have with you is like this even though we talked about being Democrats from the same area of Virginia. Why don't you just not respond to me and I'll do the same for you.

On edit: About Webb being a winner, I'm referring to a life time of significant and substantive service to his country, to intellectual output in his books and articles, and to the dignity with which he carries himself. He's quite a guy and I felt that way before he ever signed up to be a Democrat.

[underpants]

20. Within 10 points before LAbor Day? That is pretty damned good

especially since NO ONE is paying attention to this yet here in Va.

[Eurobabe]

25. Gotta agree with you...

things don't start getting serious until after Labor Day.