Washington Senate: Cantwell 48%, McGavick 37%

[skipos]

July 31, 2006
Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell

On the heels of her campaign’s first statewide television ad campaign, Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell’s poll numbers have improved for the first time in months. Cantwell now leads challenger Mike McGavick (R) by 11 percentage points, 48% to 37%. That’s up from a four point lead in June.

The ratings reversal comes after six previous polls showed Cantwell’s numbers steadily falling. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll of 500 likely voters was taken a week after the launch of the 30-second television spot, “First,” which touts Cantwell’s accomplishments on behalf of Washington state’s families.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/washingtonSenate.htm

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Seen her commmercials.

A bunch of shit that never made it into law.

But McGavick? Gack!

[longship]

2. Good news this.

We need to keep this seat.

[The Blue Flower]

3. How about a progressive in that seat?

Yes, we need to keep the seat. But it doesn't have to be Cantwell's pro-war butt in that seat. Hong Tran is a highly qualified primary challenger to Cantwell, and she's running a good campaign. www.hongtran.com

[ISUGRADIA]

6. Sorry, she'll get 10, maybe 15% tops

Her $18,000 can't ovecome Cantwell's $13,780,000

[Tiggeroshii]

7. Give her better funding and say hello to your new Republican Senator.

n/t

[AX10]

4. Good to hear.

[snowbear]

5. Very good to hear! ..Ted Stevens will wet his Depends if she wins...

..after all the money he spent on getting her opponent elected!

[fujiyama]

8. Good

About time showing the state breaking our way. It's a must win.

I hear a lot of whining about Cantwell and I haven't been impressed with her votes. My own Dem. senator has some votes I'm not happy with.

But I'll be damned if I let a fuckin repuke get a hold of this state's senate seat.

[TheVirginian]

9. Here is what concerns me about this poll...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/July%202006/washingtonSenate.htm

According to Rasmussen, this poll was conducted on July 17th, 2006. While this is after Rasmussen's last poll that gave Cantwell only a four-point lead (and which is where Rasmussen is conducting its analysis about Cantwell's bump), there were two polls conducted after this one, but released before Rasmussen released its own.

Zogby and the Wall Street Journal did their monthly polling blitz, the results of which can be found here:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

These polls were conducted over the course of five days, and wrapped up on the 19th of July. Its impossible to tell which states were conducted at which time, and how long each state took, but going strictly by the numbers, the Zogby poll is more recent than the Rasmussen one, and it gives these results:

Cantwell: 49.4%
McGavick: 41.7%

A respectable 7.5% lead, but closer than Rasmussen. But here's what really concerns me:

http://strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_072606.htm

This poll by Strategic Vision was conducted almost a full week after Rasmussen, wrapping up on July 23rd, and they give these numbers:

Cantwell: 48%
McGavick: 44%

If Rasmussen claims that, on July 17th, Cantwell's statewide ads were effective in enlarging the gap between her and her opponent, then how come that doesn't show up in the other two polls conducted AFTER the Rasmussen poll? Granted, Zogby's poll still shows a 7-point gap, but if you compare the trends, Zogby and Strategic Vision have McGavick narrowing the lead, while Rasmussen has Cantwell increasing the lead.

This is just a matter of different methodologies at play, so its impossible to credit one poll over another. However, when two polls agree on something and one does not, its easier to discard that one poll as an outlier. This is especially the case if that poll is the least recent of the three. I'm not trying to discount the 12-point lead that Rasmussen gives Cantwell, but its important to keep all of these polls in mind, and the times they were conducted, especially if we're trying to devine some sort of competant analysis out of them. I don't know how this race is going to turn out, I'm just saying, I have some concerns.

[WestSeattle2]

10. This should liven things up......

http://mcgavicklawsuit.com/

[Doctor_J]

11. So the crooks are moving from the background (ala Lay)

to the foreground. That would sort of complete the GOP's grand vision. If slimy CEO's can run for office themselves, instead of just funding stupid front men like Smirk, it would eliminate alot of waste.

[WestSeattle2]

12. Yes, they are taking the stupid out of stupid front men

and running themselves. Idiot puppets were preferable until the idiot puppets became too much of a distraction.