Cook: Dems will take House; 50-50 chance for Senate

[welshTerrier2]

not even Red Rover Red Rover can fix this it this time ... imagine bush's expression during his first day on the witness stand ...

ahhhhhh, i can see it now ...

source: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/08/04/the_gathering_storm.html

From Charlie Cook's forthcoming National Journal column:

"Time is running out for Republicans. Unless something dramatic happens before Election Day, Democrats will take control of the House. And the chances that they’ll seize the Senate are rising toward 50-50.

The electoral hurricane bearing down on the GOP looks likely to be a Category 4 or 5, strong enough to destroy at least one of the party’s majorities. The political climate feels much as it did before previous elections that produced sizable upheavals, such as in 1994, when Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats, and control of both chambers."

[ruggerson]

1. Cook usually errs on the side of being pretty cautious

so this is good news

[I_Make_Mistakes]

2. Lord, please let it be so! I have been praying for this before

Bush got selected!

[Captain Hilts]

3. He eats at Tastee Diner, Bethesda, so it MUST be right! nt

[Awsi Dooger]

4. For the first time we're the betting favorite to retake the House

Albeit narrowly, roughly 55-45%.

I don't know where he gets that rising toward 50/50 in the senate. That might be true needing +5, but +6 is a dramatically different story. We're still a 4/1 underdog to retake the senate. That basically hasn't budged and I doubt it will, unless Tennessee or Virginia show signs of moving our way.

[Stinky The Clown]

6. I think Tennessee *is* moving our way

Ford still has a ot of work to do and I'm not trying to be overly optimistic, but some of the pols recently have shown him actually in the lead. That poll may be an outlier, so it is still to early to break out confetti and champaign ... but I continue to be hopeful.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I agree that's the best chance for #6

Virginia will be mentioned, along with Arizona and even Nevada. But an open seat makes much more sense to me than trying to knock out another incumbent.

We should get a better idea where that race stands, now that Corker is officially the nominee.

It's not like Tennessee is an impossible state. I think Alexander won with 54% in an open race in 2002. That's less than the 56% Ensign got in an open race in 2000. Allen only received 52% in 2000, but that was while knocking out an incumbent.

[proud patriot]

5. Don't rest easy .. WORK WORK WORK

nothing comes easy