On to the next : What happens in Connecticut in the fall?

[demdiva]

Joe is on the Today Show right now saying he is running as an independent for sure.

"I am committed to this campaign, to a different kind of politics, to bringing the Democratic Party back from Ned Lamont and Maxine Waters to the mainstream. And for doing something for the people of Connecticut. That's what this is all about - Which one of us, Lamont or me, can do more for the future of our people here in Connecticut? And on that basis, I'm going forward with confidence, purpose, and some real optimism"

Tim Russert followed up with some analysis
- The largest voting block in CT are independents
- Democratic Party will support Lamont full out beginning today which will make it difficult for Lieberman
- Lieberman will need a lot of money and support from Republicans


Connecticut is a very blue state, but does Lieberman sticking it out mean that neither Lieberman nor Lamont will be elected? What happens now?

[MrBenchley]

1. The "Connecticut is a very blue state" meme

is very misleading. The GOP governor is coasting toward victory (the far left couldn't be bothered trying to defeat an actual Republican) and both Republicans and Independents there outnumber Democrats. Democrats can only win by building a coalition toward the center, and Lamont's supporters have burnt the bridge to the center/right of their own party.

Lamont can pull it out, but it's going to take tons of work...and his most vocal supporters won't help.

[demdiva]

2. My roommate and I were discussing this yesterday

not to generalize, but I just don't think of Connecticut as all that liberal.

[MrBenchley]

16. You're 100% right

Nor is it all that dovish--many major defense contractors are and have always been based in the Nutmeg state (which sometimes calls itself "the arsenal of Democracy").

[MercutioATC]

3. Dude, maybe take a small breather or something...

...this isn't healthy...

[demdiva]

4. Who me? I'm not a dude ....

[MercutioATC]

5. Look again...it was addressed to the post above yours.

[demdiva]

6. oh ok :) thanks!

[MercutioATC]

8. NP :)

There are just some recently-disappointed Lieberman supporters here who are a little bruised right now.

...my post was sincere. I understand what it feels like to support a candidate and have them lose. A short break is sometimes a healthy thing.

[demdiva]

9. I think it is a little sad. But I'm worried about keeping this seat!!!!

A three way with two democrats always worries me ...

[MercutioATC]

12. It's not a three way race with two Democrats.

It's a three-way race with a Dem, a Repub and an Indy.

BEFORE last night, in a 3-way poll, Lamont and Lieberman each drew 40% and the repub polled at 13%.

Now that we have a Dem nominee, I'd expect the Repub to increase a few points, Lieberman to drop by at least 10 points, and Lamont to pick up 8-10 points. Think of it this way...Democrats were split. They're not any more. Democrats will now vote for Lamont...he's the candidate.

Give it a week or two to let things shake out. I don't think you'll be as worried...

[demdiva]

14. hmmm...so if nobody gets 50% do they do a run off?

Let's say the Republican gets 20% and Lieberman and Lamont split the remaining vote and get 40% each. Then we get a third Lamont vs Lieberman election? This could be the most expensive race democratic race in history!!!!

[Smarmie Doofus]

20. No way ! The Nov. election is final in CT. just like....

everywhere else. Person with the most votes... even if it's thirty four % in a threeway... is the winnahh.

[JerseygirlCT]

18. You're wrong.

Unaffiliated voters are the largest group

Followed by Democrats

THEN Republicans.

You can keep saying this, but it still won't be so.

[JerseygirlCT]

19. Here: to put this idea to bed once and for all

As of October 2005 (including "inactives")

Republican registration: 453,715
Democratic: 699,502
Minor party: 4,387
Unaffiliated: 929,005

From the Secretary of the State
http://www.sots.ct.gov/ElectionsServices/lists/2005OctRegEnrollStats.pdf

[fasttense]

7. With 60% of American not supporting the war, Lamont can't lose.

The moderates have taken back the Democratic party. Moderates are no longer willing to watch our country torture, ignore the Geneva convention, invade sovereign nations based on lies, ignore the rule of law at a whim, allow a president to take complete control of government, encourage lobbyists to kill off the middle class. None of these issues are "extreme". They are moderate positions that appear extreme because this country has gone so far right.

Lieberman lost because he did not appeal to the moderates. When he runs as a republic, the world will know what a true neocon, extreme right politician he really is. He will lose again.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

10. Republican, Republican lite, or DEMOCRAT

that will be Connecticut in the fall.

[demdiva]

11. but which one WINS ???

I just don't want it to be the Republican !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

13. oh, clearly the Democrat

Lieberman will just go on and on reaching out to people who recoil from his approach. As the campaign wears on, it will become increasingly obvious that Joe has rejected the Democratic Party and it's ideals long ago. He can explain his support for the war, his telling everyone they have no right to criticize, his stand on Shiavo, his Supreme votes, his trade votes, etc.

[Acadia Blue]

15. Send$$$$ that you can afford to Lamont for attack ads against lieing

Lieberman

[JerseygirlCT]

17. One of them will be elected

That's the first thing.

The question is how much money and support Lieberman can count on from Republicans. I rather suspect a fair amount, in state, anyway.

The next is the actual voting. How many Dems does Lieberman take with him? And then it's up to the unaffiliated voters. The GOP voters will probably support Lieberman strongly.

Just my guess.

Between now and then, though, Joe could continue to go off the rails with his nastiness. That won't play well here at all, especially as he continues to sell himself as a moderate statesman.

Between now and then, Lamont needs to introduce himself more to the general population. The more they know, the more innoculated he is against Joe's not so subtle "Maxine Waters and Ned Lamont" snears. People need to get comfortable with the idea of Lamont.

The GOP candidate, unless he's forced out and replaced, is just not a real factor here. Even the GOP thinks he's a loser.

[RFKHumphreyObama]

21. If my memory serves me accurately

Third party candidates who are former Senators running for their seats after either being defeated in the primaries or because of some other reason usually do not win the seats they are contesting. But they do attract quite a following and the voting bloc that votes for the third party ex-Senator obviously takes quite a proportion of the vote away from one party or another

For example Thomas J Dodd (ironically the father of Lieberman's senate partner Christopher J Dodd and also even more ironically the occupant of the seat that Lieberman now holds) re-entered the Senate race after he had announced his retirement and the Democrats had nominated Joseph Duffy to contest the vacant senate seat. Dodd thus took away a considerable bloc of the Democratic vote which would have normally gone to Duffy and Lowell Weicker won the seat for the Republicans.

When Senator Jacob Javitz ran as a third party candidate against Al D'Amato after losing the 1980 New York senate primary, he actually took away a considerable proportion of votes which probably would have otherwise gone to Democrat Elizabeth Holtzman (though D'Amato also probably benefited from it being the year of the Reagan Revolution and New York going Republican)

I'm not sure what will happen here. My guess is that Lieberman will attract a sizable proportion of the vote but to whose disadvantage remains to be seen. I don't think he will win outright though