I am worried about the fall election for Connecticut

[LynneSin]

I'm 110% in the Lamont court, hey even if I didn't like the guy I would still support him because he's the democratic winner.

But that was a 4pt victory from Lamont based on this link here:
http://www.wfsb.com/politics/9641261/detail.html

Now the reason why Joe still has a 55%+ approval rating in Connecticut is simple - approval ratins are based on registered voters only. And we also know that the Republican candidate is a bit of a joke who would be lucky to get even 30%.

So to me, the threat is very real that Lieberman could feasibly win this thing in the fall because he very well could draw in the republican voters who realize that their candidate is an absolutely lost cause.

Am I the only one here with that kind of worry?

[cali]

1. Sure that's possible

The polling I've seen shows both Lamont and Lieberman at 40%. Lieberman could win in November, but I think the intervening months may well see an erosion of his support. He carries the stench of defeat now.

[Atman]

2. Not today. Today we DANCE!

Worry later. Celebrate a victory for a change!

[MercutioATC]

4. I'm with Atman! Wooohooo!

:toast:

:bounce:

:woohoo:

[kstewart33]

3. Lieberman will be favored to win. But

anything can happen between now and November. Let's celebrate for now!

[bigscott]

6. of course he will be favored

because the media will focus on how he is a "uniter" not a "divider", because the media will champion anyone that is close to the * administration, because the media is all for the status quo.

It is important for all of us in CT to celebrate Ned's victory but to realize that this is JUST THE BEGINNING - we have 2.5 months to make sure NED is our next Senator.

Congrats to all who helped Ned beat the BFEE's chosen one

[Vinca]

5. If Leiberman wins in November, it'll be like athletes who have taken

steroids breaking a record: there will be an asterisk after his name.

[vi5]

9. I loathe Joe, but I don't know how we can say that.....

For months we've been screaming at him to "respect the will of the democratic voters" and how democracy works and all of that. If he decides not to do that, it sucks but if he is able to get a majority of the voters of connecticut in a general election to vote for him as the representatives of their best interest then it's not really an asterick or a caveat. If he wins the election he wins the election. He does so as a betrayal of the political party he once called himself a member of, but an election is an election.

I can't believe I'm even saying this because I've loathed Leiberman since 2000 and almost didn't vote for Gore because of him. But if he wins the general election then he wins it.

[LynneSin]

16. The steriod comparison was wrong

I mean, unless it comes out that there was widespread voter corruption (which if there was, then why didn't Lieberman win the primary).

If Lieberman wins in the fall then he wins. There is no * next to his name because this was not our decision but the voters of Connecticut

[Vinca]

33. Scratch the asterisk. Make it a tiny rat face.

If party loyalty means nothing, it was a waste of the Connecticut taxpayers' monies (and a considerable amount at that)to run a primary. Lieberman should suck it up and support the winner.

[ps1074]

7. I think

There are lots of republicans and independets that will vote for Lamont over Joe. People are sick of the war and the lies of the administration.

If Ned can keep 70% of the democrats, he will be okay I think. Last I saw the state is split 45I - 30D - 25R. Someone said CT is not the blue state many people think it is. I don't agree with that statement. While the number of independent voters is very big indeed, they are much more responsive to the democratic message than they are to the republican message. It will be close but Ned can win this one.

[merh]

8. How do the primaries work in Conn?

if you voted Dem, can you now vote independent or republican?

[union_maid]

10. You can always vote any way you want

Like NY, you have to be registered in a party to vote in the primary. That never has anything to do with how you cast your vote in the general election. You can always cross party lines to vote.

[merh]

13. Then it appears there should be more of a concern for

leiberman that the votes will split between indies & repubs for him and dems will hold the party line to take congress.

Nothing is easy in politics, nothing is guaranteed. But leiberman is at the disadvantage, foresaking the party for his ego & will.

[LynneSin]

17. But will the Dems hold the party line

48% of the democrats decided that Lieberman was the right choice. Had that number been closer to 40% then I would have never started this post.

[merh]

21. IMHO, the votes for leiberman were not for the man, but the

position he held, senior senators have more power than junior, it was voting for that power held (so not to risk losing pork projects and favorite child status in the senate and on committees). It was the vote for the known. Now it will be the vote for the party and leiberman has turned on it. You and I both know, most independents vote against the war and the status quo (against those that support corporations, for big business, etc.) So, you will have republicans trying to decide if their going to vote party or against the anti-war movement.

They are the ones with the disadvantage. Nothing is a given in any race, Lamont knows that and has his work cut out for him, but leiberman is the one at the disadvantage now.

[Demit]

11. I agree with cali. I suspect Joe will not be running in November.

He'll be getting lots of talking-to by Dem leaders urging him not to. Plenty have already come out in support of Lamont. There is Nomentum for a Joe run. And where would he get his money? Unless the Repubs openly back him by withdrawing their weak candidate, but I really don't see that happening. Everybody smells a loser here. Everybody saw Joe's desperate demeanor in the last weeks of his campaign. I can't see him turning that around in the next three months.

[Jim__]

12. We should celebrate a victory of the people over the lobbyists.

It's a small victory right now. But, it can show people what they have the power to do. This is evidence that we can take our government back from the lobbyists. People need to wake up to that fact. Vote out all the corrupt bastards that dance to the lobbyists tune.

[LynneSin]

19. Enjoy it for today because the Lobbyists may be back this november

We have less than 3 months

[skipos]

14. Rasmussen had Joe 40%, Ned 40% in a three way race

and that was a poll taken before Joe was branded with loser status.

[Double T]

15. I agree with you, Lieberman is now an even more attractive........

candidate for senator to rethugs because he is an independent and NOT a Democrat. Joe's hardcore base combined with rethug independent votes could easily return Joe to his senate seat.

[CBHagman]

18. You're not alone, LynneSin.

You're obviously a big-picture and strategy person, and I couldn't agree more. What I truly worry about is how the numbers stack up, to say nothing of the strategic implications of dividing Democrats and/or creating ill will among the party. Schadenfreude and internecine warfare DO NOT win elections.

I actually looked at last night's results with some sadness, not because I wanted Lieberman to win but because I wanted him to do something other than scorn his fellow Democrats and make this thing all about himself.

And I felt even worse about some of my fellow DUers, who were echoing the GOP's "Sore Loserman" chant.

[LynneSin]

20. Had Lieberman's number been closer to 40% then I wouldn't be as concerned

We have some hard campaigning to do if we want to send Lamont to the Senate

[ChipperbackDemocrat]

22. LynneSin, BE NOT AFRAID!

No question about it, us folks in Connecticut are in for a scrap. But that's the way its always been for those who seek change for the betterment of the people. Its always a fight for us, that will never change.

But I am not afraid of the fall campaign...I'm not afraid because when I go out my front door in the morning I see a neighborhood full of Ned Lamont signs.

I see more and more bumper stickers on the cars, including mine...and I swore I'd NEVER put a political bumper sticker on my car.

I'm not afraid because of the line I saw at my polling place Tuesday morning...and most of those people voted for Ned.

I'm not afraid because of the steady stream of people at polling places I canvassed. I saw a lot of rather pissed off people who have their blindfolds removed and really seeing things as they are.

I don't fear Joe Lieberman running as an independent, in fact, I welcome it. If Joe Lieberman wants to end his career in embarassment, let him. Its his to destroy as he wishes. I would like it because it further repudiates the policies that should be brought on trial from Maine to Maui in 2006.

They call Ned Lamont "a one issue candidate". I have no problem with that because the way I see it, there is only one issue in this election campaign that really matters. The Mess-O-Potamia. We can't figure out much else, until we find solutions in this misbegotten 'war'. Ned's talked about a whole slew of issues, but he's tied them back to the central focus. Iraq has drained away any ability to handle the other problems we face as a country.

Today, there will be calls for "unity". I've heard all the Beltway boys talk about it. I'm sure the democratic leadership will discuss it. To me, Ned's focus shouldn't be so much on getting Lieberman's people on board. Many of them have been getting on board in the last month. More than you'd think.

The focus need to be and stay on all the newcomers who've joined the line. I'm talking about that vast majority who don't vote. Who believe that they have no stake in the game, yet the results of the game fall squarely on them. 30,000 new voters registered in part due to Lamont making a run. The way to victory lies in getting more of the disaffected and getting them to the polls.

Last night, I raised my glass Ned Lamont. Today, CELEBRATION OVER.

Mr Lieberman. You can run. I hope you do. But, You can't hide.

[kwolf68]

23. Hard to say

Some believe Slow-Joe will split the Dem votes in November...I happen to think he could do that with the Republican votes as well.

I think we are OK...

[formernaderite]

24. Why not do what the repubs do....let's support their repub candidate

I'll send him $25...if we strengthen him, Joe doesn't have a hope.

[deaniac21]

25. I wouldn't be surprised if repubs openly worked for Holy Joe in November.

[IronLionZion]

26. May the best man win

That's the best policy IMHO.

Meanwhile, the best Democrat won yesterday's primary and for that we should celebrate! :toast: :bounce: :beer: :headbang: :patriot:

If Connecticut is going to have either Ned or Joe as their next senator, then they have a good choice. Much better than PA IMHO, since we may get stuck with sick rick for 6 more years. For those single-issue latte drinkers among us, both Ned and Joe are pro-choice.

[demdiva]

27. I posted this earlier ... I agree with you

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2767292&mesg_id=2767292

But apparently the Republican challenger (I don't even know his name) is only at 13% right now. Of course this will probably change. My question is, if Joe does stick it out and neither of them gets 50%, will they have to do a runoff election between Joe and Lamont? That would be ridiculous!!!!

[demdiva]

28. dupe ... deleted

i'm getting a lot of posting errors here

[LincolnMcGrath]

29. He will rarely caucus with us after this point if he were to win, so why

act as if he will? With every word he speaks this morning he further alienates himself from Democrats. His whole shtick now is "I ain't them!"

He chose Joe. Let him wither on the Joementum vine.

Kick him to the curb.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

30. I think Lieberman is more likely to win than Lamont, but it's not certain.

A month ago I was certain that Lieberman would win the election, although I wasn't sure whether or not he'd win the primary, but it's become considerably less clear since then.

It's very hard to predict either whether the voters who supported Lieberman when he was the Democratic candidate will be loyal to man or to party, and also to what extent Republican voters will vote tactically.

If I had to guess, I would say that Lieberman will lose quite a lot of his usual supporters, but pick up more Republicans, and win narrowly, but I am in no way confident of that.

[fuzzyball]

31. My heart is with Lamont, my money is on Lieberman in November n/t

[Catchawave]

32. If CT had an open primary....Joe would have won

because republicans would have voted for him ! And repubs will definitely be voting this fall. :cry:

[Snivi Yllom]

34. no, I think Lieberman will win, perhaps by a 2-3 point margin

I think the Independents will break to Lieberman.

It's going to be a nasty fight, Lieberman going after Lamont.

Lamont should distance himself from Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson immediately.


the facts:

1,575,000 votes cast in the general election of 2004

yesterday's results
146,587 Lamont
136,468 Lieberman

If you assume the 2006 election turnout will be around 1 million votes, there are roughly 750,000 votes up for grabs.

[tulip]

35. It's in CT voters hands

As a party loyalist I support Ned 100% but Lieberman will probably stick with his run as an independent due to the small percent he lost by. At this point it's up to CT. But for now the focus should be spent getting Lamont elected.

[madfloridian]

36. So they should have kept Lieberman for fear that he would change parties?

The time is past for that kind of fear.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Lieberman has the much easier path

We can't kid ourselves in that regard. He has won elections before in Connecticut while receiving over 800,000 votes. In November, he'll need maybe half of that number to win. Last night was a tiny sample, 146,000 to 136,000.

Lamont apparently did great in areas where there are few Republicans. Those are motivated voters. Now he needs to energize the larger cities and convince them to vote for him and not the familiar name. Not an easy task. Lieberman is favored on the betting sites today and that will continue, minus poll numbers indicating Lamont far ahead.

The irony here is Lamont's task is much more difficult and complicated since the GOP nominee is so weak. I'm not sure Lamont wouldn't benefit from running a standard Dem vs. Rep campaign against Schlesinger, boosting Schlesinger's name ID and to head fake the Connecticut Republicans to look at Schlesinger as a viable option.

This is all about handicapping. Lieberman put himself in this position by being a pathetic handicapper/weakling by announcing the independent option. It's all but certain he would have won last night minus that incomparable traitorous gaffe. Now Lamont has to realize his fortunes are tied to what percentage Schlesinger receives. There is almost zero chance Schlesinger manages the 34% minimum he would need to steal the race. But Lamont dramatically benefits if Schlesinger receives maybe 25% of the vote and not 15-18%. It's all but certain those voters will disproportionately drift toward Lieberman, not Lamont, if they reject the nominee of their own party.

[GOTV]

38. It's time for CT Dems to get busy! n/t

[flaminbats]

39. underestimating the Republican is a mistake..

the Republican is counting on Lamont and Lieberman to tear each other apart. Lieberman plans to paint Lamont as the tree hugging commie and Lamont will paint Lieberman as the Bush pawn who can't accept defeat. This will allow the Republican to make promise after promise, yet remain unnoticed!

Democrats can't take this seat for granted, we've shown voters what Lieberman really is. But Democrats cannot lose focus on beating incumbent Republicans in other states to win back the Senate!

[cwhig]

41. In this case, the Republican is not a factor.

Alan Schlesinger is the classic Republican sacrificial lamb--a step up, it is true, from the last CT Republican senatorial candidate, the former mayor of Waterbury, who is now doing serious time for pedophilia and corruption. The current one is only guilty (so far) of problem gambling under a pseudonym. But, God help us, the Greens are running a candidate against Lamont--part of their never-ending, and highly successful, effort to convince the body politic that they are as completely stark raving nuts as the Judge Moore Ten Commandment zealots.

[wiggs]

40. Joe has an uphill climb, IMO

I think it's likely that Lamont will take the senate seat for the following reasons:

-Joe will get a lot of pressure from dems to drop out, making the question moot if he does drop

-The power and money of the DLC and dem infrastructure will get behind Lamont. Where will Lieberman get the money to run? He lost even while outspending Lamont 2:1. Will he have the same money advantage next time? Doubt it

-Will corporate money flow to Lieberman? If so, that should be a dem talking point making the need for replacement even more clear

-Joe really isn't that attractive to either party. Will republicans vote for him over their own guy?

-I doubt that the same 48% of dems that voted for him this time will stick with a losing, independent Lieberman next time. He will lose many more dems than republicans he will pick up

-I don't think things are going to get better in Iraq and the whole ME by next election. This reflects badly on Lieberman and the republican candidate

-Over the next three months, the need for change in every policy area will only become clearer

-Lieberman's ex-running mate, Gore, will endorse Lamont

-Lieberman can't help himself in the senate right now...his more liberal leaning votes will be seen as pandering and his more conservative votes will solidify voters' disdain

-The gloves are now off and pundits, writers, liberal dems can feel free to criticize his past stances since they know he is not on the same team anymore

-This loss, combined with a 2000 loss, brands him a loser. That will be hard to shake.

-Simply and most importantly: HE IS ON THE WRONG SIDE OF MANY ISSUES and a strong candidate who is not afraid to speak should easily be able to win on the issues.

[JerseygirlCT]

42. Nope. I share it.

I suspect our greatest hope lies in Dems remaining loyal to the party, and funding for Lieberman getting difficult to find now that he's not in the party.

But I do think a very large percentage of GOP voters will be voting for Lieberman.