Exit polls don't bode well for Lieberman's run as an Independent

[ProSense]

Among Lieberman voters, three out of four say they will support Lieberman again under those circumstances; 16% are not sure, and 6% say they will vote for Lamont. Lamont retains more of his voters; 88% of them say they would vote for him in November.

VOTE IN NOVEMBER IF LIEBERMAN RUNS AS AN IND.

All Voters
Lamont 49%
Lieberman 36
Not sure 12

Lieberman Voters
Lamont 6%
Lieberman 75
Not sure 16

Lamont Voters
Lamont 88%
Lieberman 1
Not sure 8

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/ctexitpoll.pdf

[SteppingRazor]

1. I want to know who's that one percent...

who voted for Lamont, but will vote for Lieberman if he goes Indy.

:wtf:

[kwolf68]

5. LOL

Yea really...no way to analyze that one.

[AndyA]

6. I heard it was Joe's wife...

:rofl:

[newsguyatl]

17. i was sittin here wondering the same thing

:wtf:

[KKKarl is an idiot]

27. ..

Who are these 1%? Did they fly in from Mars or Jupiter.

[calico1]

21. It's madness!

I voted for Lamont but I'll vote for Joe if he goes Indy? :wtf:

[LTR]

2. Notice the Rethug candidate is nowhere to be found?

Uhhh... what's his name again?

[11cents]

4. This is an exit poll of Democratic primary voters.

I don't think the GOP candidate will show up in it!

[LTR]

7. Yeah, but...

...I'm pretty sure there were some cons at the Democratic Primary polls, particularly if Loserman is running, and the GOP's got a lame candidate.

Perhaps some of those polled don't like to admit they're cons, and just answered "not sure".

[11cents]

8. As I understand it, CT doesn't have open primaries.

So Republicans would have had to actually change parties to vote. People often say they'll do that to influence the other party's primary, but in practice I think few committed partisans are willing to go through with it.

[skipos]

3. Who would vote for Lamont in the primary and Lieberman as

and indy? That makes no sense.

[The_Counsel]

9. It's Simple Really...

...those are the people who voted for Lamont to "send a message" to Lieberman, thinking Holy Joe would somehow win the primary and make the whole point moot. Now they plan on voting for their top choice: Lieberman.

Personally, I'm a little surprised that number wasn't higher.

Either way, I think Holy Joe is counting on a lot of votes that just don't figure to go his way in November. My early prediction goes something like this:

Lamont             41%
Lieberman          36%
Schlessinger     23%

Yeah, I know the GOPuke is polling in the low teens right now, but GOPukes stick together when it's all said and done. For the most part, they'll either vote for their own or sit it out.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. That looks like the best scenario for Lamont; Schlesinger receiving 23%

Anything in that range. Realistically, I would peg Lieberman's minimum at roughly 35%. Lamont's minimum is probably very close to that. Of the remaining 30%, Lamont is damaged with Schlesinger below the low to mid 20s, since those disloyal Republicans are more likely to break for Lieberman than Lamont.

Quite a balancing act for Lamont. And ironic that Lieberman is most despised by the far left, yet Republicans may decide this race, ones who really don't care for Lieberman but reluctantly vote for him since their own candidate is so weak.

I read today that Schlesinger got the voice vote nod for the GOP nomination only after Governor Rell's acceptance speech at the May nominating convention, and many people had left the building.

[Snivi Yllom]

18. not the point

it's those who did not vote in the primary that will decide this race

not the primary voters

Yesterday was perhaps 20% of the total # of voters who will vote in November.

[napi21]

10. I think Joe will loose voters between now and Nov.

Talking to voters last night was too soon. Wait a few days or weeks and see how many people see him as a traitor to his Party. Wait to see how many Dem voters who voted for Joe yesterday change their mind about him and decide to vote for the winner of the Dem primary!

I even heard a reporter on MSNBC reading an email he received that said "I don't believe Joe's web site was hacked. I think he just didn't buy enough bandwidth and it crashed!"

I still believe well see Joe back out of the campaign by mid Oct. when he realizes he doesn't have a chance to win!

[Snivi Yllom]

11. but those are tiny % of the available voters

If Lamont wants to win, he needs to run away from Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson.

I think Lieberman has a good of winning, probably by 2-3 points. The momentum has been with Lieberman the last few weeks closing a double digit deficit.

There are at a minimum 750,000 additional votes to be had, and I think the majority of those, many indy voters, will break to Lieberman. The underperforming GOP candidate is the wild card.

the facts:

1,575,000 votes cast in the general election of 2004

Assume at least a million votes are to be had, likely higher. That leaves 750,000+ votes up for grabs.

The so far poor performing and discredited GOP gambling junkie challenger is a wildcard in the equation.

yesterday's results
146,587 Lamont
136,468 Lieberman
33,000 aprox for third parties

Compare to 2000
Joseph Lieberman Democratic 828,902 63.21%
Phil Giordano Republican 448,077 34.17%

compare to Dodd in 2004
Christopher Dodd Democratic 945,347 66.35%
Jack Orchulli Republican 457,749 32.13%

compare to 2002 Gov race
John Rowland M. Jodi Rell Republican 573,958 56.11%
Bill Curry George Jespen Democratic 448,984 43.89%

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Lamont needs to find maybe 300,000 more votes

Minimum. Votes he's never received before.

Those are the same numbers I was looking at last night, raw totals from previous statewide elections, compared to the primary last night. It appeared to be more of an uphill climb for Lamont than I projected.

I don't understand the headline of this thread. If Lieberman indeed maintains 3/4 of his primary supporters, and a corresponding number of Democrats who favored him last night but did not vote, he is a living cinch to win. Lamont requires much more party loyalty than that.

I saw a post on Kos today from a respected poster that I agreed with, that Lamont needs at least 70% of the Democratic vote and needs to hope Lieberman doesn't get more than 50-55% of the Republican vote. Then Lamont can win a squeaker if independents break for him. If Schlesinger somehow outperforms the current expectation among Republicans, it only benefits Lamont. That's why I think Lamont needs to campaign against Schlesinger to bump his legitimacy, possibly infuriating enough Republicans to back their nominee even if it's hopeless..

[Snivi Yllom]

15. more than that

the winner will have to add more than 500,000 votes to the primary total

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Depends on how many Schlesinger receives

And what the turnout is.

I was admittedly being conservative with the 300,000+. But I think you are high with the 500,000. In a 3-way split I doubt it will take 600,000+ votes to win. Maybe in a presidential year, but not in a midterm.

It only takes 600,000+ if Schlesinger gets stuck in the low teens, not likely in a heated primary.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. The exit polls confirm Lieberman had the late momentum

54-44 advantage among those deciding in the last three days.

Surprised me. I wasn't sure those polls with the double digit Lamont lead were reliable, nor the supposed tightening of the race.

[snowbear]

19. That wasn't momentum... it was gas..

[snowbear]

14. Wolfie Boy Blitzer said he'll be showing another new poll within the hour

He didn't say who conducted the poll, or what the exact question was.. just that it had to do with Lieberman running as an Independent.

Should be interesting to see if CNN's poll differs much from the CBS poll.

[krkaufman]

20. But doesn't "all voters" mean Democratic voters?

If this info is based on exit polls, then it doesn't accurately represent all the voters of Connecticut.

Also, the exit polls don't reflect the lack of support for Joe from the Democratic Party. November is a long way off.

[Jack Rabbit]

23. No, I think it would mean Republicans, too

I believe they went to the polls yesterday, just like Democrats.

At least it works that way in California.

[krkaufman]

24. Right. But in what relative proportion?

There wasn't a major Republican primary for the Senate seat as there was for the Dem slot (record turnout), so the exit poll results likely don't reflect this November's voting demographic mix.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. The GOP primary yesterday was very minor

I looked at the numbers and there were only a few thousand votes in the GOP races, some with mere hundreds: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2006/by_state/CT_Page_0808.html?SITE=CTHARELN&SECTION=POLITICS

For some reason they had a nominating convention in May, instead of a full primary. So I think these exit polls are virtually 100% Democrats.

[sandnsea]

30. Click Link - Democratic Primary Voters n/t

[demdiva]

25. No August #s, but Joe's approval ratings are not bad at all statewide

[LynneSin]

26. oops - delete please

xxxx

[illumn8d]

28. Yeah, but they just get another ballot, right?

They had other stuff to vote on.

[lonehalf]

31. I don't think we should be looking at polls

Especially this early.

And especially "Exit" polls.

DUers should remember that Exit Polls had Senator Kerry elected in 2004.

And I remember that exit polls in Georgia have been so inaccurate over the last ten years that they are laughable.