As usual, the pundits are wrong -- again

[Le Taz Hot]

The pundits (and many chicken little DUers) are predicting a Republican victory in CT this fall. The theory is that Lieberman will split the Democratic vote allowing the Republican to win the seat. As usual, they're miles off the mark.

Here it is: Most of Lieberman's support will come from moderate Republicans who cannot stomach the sacrifice candidate the Republicans have put up (they didn't see a Lamont win coming -- hence the sacrifice candidate). Lieberman is now anathema -- no self-respecting public figure Democrat can cozy up to him now. Lamont won the nomination and he is the democratic candidate. That's it. The vast majority of Democrats won't vote for him because a) they're sick of him being a sycophant to the Bush regime and b) what little character he had left was sacrificed by announcing he would be a third-party candidate, ignoring the wishes of CT Democrats. The bottom line, Joe will pull more from the Republicans than from the Democrats as he is closer to their views than to ours.

Here's my prediction: Lamont will come in 1st, Republican candidate (can't remember his name) comes in 2nd and Mr. Joementum comes in a humiliating 3rd.

[aquart]

1. I think you're right. It's not usually the case, but this time it is.

Joe's attempt to play spoiler will only screw him.

[ThomCat]

2. I think so too.

He has more republicans endorsing him than Dems, so he's going to pull more republican votes.

[Jack Rabbit]

3. I think you basically have it

However, the polls show that Lieberman will probably finish second.

[gratuitous]

11. Give the polls a little time

Now that the three-way race among Lamont, Lieberman and Schlesinger has passed from the hypothetical to the reality stage, a lot of people who formerly supported Lieberman will smell the stench of losing on him. There will be some Lieberman voters who will stand by their man until the bitter end, but the perception and the reality are that Joe has lost two of his last three elections (not counting his abortive 2004 presidential run), and folks don't much like being associated with a loser.

As the shock of the primary fades and reality sets in, a lot of folks who claimed they'd vote for Lieberman in a hypothetical three-way race come November will switch their allegiance to the guy who just whipped Lieberman in the primary.

Joe will not have several built-in advantages in the general: The Democratic establishment is already treating him like "Joe Who?"; he won't be getting any party money for his quixotic run; Republicans are going to have their own worries in November and Joe isn't going to be among them, so he shouldn't look for financial or logistical support from that quarter; and the big corporate dollars aren't dumb -- they won't be flowing into Joe's election coffers, either.

Lieberman's making brave noises now, mostly I think for the sake of his supporters. But he's whistling a tune as he staggers past his own political graveyard. I don't think he'll be able to run a serious general election campaign, but he may just be spiteful enough to stay in until the very bitter end.

[snowbear]

4. Not all the pundits... I've heard all kinds of angles on the win.

I don't do Faux.. so I have no clue how they're spinning Lamont's win, but I've seen pundits on CNN & MSNBC talk about how this has put the fear of God into Incumbents; especially Republican Incumbents.

Bill Schneider actually gave a pretty fair assessment of how this will energize and unite Democrats.

I guess it's being spun every way it can be spun.. and how you hear it is who you happening to be listening to at the time? :shrug:

[calimary]

7. How did bill schneider look on camera?

If it was like death warmed over, if that smarmy little smirk was off his face and he looked like an undertaker, then it's TERRIFIC news. He's the world's worst poker player. It's all over his face as though it were lit with neon. If he's looking somber about this, rather than snarky and twinkle-eyed, it means he and his other American Enterprise Institute brotherhood of vermin are scared sick. And that's good for the rest of us.

I think the momentum is with Ned AND friends - AND converts, and me-too's, and others who WILL see the light and read - WITH COMPREHENSION - the writing on the wall. I think by November, there will be a serious demoralization as the perception of loser stench settles in heavily with the GOP. I think they know their necks are on the block, because Iraq isn't just suddenly going to get magically better. The Middle East is not just magically going to settle down because contradicta burbles and stutters a few things about diplomacy. And as they grow further demoralized, they'll be devolving deeper and deeper into disarray. You'll hear it all over the place, in mentions large and small. There'll be a bunker mentality/gloom settling over the White House and we may even see little dribs and drabs about bush drinking again, or some such thing. Watch the cocky attitudes fade like the last traces of green from fallen leaves. Watch the bad publicity grow and build upon itself. bush may even try a Hail Mary play of bringing some troops home as an October surprise to manipulate the vote. But by then, I suspect, the momentum will be so huge that it'll be unstoppable.

Look, I already saw it out here in California from Jane Harman and DiFi. Jane Harman never saw a bush maneuver she didn't like, in the intelligence committee, and never said much more than peep about registering objections or voicing outrage or trying to offer any opposition. Then all of a sudden strident anti-war challenger Marcy Winograd arrives on the scene, and all of a sudden, Jane gets religion. Dianne Feinstein altered her approaches a little, also. As they parse THIS, the Miracle of Connecticut, they'll be forced to stand up, and stand for something - for a change, instead of trying to dance their way around the issues for fear of upsetting the tide they still thought was unstoppable in bush/rove's favor. This will - um - shall we say - INSPIRE them to stand up and act like Democrats.

It's the tonic we need! And THANK GOD! Because Cynthia McKinney didn't fare well yesterday, and you KNOW if Ned Lamont had failed, the punditry ALL OVER TV, radio, and print would be nonstop about how bush got a new lease on life and it proved that to go against him and speak up too much against the war is political suicide. Ned Lamont spared us all that. Most of 'em won't even get around to the McKinney issue for awhile, because this is too splashy a story. It will blunt the impact of Cynthia's troublesome (and I suspect FISHY) loss.

[snowbear]

8. How did Bill Schneider look?

Hmm..

Well.. unlike Melman of the RNC, he looked like he slept last night.


The only grim outlook he gave was to the Rethugs over the Lamont win.. :shrug:

Actually, if there were any righties listening to his assessment, I'd say they were mighty disappointed in him!

[GrantDem]

10. Spin is right... here is a email press release from the RNC --->>>

In politics, there are turning points that can define a political party for decades to come. Yesterday's defeat of Senator Joe Lieberman in the Democrat primary in Connecticut is such a moment. Because he stood for a strong national defense and victory in Iraq, Joe Lieberman was successfully targeted for defeat.

For a political party to reject a respected Senator who just six years ago was its candidate for Vice President is virtually without precedent. It speaks volumes about the new Democrat Party: if you stand for a strong defense and victory in the War on Terror, you have no place in the party and you must be purged.

Watch the video and get the facts about what this means about the decline of the Democrat Party - from leadership that would "pay any price, bear any burden" to defend freedom to leaders who want to cut and run from the War on Terror, and surrender other tools needed to keep America safe.

The message from Connecticut is clear, and Ned Lamont isn't alone. He is joined by Rep. John Murtha, architect of the Democrats' position on Iraq and the man who wants to be the next House Majority Leader, who claims America is more dangerous than Iran and North Korea and says, "We've become the enemy." And by Howard Dean, who calls the idea of victory in Iraq "just plain wrong." Watch how the new Democrat Party always chooses weakness over strength, blaming America first.

With 90 days to go before the election, National Democrat leaders have made their choice in favor of defeatism, isolationism, and blaming America first. Where do you stand?

Sincerely,


Ken Mehlman
Chairman, Republican National Committee

[Exultant Democracy]

5. You hit the nail on the head Traitor Joe's goose is cooked.

[tech3149]

6. I agree as well

What the talking heads and political big-wigs don't realise is that we are living in a new day. It's time for the people to have control over their own destiny. It may only be the first step in a long journey, but the fear of not reaching our goal are behind us. The task can only be made easier by sharing the load with those around us that are willing and able to understand what it means. We lost our way long ago and it may take time to get back on the path, but we will get there.

[rep the dems]

9. I think and hope you're right.

With any luck, some of the people who voted for Lieberman yesterday will not take fondly to his running as an Independent and vote for Lamont. I can't imagine whatever Republican is the nominee up there will win; Connecticut is pretty much a solid blue state.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. No one is predicting a Republican victory

Mehlman wouldn't even endorse Schlesinger on Hardball today. Matthews was basically making fun of him for that. Schlesinger is trading at 2% in the betting odds. That's lower than Katherine Harris.

Joe will finish hundreds of thousands of votes ahead of Schlesinger.

[Le Taz Hot]

13. Oh, hocky puck!

Of course they are. Even today I'm reading here on DU all about how this is going to split the Democratic vote, yada yada yada. Many of the punditocracy are saying the same thing (don't ask me to name names, they all look/sound alike to me).

And where, prey tell, do you think all of these 100's of thousands of votes for Joe will come from? He's pretty much a Democratic party leper at this point. If anything, as stated in the OP, he'll pull from Republicans who can't bring themselves to vote for Schlesinger (thanks for reminding me what his name was, btw).