How will Lieberman's primary supporters vote in November -- exit poll data

[dolstein]

More on Those Exit Polls
CBS News posted extensive analysis of the exit polls we reported on earlier.

Key takeaway: "Lieberman kept it close by capturing the votes of those who made up their minds in the last few days of the campaign, closing a gap that had been much wider."

New detail: "In a hypothetical three-way race against Lamont and Schlesinger, Lamont would earn 49% of the votes of these Democratic primary voters, and Lieberman would receive 36%. Among Lieberman voters, three out of four say they will support Lieberman again under those circumstances; 16% are not sure, and 6% say they will vote for Lamont. Lamont retains more of his voters; 88% of them say they would vote for him in November."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/08/09/more_on_those_exit_polls.html

Actually, that's a lot better than I thought. 75% are say they're sticking with Joe, and only 6% have definitely bailed on him. The rest are undecided. Joe probably only needs around 35% support from Democrats in the general election to win.

[napi21]

1. I don't think it will be a 2 way in Nov!

I bet Joe won't be able to raise money and will have to drop out! Even before I remembered the money, I figured Joe would drop out by mid Oct because he would realize he had no chance of winning!

[Boo Boo]

6. It is being reported that Rove called Lieberman after he lost last night

and said that the President wants to help any way he can. Today Mehlman (RNC) declined to endorse the Republican candidate, so I'm not so sure Joe is going to have trouble raising money. He also had a 12 million dollar warchest going into the race---has he spent all that? And the folks (Insurance corporations, etc.) that filled that chest, are they going to stop filling it if they believe Lieberman has a chance? I doubt it. The most one could hope for is that they contribute to both Lieberman and Lamont to hedge their bets.

The Repub talking point is that Lamont represents the radical left, and Lieberman has been hammering on that meme as well. Lamont probably made Liberman's next attack ad for him last night by appearing on stage with, and then shaking the hand of, Al Sharpton. I expect Rove will (or already has) given himself the assignment of securing a win for Lieberman in Nov.

Lamont's job will be to make damn sure that it doesn't go unnoticed by Conn. voters.

[napi21]

7. Last I heard, Joe has $2 mill of that money left.

I don't know if the Pubs are going to finance him or not, but I'd bet Ned is keeping his eye on those contributor reports that have to be filed! Sure would be a great campaign spot to show all Joe's money is coming from Pubs, wouldn't it?

[ananda]

2. This polling is not very optimistic..

.. for Lamont and sounds pretty positive for Joe.

Can Lamont pull it off in November? That's when
it counts.

[calico1]

3. This was the exit polling.

it will be interesting to see how those who voted for Lieberman, especially the ones who decided last minute will feel about him once his Republican backing is made more public, not to mention the ass he has made of himself.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. He won't keep 75% of those who voted for him yesterday

Keep in mind those people are being surveyed before knowing the result, in a very competitive race. Naturally they are going to say, of course I'll stick with the guy I just voted for minutes ago.

But he doesn't need 75% of them to win. dolstein has it about right, 35% of total Democrats will be plenty, in fact probably somewhat less than that.

Looks like the blogs and the pundits are overestimating yesterday's result in regard to impact on the likely voting tendencies and preference of the independents and Republicans in Connecticut. They will decide this race, not Democrats. Simply the reality of a split vote among two Democrats.

Connecticut is basically split 8-6-4, in terms of independents, Democrats, and Republicans. That's an easy way to remember it. So Lamont has 6 shares of 18 working in his favor. But in this case, if he loses 1/3 of that 6 to Joe, he only has 4 shares among 18. Hardly a great head start. And that leaves Lieberman with 2, with a fight for the remaining 12. Schlesinger will never get his normal split and quite a bit of that is likely to go to Lieberman and not Lamont. Who knows among independents? They voted 58-41 for Kerry in 2004. So you have Democratic leaning independents, but does that mean they'll back Lamont by that margin? I'd like to be more optimistic but unless Lieberman abandons his indy run the numbers still make him the favorite.

[dolstein]

5. Before knowing the result? Are you kidding?

The polls released right before the election showed Lamont ahead by double digits. I seriously doubt many Lieberman supporters went to the polls confident of victory. If anything, the surprisingly close result might make his supporters even more likely to stick with him.