Huff. Post - Lawrence O'Donnell: Joe Lieberman Will Drop Out.

[Pirate Smile]

Lawrence O'Donnell

Joe Lieberman Will Drop Out.

Joe Lieberman will drop out. He probably knows right now that the day will come in late September when he will announce his withdrawal from the race. No one is going to have to talk him into it. By that time, the Democratic Party power structure will be doing its thing for Ned Lamont and Lieberman will be trailing by double digits.

It won’t be a hard decision for Lieberman. He will drop out to avoid career-ending humiliation.

Lieberman came within four points of Lamont by climbing up on the shoulders of the biggest names in the party including Clinton—Bill and Hillary. Lieberman’s TV commercial starring Bill Clinton was his best. Now, both Clintons and everyone else in the Party are carrying Lamont on their shoulders. By late September, Bill Clinton will be onstage hugging his new best friend and starring in Lamont commercials. Connecticut’s much better liked senator, Chris Dodd, will be campaigning for Lamont this time. The Clinton and Dodd defections will cost Lieberman ten points in Connecticut. If Dick Cheney continues to say nice things about Lieberman, it’ll cost him another ten points. And Lieberman campaigning alone, all alone, will look bitter, very bitter. His smile will look faker than ever. Voters aren’t drawn to bitter.

Lieberman is going to have one very big news day in late September and he’ll milk it for all its worth. That’s all his independent candidacy is going to be about—stage-managing his own exit. He didn’t want an eighteen year Senate career to disappear under ‘Lamont Wins’ headlines. He wanted his own news day, his own headline. He knows how and when to get it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/joe-lieberman-will-drop-o_b_27006.html

[Sam Odom]

1. NOT if the polls show Joe with a chance to win n/t

n/t

[bigwillq]

2. Yeah but the point of that post is

that Joe won't be ahead and won't have a chance to win in late September.

[Sam Odom]

3. Well yeah, But

Joe's ego is the only thing driving him now. If he is within striking distance (6pts) of Lamont he will stay to the end.

[snowbear]

6. Joe's polls will head on a downward trend soon.

You'll see.

Besides.. he's giving Hillary heartburn already.

[FrenchieCat]

4. Makes perfect sense to me.....

To go from Almost Vice President and career politician to losing a primary as an incumbent can't feel really too good.

Joe knows that the momentum is with Lamont!

Lawrence O'Donnell is one of the few that appears to understand politicians better than most!

[dolstein]

5. Sounds like wishful thinking to me

This is, for all practical purposes, a two candidate race between Lamont and Lieberman. The Republican candidate is polling in single digits and has gotten no support from his own party.

It's hard to imagine Lamont building a double digit lead over Lieberman. Kerry beat Bush by ten points, and Lieberman is going to run much stronger than Bush ever could among Democrats and independents.

Furthermore, what would the Democrats expect to accomplish by sending all their starts into the state to campaign for Lamont? That's Lieberman's not a real Democrat? If that were true, then why did they all endorse Lieberman in the first place? Moreover, these efforts won't do a damn thing to boost Lamont's standing among independents. It could even hurt, but making Lamont look more like a tool of the party establishment. Moreover, it's hard to imagine the national Democratic Party pulling out all the stops for Lamont when the race will have no impact whatsoever on control of Congress.

[w4rma]

22. dolstein, in the years you've been posting here, I cannot remember a

single time where the tactics you have supported have resulted in a win for your candidate. I think you are wrong yet again.

[Exultant Democracy]

24. If by some magic the electorate from 2004 was to vote

then what you say would of course be true. Time though has moved forward and that ten point spread is nothing. Lieberman will have no chance of finding enough pro-war pro-bush votes in CT in November (unless there is another 9-11) even 40% of the republicans are anti-Bush anti-war and that was from a poll more then three weeks old, but the trend was very clear. There is no way Joe finds the money in-state to win, and no way he wins if is money is all from out of state republicans.

[martymar64]

30. Joementum's "friends" will contribute to his demise

Friends like O'Reilly, Hannity, Coulter, Dead Eye Dick, etc.

The more they support Joe, the lower his numbers will go. The downward spiral started prior to the primary and will continue.

[wisteria]

32. Interesting points, but I hope they turn out to be incorrect.

Are Republicans actually going to vote for Lieberman? I doubt it.He is still a Democrat.
Do most independent voters in CT lean conservative? I think not.
Those opposed to the war here in the US stands at 60%.Does CT buck the national trend on this issue and support the continued conflict? No!
Bush's approval rating stands at around 40%. Part of Lieberman's problem is his close association with Bush. Does CT approve of Bush and his policies? I don't think so.
So why do you assume Lieberman will have more appeal than Lamont? Right now, the Repubs are playing this as pro Lieberman because they want him to remain in the race as a spoiler.By promoting him and playing to Lieberman's large ego, they keep him hanging on as a pawn to hang over the Dem's. As time progresses, Lieberman is going to have a difficult time maintaining support and money. I doubt Republicans are going to continue supporting his campaign-they will do so just long enough to stroke his ego and keep him thinking he has a chance, so they can use him against the opposing Democrats. The seat is going to a Democrat one way or another. Lieberman isn't that much help to them as a Democratic Senator, but right now, well hell,he is the latest Zell Miller. They hope to use him to assist in turning around public opinion.

[Reckon]

7. I agree with the OP.. n/t

[madame defarge]

8. Not if Joe's new best friend has anything to say...

KKKarl Rove is on the case now & he has already promised to help in anyway he can. They'll work hard to get Joe elected because they know the Republican candidate isn't going to win. And Joe's as good as they're going to get. Just MHO...

[calmblueocean]

9. Geez, man, don't jinx it!

Honestly, I don't think Joe will resign. He is a political animal, and more than most politicians, he absolutely loves being in power. That's one of the reasons he dances this dance between Democrat and Republican. He loves it when people are talking about him. He loves playing the political godfather, being able to bestow his favors on whomever he chooses. I can't say at this point what will happen, but I feel sure that it's going to take some absolutely devastating polling before Joe drops out.

[tularetom]

10. I have a lot of respect for O'Donnell but

I don't believe Joe is gonna drop out. This would be a normal reaction in the reality-based universe or even in O'Donnell's "West Wing", but Loserman has always shown an astounding inability to confront reality. I remember the primary season of 04 when everybody was snickering about his single digit poll ratings, but Loserman appeared on the ABC punditfest and announced the birth of Joementum. You could call him an incurable optimist but I think he is seriously disturbed.

[Hardrada]

15. Now that you mention this, I think so too.

He is so delusional you have to do some serious reality-checking after listening to him for any length of time. Give him a month in a rubber room and see if he sounds a bit less Outer Space when he is let out.

[texpatriot2004]

11. Lieberman's political career is over! NM

[Cocoa]

12. Pat Buchanan made a good point

he said Joe will have to go negative on Lamont, and that's going to make Joe look very very bad.

[Sam Odom]

13. Rove will use Schlesinger as the attack dog

Lieberman wont have to be neg

[The Wolf]

18. I don't doubt that for a second

But wouldn't the effect of using Schlesinger as the attack dog on Lamont be minimal since the RNC looks scared shitless to pool full support on this man? Why not use Lieberman's ego and his ability to get TV cameras to his ass as the conduit to launch his latest round of bullshit on Lamont? I watched Mehlman on "Hardball" as I was working out this afternoon and he looked completely uncomfortable when the topic of supporting Schlesinger in this race was mentioned. If they had any hope he could screw this race up in any fashion, Mehlman would've used that delusionary crap he utilized in '04 and not be as nervous and not look as horrible as he did. Besides, I've always thought Rove hooks behind candidates with at least a theoretical shot at winning. With his baggage, Schlesinger doesn't seem to me to fit Rove's criteria to be the mindless attack dog. Then again, with Rove, I wouldn't be surprised if he started giving Schlesinger some of his tried and true bullshit in the next couple of weeks. I just think he'd used someone who hasn't polled around the mid to upper 10's for months now.

[tblue37]

21. Joe has already gone negative on Lamont , AND on

the Democratic Party, AND on the majority of Americans who disapprove of the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

[dweller]

14. self-importance, once again the downfall

of the human condition.

joe could do himself a favor, and accept with one ounce of integrity that his time is done, and bow out gracefully.

too bad he can't see beyond his own self.
dp

[Fozzledick]

16. Now if you could just convince Lieberman of that!

[oasis]

17. Articles like that are liable to make Joe even more stubborn. (n/t)

[fooj]

19. Joe didn't get a bump after Clinton.

He gained six points the day BEFORE the election. Go figure.

[regnaD kciN]

20. An easy explanation...

Lieberman took in a ton of cash in the last week of the campaign, and saturation-bombed the airways with ads over the last weekend.

[global1]

23. Joe Will Also Realize That The Repugs Are Using Him.......

that will become more evident to him after the 'fog of campaigning' and his loss finally hit home.

He'll also realize that he'll be able to get a job on Faux News Channel as the token Democrat. He'll do alright.

[JerseygirlCT]

26. You think?

He hasn't, apparently, in the past 6 years of service.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. I like Lawrence O'Donnell but I think he's way off here

Lamont might lead Lieberman by double digits if it was all-Democrats again. But this is a full field general election.

It's like winning a semifinal heat of the 1500 meters and you expect the same race to unfold in the final. Meanwhile, it's not the same field or strategy or pace.

O'Donnell's arguments make much more sense with a viable Republican nominee. How are you going to get all these 10 point swings with a candidate like Schlesinger in the race? Much of Lieberman's support are voters who would normally back the Republican. They aren't headed to Lamont in droves, no matter how bitter or broke Lieberman is.

Lamont's trend line has been takeoff upward for months, other than the final days against Lieberman. There's a natural air brake there. You're not going to gain and gain...

Lamont can win but if so it will be very close, and with Schlesinger significantly higher than his current pennies percentage.

[AtomicKitten]

27. I suspect Lieberman may see the light as well.

An independent bid is a disgrace. Maybe he's not bereft of all dignity and reason. We'll see.

[Totally Committed]

28. Joe needs to go NOW.

But, barring that -- I hope O'Donnell is at least right about THIS, at least.

Lieberman is being such and ego-monster about this.

TC

[NastyRiffraff]

29. I wish he were right, but...

I'm afraid he's wrong. Joe is already ignoring (private) pleas from big Dems. He's of course ignoring the support they're giving Lamont, knowing where his own support is coming from (hint: it's not the Dems).

Joe will be the defacto Republican candidate. Yes, I agree that his numbers will go down by September, and the hapless Shlesinger may pull away minute numbers from Joe. Hard to say, in the end, what the result will be. A lot of independents....a huge bloc in CT...switched their registrations to Dem for the primary, but we don't have numbers as to what their percentages were in votes for each candidate.

Rove, of course, will be advising the Lieberman campaign from behind the scenes, and I suspect there'll be some money-laundering going on.

But please, let's not call Joe a Democrat any longer. EVERY TIME he calls himself an "independent Democrat" he should be called down on it, hard.

[leesa]

31. I agree. He will have no choice.