Mason Dixon Poll: Ensign leads Carter in Nevada, 54-33

[Awsi Dooger]

Myself and a few others questioned the 7 point gap in the recent Rasmussen poll. It just didn't to seem to fit the race, implying the margin was identical to the competitive open seat governors race. I've lived in Las Vegas since the '80s.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Aug-12-Sat-2006/news/9022253.html

"More Nevadans know Jack Carter today than four months ago, but the president's son turned Democratic Senate candidate is still far from giving the Republican incumbent a competitive run.

According to a new Review-Journal poll, if the general election were held today, Sen. John Ensign would attract 54 percent of the state's votes. Almost a quarter, 23 percent, of Democrats would vote for him, as would half of Clark County, a Democratic stronghold.

Thirty-three percent of voters statewide said they'd vote for Carter, and 13 percent were undecided."

Ensign is not unpopular here, which is why Oscar Goodman stayed out of the race and Harry Reid has been less than assertive. IMO, this is the relevant quote from the article:

"But Erik Herzik, a University of Nevada, Reno political science professor, said it'll be hard to turn Ensign's base when the senator hasn't alienated anyone but liberals.

"People are not dissatisfied with John Ensign, and that's another problem Carter has. His only issue is: I don't like George Bush. Well, George Bush isn't on the ballot. John Ensign is," Herzik said."

[NVMojo]

1. ...depressing, Ensign is a Bush lapdog ...where are the Dems for this?

[saltpoint]

2. Well that isn't very encouraging. I honestly don't know much about

Carter but Ensign is a brain-dead moron and it would be a sweet thing to grab that seat from the Republicans.

[adriennui]

4. it's possible carter isn't the brightest bulb

and you just said you know nothing about carter's opinions other than diliking bush.
lamont won because he had clearly articulated views, carter will lose because he is a zero.

[saltpoint]

8. Well I would vote for Carter were I a Nevada voter, not only because

I dislike Ensign/Bush, but because the promise of an untested Democrat beats the disgrace of a compromised Republican any day.

And I'd love for us to get a stronger foothold in the West going into 2008 and beyond.

[kestrel91316]

3. Trust me, 'cause I knew the man in school: John Ensign is just a pretty

face. All hat, no cattle. Not a rocket scientist.

Rich daddy and mommy set him up in practice, and funded his political career. He is a Vegas Money puppet.

But though he is not bright, he IS a US Senator, and therefore a powerful man. Pity. Nevada, my home state, deserves MUCH better.

[snowbear]

5. Why is he so popular there?

What is it they like so much about him?

I don't know the guy, so I'm curious..

[Awsi Dooger]

9. He has the right stands on the issues Nevadans pay attention to

Ensign has not rocked any boats with the high profile issues. He opposed Yucca Mountain and all the anti-gaming issues, like the McCain bill that would have banned legal wagering on college sports in Nevada.

It's a current huge built-in advantage for a Nevada Republican. You can rubber stamp the right wing agenda but as long as you do the right thing on the handful of issues that make headlines, you're fine.

[The Wolf]

13. You hit it right on the nail, Dooger!

Ensign is basically a Republican robot. Always has, always will be. I heard awhile back that he was trying to squirm up higher in the GOP pecking order, which sends me into a great fright at the thought of it. I got the feeling of his arrogance when he stumped at UNR when I was 12 or 13. He knows when to oppose the politically profitable thing and when to shut the fuck up when the big boys in the party are speaking. It doesn't hurt the fact that most Republicans will echo the bile of O'Crappy and the PigMan on a daily basis. You'd be surprised the type of shit you can find out of Nevada Republicans on the Letters to the Editor page here in Reno (someone actually wrote that he didn't get the big deal behind the Mel Gibson controversy).

[kestrel91316]

11. Beats hell out of me. I thought he was smarmy in 1980-81 and I STILL

think he's smarmy.

But then I'm in So Cal and he's in Vegas/DC so I am out of the loop, I suppose.

[iamjoy]

6. That's Why He Wins

If he doesn't do much, he doesn't piss any one off. Just sits up there and looks pretty.

I kind of think Charlie Christ (Florida) is like that.

[Clark2008]

7. The Mason-Dixon poll seems to be an outlier that favors Republicans.

I know that they've never been correct - or even close - in predicting the winners in my state (TN).

[OzarkDem]

10. Yep, poll results for hire n/t

[Toots]

12. I am surprised by this because people are not happy with the direction of

America and most Americans truly like and respect Jimmie Carter and I would think some of that would wear off on his son...I know nothing about Jack Carter other than who his father is but that means a lot just by itself...:shrug:

[featherman]

14. Well, you're closer to it than I am here in CA, Awsie.

But I do find it disappointing if the Rasmussen poll is the outlier here. No chance of Carter getting a little more traction? Sounds like he is still not broadly known and the money gap doesn't look good. I keep waiting for more of a (long-predicted) pro-Dem demographic trend to kick in there in both NV and AZ. Gotta at least be a shift among Indies with the low Bush and GOP (generic) numbers coming as they are nationally.
Sigh!

[Awsi Dooger]

15. I think 9/11 slowed down that Emerging Democratic Majority shift

Looks like Hispanic males moved somewhat to the GOP due to national security concerns. I can't find my link but it was something like 7% change. The good news was no indication Hispanic women changed.

Admittedly, the samples and conclusions have been disputed due to different exit poll indications. The NEP had 44% hispanics voting for Bush in '04 but others, even those working for the company, think it was closer to 40%. We'll know more after November.

The influx in Nevada hasn't been limited to hispanics. Many high income westerners are relocating to Las Vegas due to jobs and no state income tax. There are major developments going up nonstop in northwest Clark County, heading toward Mt Charleston.

Carter will gain somewhat. If that Mason Dixon poll is correct and he is even in Clark County, then no way he loses statewide by 21 points. That's not the logical breakdown. He would lose by 10-15. But to win the state he needs at least a +6 or +8 coming out of Clark County, and I just can't see it, given Ensign's base in Las Vegas, where he was a veterinarian, plus the above 50% approval rating.

Root for the Nevada gov race. Much more of a chance there, although we are the underdog. Primary is Tuesday.