Top 10 Senate seats most likely to change parties

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
08/18/2006
The Friday Line: U.S. Senate

....4. Ohio: Although we still believe Republicans will have a field day with Rep. Sherrod Brown's (D) voting record, we also can't ignore polls. In a July Columbus Dispatch survey, Brown had a 45 percent to 37 percent lead over Sen. Mike DeWine -- a VERY dangerous place for an incumbent to be with just a few months left before the election. DeWine's campaign also muffed an ad attacking Brown for his alleged weakness on national security by doctoring a photo of the World Trade Center. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee hit back immediately with an aggressive attack on DeWine's own security bona fides -- perhaps an early signal that the party will not take attacks lying down this cycle. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Rhode Island -- While conventional wisdom dictates that the primary loss by Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) was a bad omen for Sen. Lincoln Chafee's (R) chances against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey in the Sept. 12 primary, we think a point made in a recent column by Stu Rothenberg is actually more meaningful when it comes to assessing Laffey's chances. In it, Rothenberg effectively debunks the idea that the number of Democrats who have re-registered as unaffiliated voters (in order to vote in the Republican primary) is any higher than in a typical election year. Without a heavy influx of unaffiliated voters, it's hard to see how Chafee wins this race. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Montana -- Sen. Conrad Burns (R) has made a career of committing foot in mouth gaffes. His latest came when he exploded at a group of firefighters who he accused of not doing their jobs effectively. In post Sept. 11 politics it's hard to imagine a worse group to offend than firefighters and Burns's comments drew widespread press attention within the state and across the country. As long as this race is a referendum on Burns, it is state Sen. Jon Tester's (D) to lose. Tester must be careful not to assume, however, that Montana has undergone a wholesale ideological change in the last few years -- it still has a conservative minded electorate. Remember that Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) won in 2004 not by emphasizing his Democratic bona fides but by presenting himself as a non-partisan Montanan. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Pennsylvania -- Republicans rejoiced with the release of a new Quinnipiac University poll that showed Sen. Rick Santorum (R) down just six points to state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D). There's no question that Santorum is moving upward, but there were signs in that Quinnipiac poll that showed just how tough a race this is for the incumbent. More voters (44 percent) disapprove of Santorum than approve (42 percent) of him. On top of that President Bush seems to be a major drag on Santorum, with just 33 percent of those surveyed approving of the chief executive and 64 percent disapproving. Santorum will never stop working to win this race (which has won him grudging, but private, admiration from Democrats) so it's impossible to write him off. No one expected Casey to win this race by double digits so don't read too much into Santorum's improving numbers. (Previous ranking: 1)

(NOTE: The other races on the list are 5, Missouri; 6, Washington; 7, Maryland; 8, New Jersey; 9, Minnesota; 10, Tennessee.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[havocmom]

1. Burns (R-MT) sits on important committees and is a lobbyist puppet

For more than just his latest FUBAR stunt with the fire fighters, check out the MT forum. Look through my posts re Burns and Abramboff $$. Opens some interesting ideas about all those GOP cats on the Hill who 'gave the money back, TO CHARITY'

Burns blew off the debate sponsored by MT newspaper editors so he could play golf and rub elbows with fat cat donors back east. He blew off another important forum to take a train tour of the CA wine country with some more fat cat donors on that side of the nation.

You can bet the RNC will be calling foul when Dean and other DEMS help Jon Tester. Please point out the fat cats far from MT who give to Burns when you hear them squeal like little piggies.

If you don't have a senate race in your state this year, consider throwing some support to DEM candidates in other states. We need to take the Hill. Support DEM candidates nationally. The RNC is throwing money to the races they are sweating, count on it.

[cali]

2. Wouldn't it be great

to see dems pick up 6 seats, but I'm really only hopeful about RI and Montana, and a little bit hopeful about Tenn. I'm not worried about NJ or WA going repuke, but I have an awful feeling Santorum will sneak thru.

[KKKarl is an idiot]

4. Ricky boy will not sneak thru

I think the people of Pennsylvania want change in DC. They may have recently swung the way of Santorum but I still believe the apathy factor among the republican base will show on election day. This will account for a few surprises.

[Clark2008]

3. I know Ford's not a DU favorite, but, honestly, how cool

would it be for the South to send a black man to the Senate?

That's just awesome!

[Wickerman]

5. Go Amy Klobuchar!

In Minnesota, two polls -- one conducted for Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar's (D) campaign, the other for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune -- showed the Democrat with a wide lead (19 points and 18 points, respectively) over Rep. Mark Kennedy (R). While even Democrats admitted that the surveys likely caught Klobuchar at her high-water mark, Republicans acknowledge that their candidate trails by high single digits or low double-digits at the moment. That makes the contest difficult for Kennedy to win given the current political climate.

[Catchawave]

6. Accccccck

from the link...."In Virginia, much has been made of Sen. George Allen's "macaca" comments. While we believe the episode did damage to Allen's campaign, we don't think it will lead to his defeat. Much more worrisome for Allen are the rapidly changing demographics of the Commonwealth, where the northern Virginia suburbs are growing larger and more Democratic by the day....."

It's not just about the macaca comments, it's opened up a whole can of worms about Allen's racist and somewhat (Bush-like child of priviledge) kinky background. Even McCain couldn't help him rally veteran support in NORFOLK, despite a massive phone bank effort to challenge vets to show (prove?) their "patriotism". My husband got such a call and was pretty turned off by the request to "wear all your medals and badges of honor...".

Allen must go, afterall, he's admitted being bored in the Senate, and we all know he'll be kicking off his Presidential Campaign the day after midterms.