My current predictions - thanks to utter Republican stupidity of recent.

[Hawkeye-X]

Democratic House will be now very plausible.

Democratic Senate is now 75% realistic, however we need to force Lieberdick out, and throw more support to Webb, Whitehouse, Ford, Peterson (AZ), McCaskill and we may even gain up to 8 seats, giving Dems up to 2 seat majority.

I envision a lot of Republican retirements in '08, pleading ignorance and 'the need to spend time with family' *cough*, and giving more strength to Dems.

Hawkeye-X

[ps1074]

1. 8 seats?

Not likely. Right now a 4-5 seat gain is the most certain outcome - PA, MT, OH, RI, MO. That means a 50-50 senate. Winning a 6th seat will be very very hard thing to do. And only Webb and Ford have slim chances of defeating Allen and Corker.

The House? Things look good there. I am more optimistic about taking back the house - I really DO think dems can gain 20-25 seats in the house.

[Lasher]

3. I agree with all that, ps1074.

Rasmussen's Senate Balance of Power article pretty much lays it out as you have said. I had been hoping that Nevada could be included in the 'slim chance' category, but recent polling has rained on that parade.

Here is an article that predicts Democrats will retake the House. It backs up the prediction by identifying where the pickups will likely occur.

Edit: fatfinger

[Demeter]

5. Ah, But The Election Cycle Is Just Gearing Up!

and the way the GOP is self-destructing, anything can happen before November! Except any reasonable check on BushCo. That will happen after January.

[izzie]

2. I am bad on this stuff so just count the day after.

--

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Winning 4-5 net senate seats is hardly a certain outcome

I see that repeated too often around here. You can't assume victory due to small poll leads, especially against incumbents and not even out of August.

We are small favorites in some of those seats, namely Ohio and Montana, a small underdog in Missouri, and good size favorite only in Pennsylvania, which has tightened somewhat. Rhode Island depends on the GOP primary. It's basically pick-em if Chafee emerges but we're a massive favorite if it's Laffey.

That doesn't even take into consideration holding every Democratic seat, which is hardly a cinch especially New Jersey where Menendez is a small favorite..

For reference purposes, on Tradesports.com we are small favorites to retake the House, but roughly 15% chance at the senate.