Latest Senate race rankings from five sources

[katinmn]

http://www.clw.org/2006/08/latest_2006_sen.html

Council for a Liveable World has gathered the ratings for all of the 2006 Senate races by state from Cook Political Report, Congressional Quarterly, New York Times, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and National Public Radio’s Ken Rudin.

CLW: "Democrats need to pick up six seats to take control of the Senate. Assuming that races will break the way they’re predicted, the consensus among experts is that Democrats will pick up one seat in Pennsylvania, where they are presently favored to win, and have the possibility to pick up four more seats in races that are currently considered toss-ups: Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island. If Democrats pick up all 4 of these seats, the Senate will be divided 50-50. This is an unlikely feat, but one that is still within the realm of possibility.

To capture control of the Senate, Democrats would have to pick up one or more seats in the following states -- Arizona, Tennessee and/or Virginia – while not losing any of their vulnerable seats."


=======
Arizona
========
Incumbent Jon Kyl (R) vs. Jim Pederson (D)
Cook Political Report: Leaning Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican Favored
New York Times: Republican Leaning
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Republican Favored
Consensus: Republican favored

========
California
========
Incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Dick Mountjoy (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

========
Connecticut
========
Incumbent Joe Lieberman (I) vs. Ned Lamont (D) vs. Alan Schlessinger (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat Favored
New York Times: Democrat Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Not Republican
Consensus: Safe Democratic
*N.B. While Lieberman is running as an independent, if elected he will likely remain a Democrat.

========
Delaware
========
Incumbent Tom Carper (D) vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Democrat Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

========
Florida
========
Incumbent Bill Nelson (D) vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat Favored
New York Times: Democrat Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

======
Hawaii
======
Incumbent Daniel Akaka (D) or Ed Case (D) vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

======
Indiana
======
Incumbent Dick Lugar (R) vs. undecided Democrat
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican Safe
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Republican
Consensus: Safe Republican

=======
Maine
=======
Incumbent Olympia Snowe (R) vs. Jean Hay Bright (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican Safe
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Republican
Consensus: Safe Republican

=======
Maryland
=======
OPEN (Sarbanes-D): Undecided Democrat vs. Michael Steele (R)
Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democratic
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Leans Democratic
Consensus: Leaning Democrat

===========
Massachusetts
===========
Incumbent Ted Kennedy (D) vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

=======
Michigan
=======
Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R)
Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat Favored
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Democrat Favored
Consensus: Likely Democrat

========
Minnesota
========
OPEN (Dayton-D): Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Mark Kennedy (R)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Toss-up
Consensus: Toss-up

========
Mississippi
========
Incumbent Trent Lott (R) vs. Erik Fleming (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican Safe
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Republican
Consensus: Safe Republican

========
Missouri
========
Incumbent Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
New York Times: Toss-up
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Toss-up
Consensus: Toss-up

========
Montana
========
Incumbent Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite
New York Times: Toss-up
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Toss-up
Consensus: Toss-up

========
Nebraska
========
Incumbent Ben Nelson (D) vs. Pete Ricketts (R)
Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democratic
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Leans Democratic
Consensus: Leaning Democrat

======
Nevada
======
Incumbent John Ensign (R) vs. Jack Carter (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican Safe
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Republican Favored
Consensus: Safe Republican

=========
New Jersey
=========
Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) vs. Tom Kean Jr. (R)
Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Toss-up
Consensus: Leaning Democrat

=========
New Mexico
=========
Incumbent Jeff Bingaman (D) vs. Allen McCullough (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

=========
New York
=========
Incumbent Hilary Clinton vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Democrat Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

==========
North Dakota
==========
Incumbent Kent Conrad (D) vs. Dwight Grotberg (R)
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

====
Ohio
====
Incumbent Mike DeWine (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
New York Times: Republican Leaning
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Toss-up
Consensus: Toss-up

=========
Pennsylvania
=========
Incumbent Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democratic
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Leans Democratic
Consensus: Leaning Democrat

==========
Rhode Island
==========
Incumbent Lincoln Chafee (R) or Stephen Laffey (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: No Clear Favorite
New York Times: Toss-up
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Leans Republican if Chafee wins GOP primary. Democrat Favored if Laffey wins GOP primary.
Consensus: Toss-up

========
Tennessee
========
OPEN (Frist-R): Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford (D)
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Republican
New York Times: Republican Leaning
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Leans Republican
Consensus: Leaning Republican

=====
Texas
=====
Incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) vs. Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Republican
Consensus: Safe Republican

====
Utah
====
Incumbent Orrin Hatch (R) vs. Pete Ashdown (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Republican
Consensus: Safe Republican

========
Vermont
========
OPEN (Jeffords-I): Bernie Sanders (I) vs. Richard Tarrant (R)
Cook Political Report: Independent, Likely Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Democrat Favored
New York Times: Democrat Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Independent
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Independent
Consensus: Likely Independent Democratic
*N.B. While Bernie Sanders is running as an independent, he will caucus with Democrats if elected.

======
Virginia
======
Incumbent George Allen (R) vs. James Webb (D)
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Republican Favored
New York Times: Republican Leaning
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Republican Favored
Consensus: Republican favored

=========
Washington
=========
Incumbent Maria Cantwell (D) vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Leans Democrat
New York Times: Leaning Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Leans Democratic
Consensus: Leaning Democrat

==========
West Virginia
==========
Incumbent Robert Byrd (D) vs. John Raese (R)
Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Democrat Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

========
Wisconsin
========
Incumbent Herbert Kohl (D) vs. undecided Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Democrat
New York Times: Safe Democrat
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Democratic
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Democratic
Consensus: Safe Democratic

========
Wyoming
========
Incumbent Craig Thomas (R) vs. Dale Groutage (D)
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Congressional Quarterly: Safe Republican
New York Times: Republican Safe
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Solid Republican
NPR’s Ken Rudin: Safe Republican
Consensus: Safe Republican


From each of these five ratings, a consensus is derived if three of the five sources agree on a specific category. If three or more sources don’t agree on a particular category, the middle category is selected (i.e. two sources list Solid/Safe, one source lists Likely/Favored, and two sources list Leans/Leaning, the consensus would be Likely/Favored). A range of potential Democratic or Republican wins is provided at the end.

Please note: Each source has its own categories and criteria for judging Senate races. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato use four different gradients (in order from strongest to weakest certainty): Solid, Likely, Lean, and Toss-up. Congressional Quarterly uses four categories but slightly different wording (Safe, Favored, Leans, and No Clear Favorite) as does NPR’s Ken Rudin (Safe, Favored, Leans, and Toss-up). The New York Times uses three categories: Safe, Leaning, and Toss-up. For purposes here, we will be assuming that, respectively, Solid and Safe; Likely and Favored; Leans and Leaning; and Toss-up and No Clear Favorite are all roughly the same indicator.


Updated:
Cook Political Report: August 9, 2006
Congressional Quarterly: ongoing, entered August 14
New York Times: ongoing, entered August 14
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: ongoing, entered August 14
NPR’s Ken Rudin: August 9, 2006


Posted by Jeff Lindemyer at August 23, 2006 09:34 AM

[electropop]

1. I think George Allen placed himself in the "not a safe seat" category

with his antics the other day. Add another dem for VA! :smile:

[bigwillq]

2. Thanks for posting this.

:)

[katinmn]

3. Welcome. We know what we have to do!

[SaveElmer]

4. Wondering why Minnesota is still considered toss-up...

With several polls showing Amy Klobuchar with a double digit lead...and even Republicans admitting the bottom has dropped out of Mark Kennedy's campaign...

[katinmn]

5. Yeah, what's up with that?

[snowbear]

8. For one thing, the Cook Report... are you kidding me?

It's got to be hard for idiot's like them to put "Safe Democrat" down for a few of those places.

Poor DU'ers have got to be so sick of polls by now!

[katinmn]

9. It wasn't a poll. But most DUers are immune to polls by now.

I think Adenoid_Hynkel's comment about these rankings was right on. The rankings were collected from DC insiders who are an incestuous, narrow-minded bunch with undue influence over our public discourse and elections.

[cynthia]

10. It should say, leaning democrat

Kennedy can't pull support statewide.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

6. why is dewine so favored

he's losing to brown in every ohio poll. do these beltway guys have the results early, courtes of ken blackwell and diebold?

[katinmn]

7. You may be on to something.

[keepCAblue]

11. Diane Feinstein: Safe Democrat

Safe? No doubt. Democrat? Highly questionable

[Armstead]

12. Are they factoring in Bernie Sanders? he could be decisive.

Bernie Sanders is not technically a Democrat. But if he wins in Vermont, he would caucus with the Democrats.

It would actually be a continuation of the status quo in Vermont, with an independent Senator. But in general Sanders would most likely be a more reliable vote in the Democratic column.

I don;t know how that would effect the balance of power in the senate, but if it's a really close difference, Sanders could be crucial in the Big Picture.

[IronLionZion]

14. yes they are

they are treating Bernie like a Dem since he caucuses with us and we help his campaign, same with Jeffords.

Right now we have 44 Dems and 1 Indie, but they are treating it like 45 Dems.

[ananda]

13. Paging Howard Dean!

We need to focus our efforts in those six toss up states: bigtime!

[badgerpup]

15. Want to make sure of something here...SERIOUSLY.

Election is going to be held next Tuesday the 29th, right?
Asking cos I sure as hell don't want to miss the boat...
and I have some chivvying to do...making sure people get to the polls.
I know they'll vote the right way...once they get there.

[MoonRiver]

16. Thanks. But the CT one is completely meaningless.

They say solid Democrat then state that Lieberman is considered a Democrat!
:wtf: LIEberman is running as an INDEPENDENT. LAMONT IS THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE! :crazy:

[Ediacara]

17. This is heavily biased for the status quo

Almost all recent Ohio polling heavily favors Brown over DeWine, yet two of these people call it GOP-favored? Missouri is a true toss-up but polling seems to have it edging toward McCaskill, but one of their people calls it for the GOP? Montana has been heavily for Tester for months (despite a recent outlier by Rasmussen showing a tie) yet their consensus is a tie? Rhode Island has been showing Whitehouse in the lead since June, yet it's a tossup with Chafee favored by one person? And in just one month Allen's lead in Virginia has gone into freefall from +16 to +3 and will likely continue that trend due to his self-destruct episode.

The polling that actually exists by reputable polling outfits shows a pickup of 5 seats for the Democrats (PA, OH, RI, MO, and MT) and now shows VA within the MoE. No seats currently held by Democrats are at risk according to actual polls.

[UrbScotty]

18. Ken Rudin is wrong about CT ("Not Republican")

Actually, it's a toss-up between a Democrat and a "Democrat."