New analysis shows Democratic takeover of House likely

[babylonsister]

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/New_analysis_shows_Democratic_takeover_of_0825.html

The latest state-by-state analysis by the Rothenberg Political Report projects a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, RAW STORY has learned.

In the lower house of the legislature, Rothenberg's analysis sees Democrats gaining 15-20 seats--well over the 12 needed for a House majority. Previous analysis had the gap much tighter, with Democrats' prospects for takeover hanging on just a handful of hotly contested seats.

Democrats still appear unlikely to re-take the Senate, however, with projected gains of just 3-5 seats. Of the 9 seats ranked as at least somewhat competitive, both of those leaning toward an incumbent ouster and three of the four toss-ups are currently held by Republicans. However, three Democrats are also given just a narrow advantage in their races.

For the full reports visit:

Edited to add/correct link.

Rothenberg House of Representatives analysis here:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/08/new-print-edition-house-outlook-for_25.html

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/08/2006-senate-ratings.html

[Vincardog]

1. /Ther is still a lot of time till Nov. We will overcome and kick publikkk

a$$

[Phredicles]

6. Still a lot of time to blow it, too (Sorry to be a wet blanket but I've

been a Democrat for a looooooooooooooooonnnnnnggg time).

[Vincardog]

11. You are going to vote right? Are you going to GOTV for the DemocratIC

candidates in your area? If we all do that we will win TOO BIG TO STEAL.

[Sherman A1]

2. Hope that you are correct

I have my doubts.

[paulk]

3. bad link /nt

[babylonsister]

5. Thanks; fixed. nt

[AX10]

4. Assuming a fair election, we will win both houses and 30 governorships.

We have 2 months to go still. We can win more than 20 seats in the house too.

[longship]

7. My prediction: upwards of fifty seats go to Dems.

Senate is likely to go Dem, too, with up to seven or eight turnovers.

This is going to be bigger than anybody is predicting. The reason? Because all the numbers are way, way out of wack. We're in history making territory here. Furthermore, all the pundits are predicting a big turnover, even the Repukes.

Today, Novakula predicted 25 House seats. He cited an unknown Repuke pollster as claiming 25-30 House seats. Now, here's the important thing. These guys do not want to be caught wrong by over-estimating the turnover. This is especially true for the Repuke apologists, like Novak. Since there's never been a situation like this before, they're not going to take the risk and predict what they really fear is going to happen. That is that the Democratic Party is likely to pick up fifty or more seats this November.

With that many races in play, there's no way that this is Diebold-able. Remember, Diebolding works only when they aren't caught. Rigging a race here and there can work, but there's no way that it can go undetected in that many races.

Furthermore, some House seats are going to turn which the Repukes will not detect are in trouble. Seats that seem safe ain't gonna be safe and they won't know it until the day after the election. You don't risk Diebolding a safe race. Also, there's places where Diebolding isn't an option, like blue states and places where they vote by paper, old machines (CT), mail vote (OR), etc.

The electorate is in a very foul temper, all against the Repukes. November is going to be truly huge because the Repukes have nothing to offer but the same thing. The only way they can possibly respond is with more of precisely the same bullshit that has gotten them in trouble. Stay the course is the only thing they have. They've literally painted themselves into a corner.

[babylonsister]

8. Your prediction gives me goosebumps! I hope

you're right and love your optimism!

[longship]

9. Well, I think we're outside the safe prediction domain.

Let's get on the hump. We've got some flyin' to do.

[Eric J in MN]

10. From their lips to God's ears.

NT

[DavidDvorkin]

12. The Republicker Party will hold onto power

I fear.

When the dust settles, despite all the polls, the final counts will be sufficiently in their favor. There'll be a brief outcry, and then the populace will settle back into its uneasy slumber.

But I really hope I'm wrong.

[saltpoint]

13. Absent a miracle in Iraq, and with the economy volatile and patchy at`

best, I see a lot of discouraged Republican voters sitting this one out.

Democrats this year are wildly motivated and their turnout could make this projection by Rothenberg a reality.

Sure sounds like pretty good news to me.

[DeepModem Mom]

14. K&R

[Tiggeroshii]

15. umm..

"In the lower house of the legislature, Rothenberg's analysis sees Democrats gaining 15-20 seats--well over the 12 needed for a House majority"

Actually we need 15 gains to take over the house, right?

That would be coool.

This guy thinks we'll take the house too:

www.myelectionanalysis.com