Looking a website that shows state by state presidential election trends

[skipos]

In articles about presidential elections, I often read statements like "Michigan is trending Democratic" or "Nebraska is trending Republican." I have never seen any raw data on this though. Does anyone know of any websites that have this kind of data?

[acmejack]

1. Like this one?

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

http://www.zogby.com/index.cfm

four letter words and I still can't spell them!

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Let me see if I can find it

I've been doing that since '96, comparing statewide voting trends to the nation itself. I posted a thread here in summer '03 listing it state by state beginning in '88. Early the next year Chris Bower of MyDD put together a similar chart but he went back further than I did, to '76. Plus he had a far superior term, partisan index, to describe the difference between the state and the nation.

I can't locate that MyDD link but you might contact Chris Bowers there and ask him about it. Otherwise, I can repost my stuff.

[espera17]

3. yes!

look at http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/2006/03/national-political-movement-since-1988.html

Great explanation and every state listed.

[samsingh]

6. trending democratic

i believe that the only way Democrats will lose, and they still might, is stealing of votes by the repugs

[espera17]

13. i told you it was a great site

so much good information

[rosesaylavee]

4. I used this site in 2004

and it looks like its gearing up for the fall elections. The site owner is overseas in the Netherlands I think.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Greeby]

7. Yeah, I used to wake up and check that site very day of the campaign

And on the last day, the webmaster revealed himself

[espera17]

12. he wasnt that accurate

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Here's the link to my original thread in 2003

Weird to see my old slightly different user name before Skinner allowed us a brief window to change it, plus the posts from jiacinto.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/cgi-bin/duforum/duboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5453&forum=DCForumID22

And here's the updated version to include 2004:

'88: George Bush Sr. 53.37%, Michael Dukakis 45.65% = Republican by 7.72%
'92: Bill Clinton 43.01%, George Bush Sr. 37.45% = Democratic by 5.56%
'96: Bill Clinton 49.24%, Bob Dole 40.71% = Democratic by 8.53%
'00: Al Gore 48.38%, George W. Bush 47.87% = Democratic by 0.51%
'04: George Bush 50.73%, John Kerry 48.27% = Republican by 2.46%

Example: Clinton, with an 8.53 national margin in '96, wins Florida by 48.02 to 42.32, or 5.70%. The net margin, therefore, is actually + 2.83% Republican, since Clinton did not manage his 8.53 number.

Alabama:
'88: Bush (59.17 - 39.86) = + 11.59% Republican
'92: Bush (47.65 - 40.88) = + 12.33% Republican
'96: Dole (50.12 - 43.16) = + 15.49% Republican
'00: Bush (56.47 - 41.59) = + 15.39% Republican
'04: Bush (62.46 - 36.84) = + 23.16% Republican

Alaska:
'88: Bush (59.59 - 36.27) = + 15.60% Republican
'92: Bush (39.46 - 30.29) = + 14.73% Republican
'96: Dole (50.80 - 33.27) = + 26.06% Republican
'00: Bush (58.62 - 27.67) = + 31.46% Republican
'04: Bush (61.07 - 35.52) = + 23.09% Republican

Arizona:
'88: Bush (59.95 - 38.74) = + 13.49% Republican
'92: Bush (38.47 - 36.52) = + 7.51% Republican
'96: Clinton (46.52 - 44.29) = + 6.30% Republican
'00: Bush (51.02 - 44.73) = + 6.80% Republican
'04: Bush (54.87 - 44.40) = + 8.01% Republican

Arkansas:
'88: Bush (56.37 - 42.19) = + 6.46% Republican
'92: Clinton (53.21 - 35.48) = + 12.17% Democratic
'96: Clinton (53.74 - 36.80) = + 8.41% Democratic
'00: Bush (51.31 - 45.86) = + 5.76% Republican
'04: Bush (54.31 - 44.55) = + 7.30% Republican
(note: '92 and '96 are obviously more reflective of a massive favorite son swing than political tendencies of the state. notice the extremely similar non-Clinton net margins of '88, '00 and '04)

California:
'88: Bush (51.13 - 47.56) = + 4.15% Democratic
'92: Clinton (46.01 - 32.61) = + 7.84% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.10 - 38.21) = + 4.36% Democratic
'00: Gore (53.45 - 41.65) = + 11.29% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.31 - 44.36) = + 12.41% Democratic

Colorado:
'88: Bush (53.06 - 45.28) = + 0.06% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.13 - 35.87) = + 1.30% Republican
'96: Dole (45.80 - 44.43) = + 9.90% Republican
'00: Bush (50.75 - 42.39) = + 8.87% Republican
'04: Bush (51.69 - 47.02) = + 2.21% Republican

Connecticut:
'88: Bush (51.98 - 46.87) = + 2.61% Democratic
'92: Clinton (42.21 - 35.78) = + 0.87% Democratic
'96: Clinton (52.83 - 34.69) = + 9.61% Democratic
'00: Gore (55.91 - 38.44) = + 16.96% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.31 - 43.95) = + 12.82% Democratic
(note: again, note the obvious Lieberman influence from 2000, worth the standard 3 to 4 points for a VP nominee if the state has not been represented on the ticket recently)

Delaware:
'88: Bush (55.88 - 43.48) = + 4.68% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.51 - 35.31) = + 2.64% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.82 - 36.58) = + 6.71% Democratic
'00: Gore (54.96 - 41.90) = + 12.55% Democratic
'04: Kerry (53.35 - 45.75) = + 10.06% Democratic

District of Columbia:
'88: Dukakis (83.70 - 14.49) = + 76.93% Democratic
'92: Clinton (84.64 - 9.10) = + 69.98% Democratic
'96: Clinton (85.19 - 9.34) = + 67.32% Democratic
'00: Gore (85.16 - 8.95) = + 75.70% Democratic
'04: Kerry (89.18 - 9.34) = + 82.30% Democratic

Florida:
'88: Bush (60.87 - 38.51) = + 14.64% Republican
'92: Bush (40.89 - 39.00) = + 7.45% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.02 - 42.32) = + 2.83% Republican
'00: Bush* (48.85 - 48.84) = + 0.52% Republican
* (my estimated adjustment, after elongated analysis and plenty of admitted guesswork, was Gore 49.18 - Bush 48.53 = + 0.14% Democratic)
'04: Bush (52.10 - 47.09) = + 2.55% Republican

Georgia:
'88: Bush (59.75 - 39.50) = + 12.53% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.47 - 42.88) = + 4.97% Republican
'96: Dole (47.01 - 45.84) = + 9.70% Republican
'00: Bush (54.67 - 42.98) = + 12.20% Republican
'04: Bush (57.97 - 41.37) = + 14.14% Republican

Hawaii:
'88: Dukakis (54.27 - 44.75) = + 17.24% Democratic
'92: Clinton (48.09 - 36.70) = + 5.83% Democratic
'96: Clinton (56.93 - 31.64) = + 16.76% Democratic
'00: Gore (55.79 - 37.46) = + 17.82% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.01 - 45.26) = +11.21% Democratic

Idaho:
'88: Bush (62.08 - 36.01) = + 18.35% Republican
'92: Bush (42.03 - 28.42) = + 19.17% Republican
'96: Dole (52.18 - 33.65) = + 27.06% Republican
'00: Bush (67.17 - 27.64) = + 40.04% Republican
'04: Bush (68.38 - 30.26) = + 35.66% Republican

Illinois:
'88: Bush (50.69 - 48.60) = + 5.63% Democratic
'92: Clinton (48.58 - 34.34) = + 8.68% Democratic
'96: Clinton (54.31 - 36.81) = + 8.97% Democratic
'00: Gore (54.60 - 42.58) = + 11.51% Democratic
'04: Kerry (54.82 - 44.48) = + 12.80% Democratic

Indiana:
'88: Bush (59.84 - 39.69) = + 12.43% Republican
'92: Bush (42.91 - 36.79) = + 11.68% Republican
'96: Dole (47.13 - 41.55) = + 14.11% Republican
'00: Bush (56.65 - 41.01) = + 16.15% Republican
'04: Bush (59.94 - 39.26) = + 18.22% Republican

Iowa:
'88: Dukakis (54.71 - 44.50) = + 17.93% Democratic
'92: Clinton (43.29 - 37.27) = + 0.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (50.26 - 39.92) = + 1.81% Democratic
'00: Gore (48.54 - 48.22) = + 0.19% Republican
'04: Bush (49.90 - 49.23) = + 1.79% Democratic

Kansas:
'88: Bush (55.79 - 42.56) = + 5.51% Republican
'92: Bush (38.88 - 33.74) = + 10.70% Republican
'96: Dole (54.29 - 36.08) = + 26.74% Republican
'00: Bush (58.04 - 37.24) = + 21.31% Republican
'04: Bush (62.00 - 36.62) = + 22.92% Republican

Kentucky:
'88: Bush (55.52 - 43.88) = + 3.92% Republican
'92: Clinton (44.55 - 41.34) = + 2.35% Republican
'96: Clinton (45.84 - 44.88) = + 7.57% Republican
'00: Bush (56.50 - 41.37) = + 15.64% Republican
'04: Bush (59.55 - 39.69) = + 17.40% Republican

Louisiana:
'88: Bush (54.27 - 44.06) = + 2.49% Republican
'92: Clinton (45.58 - 40.97) = + 0.95% Republican
'96: Clinton (52.01 - 39.94) = + 3.54% Democratic
'00: Bush (52.55 - 44.88) = + 8.18% Republican
'04: Bush (56.72 - 42.22) = + 12.04% Republican

Maine:
'88: Bush (55.34 - 43.88) = + 3.66% Republican
'92: Clinton (38.77 - 30.44) = + 2.77% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.62 - 30.76) = + 12.33% Democratic
'00: Gore (49.09 - 43.97) = + 4.61% Democratic
'04: Kerry (53.57 - 44.58) = + 11.45% Democratic

Maryland:
'88: Bush (51.11 - 48.20) = + 4.81% Democratic
'92: Clinton (49.80 - 35.62) = + 8.62% Democratic
'96: Clinton (54.25 - 38.27) = + 7.45% Democratic
'00: Gore (56.57 - 40.18) = + 15.88% Democratic
'04: Kerry (55.91 - 42.93) = + 15.44% Democratic

Massachusetts:
'88: Dukakis (53.23 - 45.37) = + 15.58% Democratic
'92: Clinton (47.54 - 29.02) = + 12.96% Democratic
'96: Clinton (61.47 - 28.08) = + 24.86% Democratic
'00: Gore (59.80 - 32.50) = + 26.79% Democratic
'04: Kerry (61.94 - 36.78) = + 27.62% Democratic

Michigan:
'88: Bush (53.57 - 45.67) = + 0.18% Republican
'92: Clinton (43.77 - 36.38) = + 1.83% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.69 - 38.48) = + 4.68% Democratic
'00: Gore (51.28 - 46.14) = + 4.63% Democratic
'04: Kerry (51.23 - 47.81) = + 5.88% Democratic

Minnesota:
'88: Dukakis (52.91 - 45.90) = + 14.73% Democratic
'92: Clinton (43.48 - 31.85) = + 6.07% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.10 - 34.96) = + 7.61% Democratic
'00: Gore (47.91 - 45.50) = + 1.90% Democratic
'04: Kerry (51.09 - 47.61) = + 5.94% Democratic

Mississippi:
'88: Bush (59.89 - 39.07) = + 13.10% Republican
'92: Bush (49.68 - 40.77) = + 14.47% Republican
'96: Dole (49.21 - 44.08) = + 13.66% Republican
'00: Bush (57.62 - 40.70) = + 17.43% Republican
'04: Bush (59.45 - 39.73) = + 17.26% Republican

Missouri:
'88: Bush (51.82 - 47.84) = + 3.74% Democratic
'92: Clinton (44.07 - 33.92) = + 4.59% Democrat
'96: Clinton (47.54 - 41.24) = + 2.23% Republican
'00: Bush (50.42 - 47.08) = + 3.85% Republican
'04: Bush (53.30 - 46.10) = + 4.74% Republican

Montana:
'88: Bush (52.07 - 46.20) = + 1.85% Democratic
'92: Clinton (37.63 - 35.12) = + 3.05% Republican
'96: Dole (44.11 - 41.23) = + 11.41% Republican
'00: Bush (58.44 - 33.36) = + 25.59% Republican
'04: Bush (59.07 - 38.56) = + 18.05% Republican

Nebraska:
'88: Bush (60.15 - 39.20) = + 13.23% Republican
'92: Bush (46.58 - 29.40) = + 22.74% Republican
'96: Dole (53.66 - 34.95) = + 27.24% Republican
'00: Bush (62.25 - 33.25) = + 29.51% Republican
'04: Bush (65.90 - 32.68) = + 30.76% Republican

Nevada:
'88: Bush (58.86 - 37.92) = + 13.22% Republican
'92: Clinton (37.36 - 34.73) = + 2.93% Republican
'96: Clinton (43.93 - 42.91) = + 7.51% Republican
'00: Bush (49.52 - 45.98) = + 4.05% Republican
'04: Bush (50.47 - 47.88) = + 0.13% Republican

New Hampshire:
'88: Bush (62.41 - 36.29) = + 18.40% Republican
'92: Clinton (38.86 - 37.64) = + 4.34% Republican
'96: Clinton (49.32 - 39.37) = + 1.42% Democratic
'00: Bush (48.07 - 46.80) = + 1.78% Republican
'04: Kerry (50.24 - 48.87) = + 3.83% Democratic

New Jersey:
'88: Bush (56.24 - 42.60) = + 5.92% Republican
'92: Clinton (42.95 - 40.58) = + 3.19% Republican
'96: Clinton (53.72 - 35.86) = + 9.33% Democratic
'00: Gore (56.13 - 40.29) = + 15.33% Democratic
'04: Kerry (52.92 - 46.24) = + 9.14% Democratic

New Mexico:
'88: Bush (51.86 - 46.90) = + 2.76 Democratic
'92: Clinton (45.90 - 37.34) = + 3.00% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.18 - 41.86) = + 1.21% Republican
'00: Gore (47.91 - 47.85) = + 0.45% Republican
'04: Bush (49.84 - 49.05) = + 1.67% Democratic

New York:
'88: Dukakis (51.62 - 47.52) = + 11.82% Democratic
'92: Clinton (49.73 - 33.88) = + 10.29% Democratic
'96: Clinton (59.47 - 30.61) = + 20.33% Democratic
'00: Gore (60.21 - 35.23) = + 24.47% Democratic
'04: Kerry (58.37 - 40.08) = + 20.75% Democratic

North Carolina:
'88: Bush (57.97 - 41.71) = + 8.54% Republican
'92: Bush (43.44 - 42.65) = + 6.35% Republican
'96: Dole (48.73 - 44.04) = + 13.22% Republican
'00: Bush (56.03 - 43.20) = + 13.34% Republican
'04: Bush (56.02 - 43.58) = + 9.98% Republican
(note: based on the near-identical partisan numbers from 1996 and 2000, John Edwards provided precisely the typical 3-4 point VP boost in his home state)

North Dakota:
'88: Bush (56.03 - 42.97) = + 5.34% Republican
'92: Bush (44.22 - 32.18) = + 17.60% Republican
'96: Dole (46.94 - 40.13) = + 15.34% Republican
'00: Bush (60.66 - 33.06) = + 28.11% Republican
'04: Bush (62.86 - 35.50) = + 24.90% Republican

Ohio:
'88: Bush (55.00 - 44.15) = + 3.13% Republican
'92: Clinton (40.18 - 38.35) = + 3.73% Republican
'96: Clinton (47.38 - 41.02) = + 2.17% Republican
'00: Bush (49.97 - 46.46) = + 4.02% Republican
'04: Bush (50.81 - 48.71) = + 0.36% Democratic
(note: I would be hesitant to expect Ohio to remain a dead-even or slightly Democratic state compared to the national vote. It suffered a much worse than average state economy from 2000 to 2004 and may revert to the typical 2-4 point GOP edge if that balances out)

Oklahoma:
'88: Bush (57.93 - 41.28) = + 8.93% Republican
'92: Bush (42.65 - 34.02) = + 14.19% Republican
'96: Dole (48.26 - 40.45) = + 16.34% Republican
'00: Bush (60.31 - 38.43) = + 22.39% Republican
'04: Bush (65.57 - 34.43) = + 28.68% Republican

Oregon:
'88: Dukakis (51.28 - 46.61) = + 12.39% Democratic
'92: Clinton (42.48 - 32.53) = + 4.39% Democratic
'96: Clinton (47.15 - 39.06) = + 0.44% Republican
'00: Gore (46.96 - 46.52) = + 0.07% Republican
'04: Kerry (51.35 - 47.19) = + 6.62% Democratic

Pennsylvania:
'88: Bush (50.70 - 48.39) = + 5.41% Democratic
'92: Clinton (45.15 - 36.13) = + 3.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.17 - 39.97) = + 0.67% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.60 - 46.43) = + 3.66% Democratic
'04: Kerry (50.92 - 48.42) = + 4.96% Democratic

Rhode Island:
'88: Dukakis (55.64 - 43.93) = + 19.43% Democratic
'92: Clinton (47.04 - 29.02) = + 12.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (59.71 - 26.82) = + 24.36% Democratic
'00: Gore (60.99 - 31.91) = + 28.57% Democratic
'04: Kerry (59.42 - 38.67) = + 23.21% Democratic

South Carolina:
'88: Bush (61.50 - 37.58) = + 16.20% Republican
'92: Bush (48.02 - 39.88) = + 13.70% Republican
'96: Dole (49.79 - 43.96) = + 14.36% Republican
'00: Bush (56.84 - 40.90) = + 16.45% Republican
'04: Bush (57.98 - 40.90) = + 14.62% Republican

South Dakota:
'88: Bush (52.85 - 46.51) = + 1.38% Democratic
'92: Bush (40.66 - 37.14) = + 9.08% Republican
'96: Dole (46.49 - 43.03) = + 11.99% Republican
'00: Bush (60.30 - 37.56) = + 23.25% Republican
'04: Bush (59.91 - 38.44) = + 19.01% Republican

Tennessee:
'88: Bush (57.89 - 41.55) = + 8.62% Republican
'92: Clinton (47.08 - 42.43) = + 0.91% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.00 - 45.59) = + 6.12% Republican
'00: Bush (51.15 - 47.28) = + 4.38% Republican
'04: Bush (56.80 - 42.53) = + 11.81% Republican
(note: notice the obvious impact Gore had in '92, '96 and 2000 while on the ticket. He gets a bad rap for not carrying his home state. Based on the numbers from 1988 and 2004 without Gore on the ticket, Tennessee obviously defaults to basically 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Probably slightly less than that, since we did not campaign in Tennessee during 2004, skewing the number high)

Texas:
'88: Bush (55.95 - 43.35) = + 4.88% Republican
'92: Bush (40.56 - 37.08) = + 9.04% Republican
'96: Dole (48.76 - 43.83) = + 13.46% Republican
'00: Bush (59.30 - 37.98) = + 21.83% Republican
'04: Bush (61.09 - 38.22) = + 20.41% Republican
(note: like Arkansas in '92 and '96, Texas '00 and '04 is certainly candidate-driven to some degree and inflated several points from the actual partisanship of the state)

Utah:
'88: Bush (66.22 - 32.05) = + 26.45% Republican
'92: Bush (43.36 - 24.65) = + 24.27% Republican
'96: Dole (54.37 - 33.30) = + 29.60% Republican
'00 Bush (66.83 - 26.34) = + 41.00% Republican
'04: Bush (71.54 - 26.00) = + 43.08% Republican

Vermont:
'88: Bush (51.10 - 47.58) = + 4.20% Democratic
'92: Clinton (46.11 - 30.42) = + 10.13% Democratic
'96: Clinton (53.35 - 31.09) = + 13.73% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.63 - 40.70) = + 9.42% Democratic
'04: Kerry (58.94 - 38.80) = + 22.60% Democratic

Virginia:
'88: Bush (59.74 - 39.23) = + 12.79% Republican
'92: Bush (44.97 - 40.59) = + 9.94% Republican
'96: Dole (47.10 - 45.15) = + 10.48% Republican
'00: Bush (52.47 - 44.44) = + 8.54% Republican
'04: Bush (53.68 - 45.48) = + 5.74% Republican

Washington:
'88: Dukakis (50.05 - 48.46) = + 9.31% Democratic
'92: Clinton (43.40 - 31.96) = + 5.88% Democratic
'96: Clinton (49.84 - 37.30) = + 4.01% Democratic
'00: Gore (50.16 - 44.58) = + 5.07% Democratic
'04: Kerry (52.82 - 45.64) = + 9.64% Democratic

West Virginia:
'88: Dukakis (52.20 - 47.46) = + 12.46% Democratic
'92: Clinton (48.41 - 35.39) = + 7.46% Democratic
'96: Clinton (51.50 - 36.76) = + 6.21% Democratic
'00: Bush (51.92 - 45.59) = + 6.84% Republican
'04: Bush (56.06 - 43.20) = + 10.40% Republican

Wisconsin:
'88: Dukakis (51.41 - 47.80) = + 11.33% Democratic
'92: Clinton (41.13 - 36.78) = + 1.21% Republican
'96: Clinton (48.81 - 38.48) = + 1.80% Democratic
'00: Gore (47.83 - 47.61) = + 0.29% Republican
'04: Kerry (49.70 - 49.32) = + 2.84% Democratic

Wyoming:
'88: Bush (60.53 - 38.01) = + 14.80% Republican
'92: Bush (39.56 - 33.98) = + 11.14% Republican
'96: Dole (49.81 - 36.84) = + 21.50% Republican
'00: Bush (67.76 - 27.70) = + 40.57% Republican
'04: Bush (68.86 - 29.07) = + 37.33% Republican
(note: overlooked and irrelevant, but Cheney has apparently made a substantial impact here, predictably to somewhat lesser degree the second cycle on the ticket. Tiny amount of votes in Wyoming so a favorite son swing of thousands of votes has a much greater impact than typical in regard to percentages)

[skipos]

8. Wow, thats exactly what I was looking for.

Thanks!

[Awsi Dooger]

9. No problem, skipos

I hadn't posted those numbers in a long time. I wish I had the link to the MyDD chart since it's interesting to go back to '76 and notice how dramatically the South moved after that point.

You can see the states we are steadily gaining ground, like Virginia, Colorado, Nevada. Those states are definitely in reach but not if we insist on losing the national popular vote by 3 points, as Kerry did. It's why I'm so intrigued by Warner's candidacy since if that state keeps drifting our way we can potentially steal it in '08 even if we don't win the national popular vote.

I probably should have more notes in there, like after 2000 when some of the margins were definitely impacted by the Nader vote. They look like they moved back in our direction in 2004 but really it was partially that, but more that Nader either wasn't on the ballot or got far less support.

When I first put together that chart it was long after the fact and I didn't have the ability to look at short term factors to understand the switching. But now it's far simpler to evaluate, like Ohio moving in our favor not due to demographic shift as much as lousy state economy and GOP scandals in the state.

Keep in mind this is the presidential level vote. IMO the presidential vote is based very strongly on party, with the senate vote a combo of party and candidate, and the gov votes more based primarily on candidates. I've made the mistake before of using these numbers to project senate and gov races and it's not always applicable.

But denying the relevance in the presidential vote is foolhardy, IMO. It's why clinging to the exit polls from 2004 is so preposterous in many cases. Last night on CSPAN I saw Steven Freeman insisting Kerry won Ohio big, something like 11 points. Yeah, sure. Check out that chart and find any evidence a Democrat could have won Ohio by that margin, in an election close to 50/50 nationally if not a few points in favor of the Republican. He wants us to believe Ohio suddenly changed to a huge Democratic partisan index edge. You've got too many come-lately fools who look at one number without any historical reference or knowledge and make idiotic assertions. Or the 57% for a Democrat in New Hamphire during a 50/50 cycle, also indicated in the exit polls. Right.

[skipos]

10. It is interesting to go through

and see the strategically best states for our P and VP nominees to come from. Good candidates from Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, or Virginia would likely win those states, do you agree? I think a really popular person like Schweitzer could flip a state as red as Montana, but I don't know about Bayh in Indiana. I assume if you spent this much time looking at trends, you probably have some theories about this. I'd like to hear it.

[espera17]

11. the most flippable states are midwest

and the southwest. i see pretty much any state flipping with the exception of indiana. montana may flip, but it only has 3 EVs, not very strategical.