So who's more accurate...... KOS or Stuart Rothenberg?

[snowbear]

KOS: "Democrats will pick up 7 to 14 House seats"

Stuart Rothernberg: "Democrats likely will gain 15 to 20 seats"
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Both predictions came out on the same day --- yesterday.

CNN's Situation Room:

On our "Political Radar" this Monday: a striking political prediction. A top analyst of congressional races now believes Democrats will pick up enough seats on Election Day to reclaim the majority control of the House of Representatives. Stuart Rothenberg estimates, Democrats likely will gain 15 to 20 seats. That's up from his earlier prediction of eight to 12 seats.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0608/28/sitroom.01.html

So who's more accurate?

<--KOS ... or ... Rothenberg-->

Stuart Rothenberg is the editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based, biweekly, non-partisan newsletter that reports on and analyzes the United States Presidential, House, Senatorial, and Gubernatorial elections and current political developments.

Rothenberg holds a B.A. from Colby College in Waterville, Maine, and a Ph.D. from the University of Connecticut. He has taught political science at Bucknell University Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, and The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C.. Rothenberg writes a twice-a-week column for Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, and his op-eds have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Orlando Sentinel.

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Or is it that we're just too bombarded with predictions this time of the year?

[Cornus]

1. Let's hope it's Rothenberg NT

[Ignacio Upton]

2. Here here!

But Kos is trying to play the expectations game. He knows that we've been disappointed three times in the last six years ('00, '02, and '04) and doesn't want that to happen again.

[Beetwasher]

3. Kos Is Playing The Game of Lowered Expectations

He doesn't want to be let down, again and I can understand that. If we lower our expectations, we won't be dissapointed.

[longship]

5. No, if we lower expectations...

We can claim victory when we fuck it up.

If we don't fuck it up, we get 30-40 House seats or more.

We've got the nuts dealt to us. We've got to play that hand. Low-balling is not going to win.

Low expectations gave us a Chimp president for two terms. It's time to change strategies.

[Beetwasher]

8. Just Telling You What Kos is Doing, IMO

I didn't indicate that I agreed w/ it. You may be right, you may be wrong, but Kos is just making sure he's not dissapointed w/ the outcome as he has been in the past when he's predicted significant victories and been wrong.

[madfloridian]

10. Yes, many of the bloggers are doing that. Correct.

It is making the GOP minds very angry when they do that.

[longship]

4. Both are low-balling.

And both are presuming that the situation is static. It isn't.

By November, we're going to be looking at an entirely different situation. It's most likely to be much more than either of these guys are willing to say.

[SheilaT]

6. The real question to ask

is, how accurate was either one of them in 04 or 02?

[featherman]

7. Actually a pretty bold prediction from Rothenberg

Who tends to err on the side of maintaining the status quo. IF trends continue and IF DEMS do not get complacent and continue to fight and finance, Rothenberg's predictions may end up being on the low end.
Let's hope.

[snowbear]

9. That's good to hear..

Sounds like he's been studying political trends long enough to know what he's talking about.. :shrug:

Now we just need it to actually happen!

[paulk]

11. KOS is a wannabe politico

whose opinion isn't worth shit.

Rothenberg isn't the only pollster predicting large Democratic gains.

Kos may be trying to lower expectations - that's dumb. You don't win by expecting to lose.

Anyone who's ever played a sport knows that.

Kos just likes to make controversial statements because it makes him feel important.

BFD.

[madfloridian]

12. And Rothenberg has tendencies to be Republican oriented...

So it might be considered by him to be heightening expectations.

[paulk]

13. Rothenberg isn't the only pollster predicting sweeping

Democratic gains. And since Rothenberg is a Republican, it's more likely he's sending a message to Republicans.... that they need to change election strategy if they plan on keeping control of Congress. Also, since this is what Mr. Rothenberg does for a living - I'm sure he's much more considered about his public statements than Kos is. Kos can (and does) say all manner of absurd things without any threat to his credibility, mostly because, in the real world of political analysis, he has none.