RI SEN: Election Politics: Fact, Fiction and Fantasy

[CarlSheeler4U]

Few know what Dewey thought the day after his defeat to Truman. The rhetoric flies and grows deep. The psyops of politics and operatives is someting to behold. There are many opinions out there of what people think and will do.

Who hasn't witnessed the myriad of reasons for fuel prices recent decline and previous increases? How many anticipated these events? Likely it's the same number offering investment advice who possess Warren Buffet's wealth. If their knowledge was that uncannily good, they'd all be wealthy and not working for those who are.

Few poli-sci majors will dispute there is both an art and a science to the election process. It's akin to economics, where the best reporting is often in hindsight. How else can one explain there is over a 30 point (30%) differential between polling results offered by the Chafee and Laffey campaigns' results this past week. Each shows the opponent winning by roughly 15% or a 65% to 35% vote split. Is it fact, fiction or fantasy? Absent of media investigative rigor, how much does simply reporting this create a self fulfilling prophesy?

This is not like cheering on the Red Sox. We're supposed to support them whether they're winning or loosing against the Yanks... but some cast their vote because they fear they might not pick the "winner" versus the "best" candidate. Mayor Laffey may have it right. Both of us hail from an analytical business background knowing polls and numbers can be manipulated very, very easily. I hope he agrees the only wasted vote is the one not cast.

In the case of the Democratic machine politics, we had in one month and over $500,000 in television ads later Matt Brown surpassing Sheldon Whitehouse in the polls by almost a 2:1 margin. The problem with this and subsequent polls is they often do not survey historic primary ("core") voters, but rather "likely" voters. Traditionally, in most election years primary voters often vote based upon their local candidates and afterwards on statewide and federal candidates. In June Survey USA reported Sheldon Whitehouse with a 30% favorable, 35% unfavorable and 25% undecided ratings. He polled worst among people 55+ and older as well as minorities and best with 25 and younger and those residing in the state fewer than five years.

The 55+ are the folks who ARE core voters. They have time and read and watch the news. They grew up when civics was part of the class curriculum. These are the people of WWII, Korean and Vietnam Wars. Our youth do vote, but in much lower numbers. That could change if we go into Iran and the draft is reinstated. Those in the state for five or fewer years may not be aware of the York-Whitehouse acrimony and his failed gubernatorial primary then skipping out on her afterwards or Cornell Young, Jennifer Rivera or Scott Hornoff or outsourcing the lead based paint case or feds taking over on PlunderDome, " and higher office is my legacy" debacles. Undoubtedly, if he wins his primary the media will likely high light these facts to stir up the controversy.

Fiction is so much easier to present. After spending in excess of $2 million in advertising, Sheldon's numbers have not moved measurably against Lincoln Chafee in the past two months nor is there much discussion over some base erosion from the caustic nature of the Chafee-Laffey mudslinging of cross-over democrats voting as Independents in the primary or in the general elections.

Is it fantasy to think that primary voters have had enough of machine politics? Strip away the inherited wealth and pedigree education and upbringing. The public has seen clearly their best interests do not necessarily correlate with the most privileged who would spend multiples to gain the power. This might explain why incomes have stagnated compared to those in the top 5% or why working and middle class families serve in the blue uniform of first responders (EMT, fire and police) and the green uniform of our armed services in disproportionate numbers to the affluent. This was not always the case, but certainly has been during the past three decades.

Our campaign trusts Rhode Island voters. We trust many primary voters connected with our Be Patriotic, Impeach Bush and bring our troops home now messages. We trust they have seen us at their gatherings, parishes, banquets, meetings and communities supporting their local candidates and issues. We don't think it's fiction we've seen our gap close to single digits against Sheldon nor do we think it is coincidence he chose to avoid debating or has spent over $2 million thus far in the primary if he thought he had anything to lose with his name recognition so high. The polls won't capture all of the local primary races from folks like you and me who have simply had enough and believe they can do the job better.

Many a million has been spent by the loser. The fact remains is that the only numbers that matter is how many will go to the polls and what issues they want resolved and by whom.

Carl
Sheeler... a working US Senator
www.carlsheeler.com